Agreed. Long periods of low volatility are often followed by dramatic moves.

If you really want leverage, just take out a big loan in your home currency, and then trade yourself right into the land of riches.

Yes... it's that easy... that's why everyone is doing it 

Seriously though, trading is tough stuff. Most people who try it blow out.

I got hooked on mycryptcoin.com before. Those tiny little payouts are addictive - it's like a rat clicking a button to get a munchie in those psych experiments.

Yet the payout is soooo a waste of time...

Lol with my teenie market cap of 1K BTC! Seriously though, thanks for the motivation.

For now I choose long-only with a market-timing component, since that performs better in my experience than the classical "hedge-up/lever-up" approach. The problem with the long/short strategy is that it makes less money, and yet although it may appear to have less risk, in reality you never know when your spreads are going to come apart (think LTCM).

Good points on all counts, and I certainly understand. My objection was to publicly announce positions, but privately sending them to all shareholders makes perfect sense.

So how about this?

(1) I post a monthly update here publicly on the forums each month with the NAV per share etc.
(2) I send out financials privately to all shareholders with the monthly report
(3) Ideally have both reports signed by a trusted auditor

#1 and #2 I will immediately commit to. #3 I would absolutely desire to do as well, but it depends on when/if the GLBSE allows a read-only login for fund auditors. I will toss this idea to him since it would mean he wouldn't have to audit anything himself, and he could still make a commission off of auditors (or however he wants to structure this feature business-wise).

Great ideas, thanks! Keep them coming. I have updated the FAQ.
-cyto

+1

I've been telling people this around the forums, but nobody can see it for some reason. It's the invisible bull run in the USD. The fact that BTC is holding its own truly speaks to the fact that it's a budding market, not a bloated overbought market like most others.

Great idea! Will you be selling physical Bitcoins to people from the bus? That would be cool.

Agreed on #2. I would personally use this service since it would allow me to easily offload some coding work to a contractor without having to actually hire a long-term employee.

Are you planning on starting this yourself?

I'm looking at the month of May 2012:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08517603754

The dollar has been in a bull market since mid-2011 when it made its low. Yet, as I said, I don't expect to see the really major moves up until the YOY(PPIFGS) moves decidedly below -6% and the broader economy sinks into a deflationary spiral.

For one thing, the dollar is soaring.

Also look at recent year-over-year values for the PPIFGS ( produce price index finished goods, which is my favorite price index ):

2011-09-01,7.2%
2011-10-01,6.04%
2011-11-01,5.75%
2011-12-01,4.72%
2012-01-01,4.14%
2012-02-01,3.35%
2012-03-01,2.81%
2012-04-01,1.89%

In a couple weeks we'll have May's numbers and we'll see if we've slipped into deflation yet. We haven't had a solid -6% on this set of data since the great depression, so that's the value I'm looking for to be convinced we've finally entered into a deflationary spiral.

I am still thinking about how to best do this. There is a tradeoff between giving out trading information to competitors vs being transparent for investor trust.

In the meantime, I think the way to go is with regular auditing by a trusted third party:

(1) Every month I will post the current NAV (i.e. price per share) NAV per share, # bitcoins I have on reserve for buy-backs, and fees paid
(2) I will get Nefario to look at the fund's account to verify that the information is correct, and that I am following what I have promised in the contract.
(3) Nefario will sign the audit with his private key.
(4) I will post his signed audit here on the forum with my monthly report.

I'm in talks now with him to see if he would be willing to do this for me. Naturally he would charge a fee which would come from my own pocket each month.

We are now live @ https://glbse.com/asset/view/MOVETO.FUND

381 shares sold thus far - leaving 619 IPO shares available. Hopefully we can get the full 1K sold soon (I personally have a few hundred or so coins I'm still in the process of transferring over). I am also quite excited since we made our first asset purchases today!

Thanks!

If a woman posted a hot enough pic with her asset listing, I would buy it

"So you want to start a company that sells potato guns for bitcoin? Sure, sure, here's a couple hundred K..."

Damn, the only problem I'm having now is that I cannot get price data as far back as I would like from twitter (stupid, stupid twitter ).

So I'm not expecting to really be in full-throttle mode until after the first month of operation. That's why I want to start small .

Yep, MU is definitely something we're looking at. We are absolutely a fund-of-funds when it makes sense to do so.

Lol, good catch, the first one should be 5-3-5-3-5, then the next is just 5-3-5.

I'd fix it but I'm too lazy

N can be anything where N mod 3 = 0. The larger the number, the higher fractal degree you are dealing with.

For example 8 = fib(6), and 6 mod 3 = 0.

So we get:

5 steps forward, 3 steps back ( three times ), giving you 21 steps

then,
5 steps back, 3 steps forward, 5 steps back ( once ), giving you 13 steps

for a grand total of 34 steps



An exampling of using modulus to figure out the type of wave based on the # of sub-waves:

3 waves = fib(4), and 4 mod 3 = 1 -> this is a corrective wave
5 waves = fib(5), and 5 mod 3 = 2 -> this is an impulse wave
8 waves = fib(6), and 6 mod 3 = 0 -> this is a completed wave
13 waves = fib(7), and 7 mod 3 = 1 -> this is a corrective wave
21 waves = fib(, and 8 mod 3 = 2 -> this is an impulse wave
34 waves = fib(9), and 9 mod 3 = 0 -> this is a completed wave
...

Or:
fib(n-1) steps forward, fib(n-2) steps back ( three times ), giving you fib(n+2) steps

then,
fib(n-1) steps back, fib(n-2) steps forward, fib(n-1) steps back ( once ), giving you fib(n+1) steps

for a grand total of fib(n+3) steps

then repeat the whole thing!

( cool random fact: corrective waves, impulse waves, and completed waves can be determined soley from the # of steps by doing inverse-fib and then modulating by 3 )

Hmm... lets see:

(1) I've profited from various business deals relating to bitcoin
(2) I now have assets that no-one can seize or hyperinflate
(3) I have a chance to start my own business with ZERO licensing and legal fees - in the "real world" it would have cost probably half a million dollars to start, therefore requiring me to sell off major equity, deal with corrupt regulatory agencies, etc. ( the big banks own the regulators, their real job is to kill the little guy )
(4) I have made new friends. This forum has a lot of smart and funny people ( not enough women though )
(5) I'm having FUN! A LOT of it.
(6) Bitcoin is awesome. Very.

Hmmm, anything else I'm missing here?