I think it's very likely pirate will be paying *something*, even if it's not the full amount owed.

That said, in the unlikely event of a full default, then instead of selling your assets in the very illiquid GLBSE market, it would make much more sense to make a list of what you have for your creditors. Depending on the assets, I may prefer to take them directly as repayment instead of coins.

Alternatively, I would be willing to negotiate a much lower interest rate for you, so that you don't have to liquidate everything if pirate defaults. Let me know what rate would make it possible for you to repay without having to sell everything off.

Thanks Nick!
-cyto

Thanks for the prompt reply!

So, lets assume that the volatility suddenly spiked far beyond what we saw even on the crash day - in this case, you could potentially have a large loss as you continuously attempt to get in at lower and lower prices awaiting a rally, correct? Because even by having a very large range relative to recent price action, the potential to go far outside that range still exists (and in many studies, these types of volatility spikes have been proven to occur far more often than would be expected by random chance). At what point will you cut losses? There must be an exit strategy here both for winning trades and for losing trades.

I'm not saying I won't invest if you admit to the potential for losses exists; rather, I'm saying the exact opposite. I know that it's impossible to avoid them, so I'd feel much more comfortable knowing what the scenario is that would causes loses so I can properly judge the risk here. Saying "never loses money" doesn't ring right with me at all, it makes me imagine that the volatility bot is doubling down as prices move farther and farther out of the bbands (or whatever you use for volatility measurement), which means no losses for sure until one day it goes poof...

Sorry if my questions are harsh but I must do some due diligence here (it's just business), I mean no harm . Thanks GeoRW!

More liquidity would be great for us. However, as for the particular features, we probably wouldn't use most of them except for maybe occasionally margin and lending securities at high interest rates.

Generally speaking though I'm not a huge fan of leverage. There's enough risk out there as it is and we don't need to compound it.

Making the APIs better and faster would be a huge help though. It's taking much too long each day to update the data. I added a manual pre-filter list which has helped greatly since most of the GLBSE is crap anyway so no reason to bother with data for those assets.

We may do a small amount of shorting in the near future, but only in a very careful and controlled manner, and using a much smarter way of doing it than via the GLBSE's shorting feature... and also, I would only short as a hedging method, never as a purely profit making enterprise (unless some special circumstances arose of course).

btw, NAV per share updated to 1.19739576

Good for you, and I am also considering making a short-term BTC/USD trading bot for my fund. In the meantime, I will consider investing here... but one big problem:


There are many ways to scalp volatility, but I've never ever heard of a system that doesn't have any losing trades. Could you please elaborate?

Hi Nick! Quick question for you: will you be making the interest payment today?

If not, then I assume you will you be compounding the interest for each of your lenders until you get your payout from pirate, correct?

Thanks!
-cyto

EDIT: I'm keeping track of my account with you here, which is:

...
8/17/2012: 2400 @ 2.6%/week = 62.4 payment, made on time
8/24/2012: 2400 @ 2.6%/week = 62.4 payment, no payment received - assume reinvesting interest
8/31/2012: 2462.4 @ 2.6%/week = 64.0224 payment, pending

You know what, i think i understand what has happened: so somehow a bunch of orders were all queued, and when glbse came back up it executed them all in order i think. That's why it was temporarily slow to execute.

that also explains why a bunch of bids I wanted to hit just dissipated all of the sudden...

It won't let me cancel any of my sell orders: it says "Your order has been cancelled", but the order is still there and blocking me from doing any trading!

Sorry for the emergency tone, but this is a very pressing bug.... thanks.

EDIT: Just went through finally, it seems the 10th time is the charm.

EDIT: Just got "Your order has been queued, please do not re-submit" - what is this? I've never gotten this message before, thanks.

The site is down right now... any ideas on when it will be back up?

Quick question for you Goat: since you're winding down your operations, how much do you think you'll be buying back each share for of TYGRR.TECH? Thanks!

#1 I trust Nick's character, which I had cross-referenced by other very trustworthy forum members.
#2 Based on this, I believe Nick that if pirate does default, he will sell off his GLBSE assets and mining equipment to cover the debt (or perhaps we could even negotiate a deal, depending on the assets, to have them directly transferred).
#3 I also believe a pirate default is extremely unlikely, again, based on information about how pirate generates his returns.

Now, if I was depositing money with Dank or Rusty Ryan then you'd have a real reason to worry, but not here. We have deposited with Nick since the very start of the fund, so if you strongly feel this way then you should not have invested with us. We have to take some risk; I cannot generate returns by sitting on coins in cold storage.

Hah I was still editing my post... in any event, no, he has told me that he will pay back in full even if pirate defaults, just that it might take longer for him to liquidate everything:



I have no worries about Nick.

lol guys don't get too excited, we're talking about less than 200 BTC right now, or about 2% of the fund... so yeah, not as exciting as it sounds, but we just don't have much liquid funds. In the past when a short-term opportunity arose I could usually borrow the funds to snag the opportunity in a bigger way, but none of the BTC banks are lending right now . Of course, if there are still good pirate-panic-prices out there over the weekend when we earn our bigger coupons (NCKRAZZE+BDT), then we'll snag them.

Also, it seems that a lot of banks and deposit takers are freezing or even closing operations during this transition period. For example NCKRAZZE, who has been a great rock for a good portion of the fund, is planning on returning funds shortly, and both the Starfish BCB and the BDK are forgoing deposits and halting new loan issuance until the dust has settled. It's going to be an interesting next few weeks...

Yeah, I know you meant it in a good way .

But, I still have to be careful. I'm sure you understand.

Bad wording on my part, it is not insider information, it is public information:


The MoveTo fund has never made any trades based on insider information. The fund is mostly automated and that is what drives our investment decisions; this short-term pirate trade is a one-off thing, and these types of trades are probably going to be very rare going forward.

Indeed it is all very interesting and I wish you luck. As for me, however, I'm waiting my usual 7 week period post-IPO before considering this asset. The market will tell us all very quickly if the asset is mispriced or not, and so I want to see how it trades, what the dividends are, what kind of growth it experiences over the next month+, what kind of competition moves in, and so forth. I don't really care what the pre-IPO numbers say, I only care about what actually occurs in the marketplace.

My best guess is that it's already extremely overvalued at IPO relative to other assets, but that doesn't mean it won't reach a buy area later on after a significant decline in price.

Also, read this, and read it again... this guy gets it:

Good luck with those assets...

The contract has been updated with some very minor changes. Most notably, I am removing the "will not be involved with pirate" clause since it's no longer necessary since pirate is unwinding his operations; additionally, due to recent public information, I have purchased some passthroughs which are selling for huge discounts which should give us a nice quick profit of 30%+ on a very small amount of capital. Obviously, since this temporarily goes against our historical non-pirate stance, I am insuring these investments 100% with my own money, so it is at no risk to the fund: heads you win, tails I lose. But it's just far too easy and profitable a trading opportunity to pass up, and has given us the ability to swap out of our (very few) losing investments such as PUREMINING without suffering further capital loss. We are not, of course, selling any of our winners for the sake of a short-term trade, and so the fund will continue to focus on its normal mission going forward. Note that this modification means that I will offer to buy back any shares at today's NAV per share of 1.18480856, and this offer will be open for one full month.

Here's the new contract:

(0) Each IPO share represents a 1 BTC investment in the fund.
(1) The fund trades and invests primarily in securities on the GLBSE, but may also invest in opportunities outside of the GLBSE.
(2) 80% of earnings are reinvested for fund growth, and 20% are paid out as fees to the fund operator. Fees are paid once a month on the first of the month.
TO CLARIFY:
The 20% fee only applies to the differential between the last high water mark and the new high water mark. This means that I only make money when my investors make money. For example: if we have a losing month, that
means I have to make that money back and then some before I can get paid. (This is also known as a performance fee.) There is no management fee.
(3) The fund operator will buy-back shares on the first of every month upon request to ensure liquidity for exiting MOVETO.FUND. Each share is valued at the NAV per share minus 1% to cover redemption expenses.
(4) New shares may be issued at any time at the NAV per share to ensure liquidity for entering MOVETO.FUND
(5) This contract may be amended in the future provided the operator alerts all investors and offers to buy back shares at the full NAV per share at the time the contract was modified. The buy-back offer must be open for one full month after any modification.

NAV per share updated to 1.1848085612

Note: all is well with BDT

The Starfish seal of approval! Woooooot!

Seriously though, this means a lot to me coming from you, with your impeccable reputation.


Thanks silver. Personally, I absolutely can't stand the non-professional issuers out there. They can cause a lot of pain and misery for people. I've been on the other end of that kind of crap so I know what it's like, and I never want my investors to have to feel that way. Communication with your investors is the key, really: they need to know exactly what's going on with their hard-earned money, good or bad.

Excellent idea. I'll have to look into their APIs and see how easy it is to pull in data from there.


Agreed, and you can consider it done. I was thinking that around three months is a good wait time for new issues to season. Unless others disagree, this should be our new policy, with obvious exceptions for very high rep issuers. And, it will help greatly with sleeping at night. Of course, ZIP.A had been trading much longer than that... so not all scams are avoidable, but our exposure can be strongly mitigated. I'll modify the OP when I do the NAV update (and I'll also remove the now unnecessary "no pirate exposure" clause and replace it with a"no JRO exposure" clause )


Yep, that would be perfect. Then we just filter out everything below a certain rating: bam.


That would be ideal for us. I really don't want bitcoin to go up in price yet. The thing is, I'm so bullish on its long-term potential that I'm just hoping we'll all have sufficient time to accumulate enough coins before the critical-mass point.