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How on earth do you purchase BTC from money in your VirWox account? ITs my first time buying off an exchange and I think I messed up.
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Yes but the odds of hitting less than 8000 on only 5 tries is very low.
It's actually a probability of 0.48 to hit it in 5 or less tries: >>> 1-(1-8000.0/65536)**5
0.478446726626669 ie. you're almost as likely to hit lessthan 8000 in 5 tries or less than you are to fail to hit it. Here's a strategy for winning almost 500 BTC: win on turn 1 : bet = 71.08115510, spent = 71.08165510, win = 568.67660461, lose = 0.35490577, back = 0.00000000, profit = 497.59494951 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 81.18455783, spent = 152.26671293, win = 649.50778702, lose = 0.40542278, back = 0.35490577, profit = 497.59597986 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 92.72404791, spent = 244.99126084, win = 741.82823108, lose = 0.46312023, back = 0.76032855, profit = 497.59729879 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 105.90374931, spent = 350.89551015, win = 847.27100871, lose = 0.52901874, back = 1.22344878, profit = 497.59894734 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 120.95679999, spent = 471.85281014, win = 967.70131497, lose = 0.60428399, back = 1.75246752, profit = 497.60097235 (52.155% to lose all) You'll see that there's a 52% chance of losing all 5 bets (a total of 472 BTC), but if any of the 5 bets win, you'll win 497 BTC. That seems like a good deal to me actually - because it feels like 497.6 * 47.845% is bigger than 471.85 * 52.155% (but, of course, it isn't - there's no "good deal" when playing SatoshiDice...) Also, if you won on the 5th roll, you'd be the 2nd biggest winner in the history of SatoshiDice. But every roll is a different chance to win/lose no? So technically on the 5th roll you still have a 88% chance to lose. |
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Someone was persistently playing lessthan 8000 and it paid off for them: Tue Nov 20 05:31:40 2012 <8000 208722 eb8b51b977bb5a64:1 19kRutygrTJMaBNaTpvcqxW6Lo83Mxz4ie BET 10.00000000 LOSE -9.95050000
Tue Nov 20 05:31:40 2012 <8000 208722 bba8f07ec7364cc0:1 1GJiFfxDLYnF2L5Z9ehCQMBqPsn5RqXTp3 BET 15.00000000 LOSE -14.92550000
Tue Nov 20 05:31:40 2012 <8000 208722 49b5f317aadcb559:1 1AiEHXj9nSGEkBNsfyJo8hS1Xq47cCN6mc BET 20.00000000 LOSE -19.90050000
Tue Nov 20 05:31:40 2012 <8000 208722 0264b139e093621c:1 184QuQ1xbSCCwzjTUoPAS1pBtoJA3KD5ej BET 30.00000000 LOSE -29.85050000
Tue Nov 20 05:36:22 2012 <8000 208723 32b62471ab4170e6:1 1FqzSkJhXDdFRmGHyq2wHFtwvKuz6Vy1Pz BET 51.00000000 WIN 357.01949200 Yes but the odds of hitting less than 8000 on only 5 tries is very low. |
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There will never be reversable transactions.
Well I can imagine there being created a service with legal authority that registers transactions between 'state-registered' addresses that are linked to an individual, or something similar. Just because you don't see the solution to certain problems does not mean somebody else can't come up with one. And like Roger said, escrow is an option too. Good luck with that. Escrow just to exchange money lol. Real legit |
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You arent being realistic at all. I dont hate bitcoin and dong care for it either so im not biased whatsoever. Bitcoin is difficult to get compared to fiat money. You have no guarantee that you will even get the coins after you purchase them and there is nothing you can do about it if someone decides to rip you off. Im not talking about trasnfering my coins to a wallet. Thats simple and means nothing becausey ou already have the coins. So pelase tell me what happens whne you purchase coins and dont receive them? Do just go complain on a forum? Pretty much all you can do.
Bitcoin has only existed for less than 4 years, with very little people knowing about it in the beginning (and still), did you really expect there to be an entire foolproof service package and legal system to be built around it already? As time goes on it will become more and more clear which services are reliable businesses in it for the long haul, and which ones are scammers that want to make some quick bucks. Moreover, as the economy groes bigger, it should get easier and easier to get bitcoins, with lower fees and smaller spreads. The economy has nothing to do with the difficulty in obtaining bitcoins. There will never be reversable transactions. |
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Of course, to the extent that it IS "difficult and expensive to buy bitcoins," the problem is entirely on the side of the legacy payment systems. Thus, it would be more accurate to say "it's difficult and expensive to transact with fiat." And that's precisely why Bitcoin will be successful. I remember, when I first got into Bitcoin, having to figure out how to send an international wire transaction. It was kind of a pain. It cost me 45 bucks to send a thousand. And it was like three days before the money was credited to my newly-created Mt. Gox account. After purchasing my bitcoins, it took me about ten seconds to transfer them to my personal wallet. At a cost of less than a penny. Those contrasting experiences really drove it home for me. It's like the Berlin wall. The barriers aren't really there to keep you out of Bitcoinland. They're really to keep you locked in Fiatville. And like the Berlin wall, they're ultimately doomed to fail.
You arent being realistic at all. I dont hate bitcoin and dong care for it either so im not biased whatsoever. Bitcoin is difficult to get compared to fiat money. You have no guarantee that you will even get the coins after you purchase them and there is nothing you can do about it if someone decides to rip you off. Im not talking about trasnfering my coins to a wallet. Thats simple and means nothing becausey ou already have the coins. So pelase tell me what happens whne you purchase coins and dont receive them? Do just go complain on a forum? Pretty much all you can do. |
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Not all methods of buying bitcoins have that many middlemen. LocalBitcoins is a site that has users in 86 countries and over 400 cities. It's a free to use platform that makes it easier to have face to face meetings and exchange bitcoins and local currencies. It's also way more anonymous than using the exchanges. I primarily use exchanges but I do use LocalBitcoins as well. It's a good site. https://localbitcoins.com/Then I have to meet some random person who knows that Ill have a bunch of money on me face to face. That usualy works out well :S |
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Im taking preorders for asics im building. $500 for 5 Thash. Let me know if you want to buy them. Ill be shipping them in December. Well, that was easy.
That joke's about 5 months too old. Try again later. I didnt say it was a joke did I? Try again. |
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Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
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I have a couple of Jalapenos on order, but put the order in quite late (September). With orders from June to August to fill I don't expect to get mine until well into next year. May be a bit too late by then as difficulty will skyrocket and we'll be back to square one in terms of bitcoins per kWh.
I also have a bet on Bets of Bitcoin that no BFL ASIC products will ship to end users before 1 December.
I sure hope not, BTC will fail. And I can guarentee you I will dedicate my PC to something else. This project has too much potential to let some random hardware company run it down the drain. It needs some serious administration in order to succeed. Blowing everyone out of the water by offering "pre-order" hardware and raising the difficulty won't help. Hmmm, what to do; what to do. Im taking preorders for asics im building. $500 for 5 Thash. Let me know if you want to buy them. Ill be shipping them in December. Well, that was easy. |
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I have a credit card and paypal but I cant buy coins at the going rate. That there is the biggest hindrence. != Liquidity.
This forum is more worried about trying to correct people and show how intelligent they are than any other forum ive seen. If you read my post you'll fully understand. It is pretty straight forward regardless of me saying liquidity or illiquidity. Its a liquidity issue. People aren't trying to show how smart they are, they're just trying to be specific about the language because it makes communication easier. There are already enough tough concepts to master without the definitions being mixed up. That said, liquidity is a special term that's reserved for some other meaning. It's something along the lines of "the number of transactions per second under various conditions". A more likely cause of your complaint (high prices) is lack of competition. There are not enough vendors willing to make Bitcoin-Paypal transactions, so the ones that do exist charge excessive fees. Maybe they've even formed a cartel? It's the same when I try to do forex transactions. I go on oanda.com or some other such site, and see all these fantastic exchange rates. However, when I want to actually make such a transaction using a bank, they skim a huge percentage and then have the gall to charge a 'transaction fee' on top of the massive fee they already charged! No, high prices is not a bitcoin problem. Illiquidity is. Its to hard to get coins. You need to go through to many middlemen just to make a simple purchase. Please elaborate on "too many middlemen". Sounds like a case of "you're doing it wrong". Its starting to sound like you dont understand how to purchase bitcoins. You cant just buy bitcoins without going through at least 2 types of exchanges. Minimum being Bank wire > MTGox |
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I have a credit card and paypal but I cant buy coins at the going rate. That there is the biggest hindrence. != Liquidity.
This forum is more worried about trying to correct people and show how intelligent they are than any other forum ive seen. If you read my post you'll fully understand. It is pretty straight forward regardless of me saying liquidity or illiquidity. Its a liquidity issue. People aren't trying to show how smart they are, they're just trying to be specific about the language because it makes communication easier. There are already enough tough concepts to master without the definitions being mixed up. That said, liquidity is a special term that's reserved for some other meaning. It's something along the lines of "the number of transactions per second under various conditions". A more likely cause of your complaint (high prices) is lack of competition. There are not enough vendors willing to make Bitcoin-Paypal transactions, so the ones that do exist charge excessive fees. Maybe they've even formed a cartel? It's the same when I try to do forex transactions. I go on oanda.com or some other such site, and see all these fantastic exchange rates. However, when I want to actually make such a transaction using a bank, they skim a huge percentage and then have the gall to charge a 'transaction fee' on top of the massive fee they already charged! No, high prices is not a bitcoin problem. Illiquidity is. Its to hard to get coins. You need to go through to many middlemen just to make a simple purchase. |
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I have a credit card and paypal but I cant buy coins at the going rate. That there is the biggest hindrence. != Liquidity.
This forum is more worried about trying to correct people and show how intelligent they are than any other forum ive seen. If you read my post you'll fully understand. It is pretty straight forward regardless of me saying liquidity or illiquidity. Its a liquidity issue. |
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I have a credit card and paypal but I cant buy coins at the going rate.
Because the going rate is based on irreversible payment methods. Credit card, PayPal? "Great, I received 20000 BTC, now it's time to call my credit card company/PayPal and tell them to reverse the charge because 'the goods weren't received' or 'I was hacked'! Then I can sell the BTC for gold and I'll be fucking rich!" That's exactly my point. Liquidity is the main bitcoin problem. Make sure you read the entire post before commenting. |
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Im not great with odds but can anyone tell me the odds of getting 3 seperate transaction rolls over 64 000 in a row? I know that its about 2.5% to get 1 roll over 64000.
Yes, I can. You probably mean 64000 or over, since 64000 is a losing roll when you're playing "lessthan 64000" too. The probability of losing a single "lessthan 64000" is: >>> 1 - 64000/65536.0
0.0234375 Or about a 1-in-42.666 shot. To find the probability of it happening 3 times in a row, you just cube that number: >>> (1 - 64000/65536.0)**3
1.2874603271484375e-05 That's scientific notation for 0.00001287, and represents a 1-in-77672 shot. In other words, it's pretty unlikely and probably has never happened since "lessthan 64000" has been played less than 9000 times. It may have happened of course - it wouldn't be incredibly unlikely. Not like losing 60 "lessthan 32000" bets in a row, which is so unlikely it will almost certainly never happen. Edit: note that you'll need to multiply probabilities by 100 to get percentages. And note also that 42.666 cubed is 77672. Edit 2: I notice you didn't specify that you were playing "lessthan 64000" at the time. It's much more likely that someone has got three rolls over 64000 in a row when they were playing other bets. It's just that "lessthan 64000" is a relatively unpopular bet, and wasn't even available for probably half of SatoshiDice's lifetime so far. Thanks for the reply. It happened to me. This is why I was so adament about wanting to know if this game can be rigged at all. This isnt the first time this has happened to me either. |
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Im not great with odds but can anyone tell me the odds of getting 3 seperate transaction rolls over 64 000 in a row? I know that its about 2.5% to get 1 roll over 64000.
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And after all that, Dmytri is still correct. If you think bitcoin is going to replace govt currencies then you are so far out to left field you dont need to reply. This place is just like Apple forums. Fanboys. You do raise some good points though.
Typically an assertion like that is followed by an argument. WHY do you think Bitcoin can't replace government currencies? If you arent taxed how do you think all those highways and roads and thousands of other things are paid for? There is no centralization we see scams all the time and there is nothing you can do about it. Your computer gets hacked you are done. Dotn care how many backs up you have it takes a matter of seconds to empty your wallet once its broken in to and you will not be reimbursed by anyone. I can go on and on. Mostly the arguments why bitcoin is superior are just lousy points aka quick transaction times and low fees, yawn. And don't get me started on "if there is no centralization we see scams all the time"... It is the centralized State which is the largest scam of all. That may be so but if someone hacked my comptuer and emptied my bank account I would get reimbursed 100% by the banks and they would even investigate on their own terms.. With bitcoins will get back 100% of nothing. It just gone to some unknown hash address. I understand your passion towares bitcoins since you run a very profitable bitcoin gambling site but realistically there are far to many negatives for bitcoin to become anything more than a novelty item. Its increasingly difficult for me to even buy bitcoins. Its pathetic. I have a credit card and paypal but I cant buy coins at the going rate. That there is the biggest hindrence. Liquidity. |
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And after all that, Dmytri is still correct. If you think bitcoin is going to replace govt currencies then you are so far out to left field you dont need to reply. This place is just like Apple forums. Fanboys. You do raise some good points though.
Typically an assertion like that is followed by an argument. WHY do you think Bitcoin can't replace government currencies? If you arent taxed how do you think all those highways and roads and thousands of other things are paid for? There is no centralization we see scams all the time and there is nothing you can do about it. Your computer gets hacked you are done. Dotn care how many backs up you have it takes a matter of seconds to empty your wallet once its broken in to and you will not be reimbursed by anyone. I can go on and on. Mostly the arguments why bitcoin is superior are just lousy points aka quick transaction times and low fees, yawn. |
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And after all that, Dmytri is still correct. If you think bitcoin is going to replace govt currencies then you are so far out to left field you dont need to reply. This place is just like Apple forums. Fanboys. You do raise some good points though.
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For GPU miners, we have our last month of profitability on the menu.
They said that last month and the month before and will continue to say it for a few more months. |
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