A common and recurring theme in this thread are two things:

• Friedcat has not lived up to his promise of keeping 10% of the network
• ASICMINER is ripping of their customers, because the hardware will most likely not get a positive ROI

ASICMINER has produced a bit more than 1 PH, which at current network capacity is about 22% of the network. So one way to look at it would be the following: ASICMINER have gotten more than the expected income of about 22% of the whole network so far, with some of it kept back for further development and salaries. How anybody thinks that ASICMINER or friedcat failed is beyond me. Also, the paid out profits so far are only for the first 500TH, so while the income will be way less than for the first 500TH, investors still have some to come.
Current valuation could still be appropriate depending on the assumed risks that necessarily exist with developing better hardware, but I think ASICMINER have the money for pretty much any developer on the whole world, if they wanted to.

Well, if I had made perfect decisions, my 60 euros I had invested would now be 250k. This way, they are at about 35-60k, depending on the current value of bitcoin, and that is with having  "diversified" a few k to euros to hedge against a bitcoin crash. Of course it would be nice to have a quarter million, but you know... I was to lazy to get myself into  bitcoins in the very beginning, because I didn't see it going anywhere, now I am a firm believer and won't even exchange a whole anymore unless it hits 5-10k each, which would probably also mean that I wouldn't have to because I could just pay with them directly.

Of course people are locking in profits, because I am fairly sure that bitcoin will dip again soon. That is the benefit of the early adopters that they can now take all those shiny Winklevoss dollar bills we are all so opposed to...
Also, US senate.

That said, with the amount of money and us selling about 10-12% of current network capacity in the last week and the next weeks, I don't see why more people are selling, but it is the small(er) investors that are on Havelock. But if I were one of the whales, I'd sell 100-200 shares right now, cash out to Euros or dollars, and buy myself a new car. Bonus points if you cashed out at 5

I know, but just another thing the detractors keep forgetting. ASICMINER should be able to get even higher prices as they are close to the only ones delivering within days, reducing network risk by a huge margin. So why aren't they getting close to marginal pricing instead of giving them away for "cheap"?

Them already being out of stock just goes to prove wrong all the people in this thread who continue arguing that ASICMINER is too expensive compared to the others

Just because I do not want to lose profit I am not invested for the short-term. Stupid example: If apple stopped all sales because they didn't order new stock early enough and were sidetracked by their new curvy iphones, is that not a thing that even long-term investors should not be happy about?

It would always be a bad investment if it's value is going down in the currency in which it is nominated... Why even bother with the conversion to fiat?

Each week of patience is lost profit...

There isn't enough money in all of Bitcoin to fund this...

Don't have the exact quote, but didn't friedcat say that multiple teams were developing in parallel for ASICMINER? That would significantly increase their chances.

For the people worried about the 40nm talk here when others are using 28nm: check this article about "real" feature size, not marketing blub.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/the-status-of-moores-law-its-complicated

(and never forget the energy density of these chips.s..)

Well, I took a quite a bit out in the beginning, but it's still a few K of fiat I have currently invested. I have currently split my "investment" in three parts. I took about 100 times my initial investment denominated in fiat out of BTC. Then I have about 10x my initial investment in straight up BTC and am speculating on a price increase. And then I have, at current networth, about 200x my initial investment in ASICMINER. So while this investment seems riskier every week and I am straight up betting that nobody in their right mind can have wasted that much money on nothing (I mean friedcat here) that there will be a slight rebound in share price or at least a stabilization and slight increase in dividends. Even if it is only towards the end of this year/beginning of next year. There are a few possibilities where I see that ASICMINER could really soar; one of them is the securities market, to which a local branch in Hongkong would be well suited. But all this is dreams on my side; it is just that I am willing to bet that much on a very risky bet, although my chances in heads-up hold'em would probably be better

Hope != expect

Hi Friedcat,

I was also hoping for a bit of information rather than just historic information that is not really all that surprising? Where in the development of the 2nd 2ndgen are we? I see 200k of NRE in the budget. Is that for tape-out for the new ones or for the old 2nd-gen?

I don't know, the more was kept back, the better earnings asicminer had. So that could very well be a deciding factor. But you are right, just having a few more coins on hand would should not make a difference.

Divs have been paid for me on Havelock (migrated AM100 from btct)

I think that selling miners currently is probably more profitable than mining, although I have the impression we are missing out on quite a bit of bitcoins. But there is no way (for me) to judge how ASICMINER is actually fairing as long as dividends are being withheld and no statement on financials.

That is: Maybe we are actually still making quite a bit, but nobody really knows about it. I have a feeling that the Gen-1 boards are still in high demand, even though they are inefficient, just because of better $/Gh

I just wish that all of my shares had been in btct at high point, and not only 2/3s of it But that was risk management and now it is too late I guess.

With now even less shares on havelock and bitfunder than ever were on btct, I have completely lost any feeling for the true price. I'd expect it to be somewhere around 1 BTC with everything I've read, but maybe others have a different outlook on risk. With the small security of known values, it is impossible to calculate it anyway without attaching arbitrary values to network growth, probability of AM delivering and so on.
 

Was this supposed to be the answer? I wanted to know how far the design is, possibly projected energy usage, hashing power per Watt and chip, if similar delays as with gen1 can be expected or if it will go smooth and so on, not something like: we haven't yet decided on the order size, that's it.