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1  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - Temporary shut down annoucement on: October 27, 2016, 02:47:23 PM
Temporary shut down announcement

Please see original post for details.
2  Economy / Gambling / Best kind of bonus for a sportsbook on: October 25, 2016, 08:09:47 PM
Hi guys,

I am in charge of the sportsbook PrediMarket and currently trying to think of some kind of bonus that we could offer to our customers.
However, due to the particular nature of our book, it proves a bit more difficult to find the right bonus compared to other classical bookmakers.

Could you please suggest the type of bonuses that you like most?

Thanks!
3  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 25, 2016, 08:02:59 PM
Here are our odds for the Full Time Result market of this upcoming game:

Tottenham vs Leicester
Premier League - Round 10
29 Oct 2016 14:00:00 UTC

 | Min Depth | Avg Depth | Max Depth
Back Home | 1.707 (0.00010000 BTC) | 1.636 (0.08640000 BTC) | 1.426 (0.48670000 BTC)
Back Draw | 4.014 (0.00010000 BTC) | 3.678 (0.04290000 BTC) | 3.416 (0.08580000 BTC)
Back Away | 5.708 (0.00010000 BTC) | 5.238 (0.02680000 BTC) | 4.866 (0.05360000 BTC)

 | Min Depth | Avg Depth | Max Depth
Lay Home | 1.742 (0.00010000 BTC)  | 1.831 (0.08640000 BTC)  | 1.999 (0.20730000 BTC)  |
Lay Draw | 4.096 (0.00010000 BTC)  | 5.253 (0.08640000 BTC)  | 32.232 (0.19290000 BTC)  |
Lay Away | 5.826 (0.00010000 BTC)  | 7.865 (0.06480000 BTC)  | 42.581 (0.12970000 BTC)  |

Check out more games and markets at predimarket.net!
Very high odds, Instant Deposit and Withdrawal
4  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 24, 2016, 08:53:29 AM
@bestgr

Thank you for your suggestion!

After discussing it internally, we think it's an excellent idea and we will implement in our next release. I cannot tell you now what the wages threshold will be but it will be certainly made public when the new version of the website goes live.
5  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 23, 2016, 06:01:49 PM
@bestgr

Again thanks for your feedback.

Skipping the human verification step would actually save us a significant workload.
We'll keep collecting opinions here and there and if people are willing to take the risk of an error, then we will grade the bets automatically: theoretically, it means players would get their payoffs about half an hour after the end of the game.
6  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 23, 2016, 10:21:44 AM
Thanks for your input!

I think bullets 1) and 3) can be implemented in our next release.
I am not so sure about 2) because of space management reasons (website has to functional from both desktop and mobile).

As for bullet 4), the cashout has been disabled for the time being (it was accessible from the Action drop-down button). Actually, it was functional when we offered only back bets but with the introduction of lay bets, it needs to be reworked to allow not only a full resell of the bet but any fraction (from 0% to 100%) of it. I am not sure if this is clear from the website in its current form.
But anyways, the cashout actually consists in placing a bet in the other way to counter your current position. For example, if you had a back bet on the Home victory, the cashout would place a lay bet on the Home victory with the same "magnitude" but with a cost calculated according to all the wages placed on the market so far. As a result, in practice, you can still cashout "manually" by placing an inverse bet: the cashout option simply made the exact match for you in terms of magnitude and made it clearer for the user.

Edit: Just saw your edit. The results of the fixtures are received automatically but we do require a manual confirmation of it before settling the bets. I understand it is a hindrance for players but if by any chance the result set for the fixture is not right (data provider mistake or whatever), then it might be difficult to reverse the payments as players could withdraw their money immediately. We could actually get rid of this manual confirmation step if we state that the game result as set in our system is subject to errors but cannot be argued about. Note that when I say errors might occur, it is probably around 0.1% of the time but still, the player experiencing it will be (legitimately) angry. You seem to be a seasoned gambler: do you think players would accept such terms i.e. trading game result reliability (0.1% of the time) against fast settlement?
7  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 22, 2016, 07:11:14 PM
Hi bestgr,

Sorry about your misfortune but thanks for reporting: we will investigate the issue asap.

Meanwhile, you can send me a private message with the e-mail you used for registering: I'll enable your account directly.

Best regards,
PrediMarket
8  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 19, 2016, 09:24:17 PM
@braila

Sorry but I don't really understand your concern.

Why have we low margins? To attract bettors.
Is this site a scam? No, otherwise you can be sure people would have raged in the thread.
9  Economy / Gambling / Re: Calculating the EV of a Casino Bonus on: October 15, 2016, 12:32:54 PM
If you want a clear answer, you should state precisely all the details about the situation you want to analyze.

For example, what fraction of the bonus must be gambled at each round? Depending on it, the answer will change dramatically.
Assuming, you have to gamble it entirely at each round, then the fraction of the bonus you end up after a single round is 100% - 10% = 90% = 0.9
Starting with 1BTC, you get 1 * 0.9 = 0.9BTC after one round.
The second one yields 0.9*0.9 and so on...

The formula for the EV after n consecutive plays of the totality of the bonus is: 1*0.9^n (i.e. bonus*(1 - house edge)^n) which obviously tends towards 0 as n grows to infinity.
It is never 0 for any finite n, but in practice the EV will fall under one satoshi which will be rounded as 0.
10  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: October 14, 2016, 03:50:39 PM
Here are our odds for the Full Time Result market of this upcoming game:

Chelsea vs Leicester
Premier League - Round 8
15 Oct 2016 11:30:00 UTC


|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Back Home|1.718 (0.00010000 BTC)|1.641 (0.07260000 BTC)|1.401 (0.45290000 BTC)
Back Draw|4.149 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.761 (0.03680000 BTC)|3.467 (0.07360000 BTC)
Back Away|5.345 (0.00010000 BTC)|4.853 (0.02610000 BTC)|4.472 (0.05230000 BTC)

|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Lay Home|1.735 (0.00010000 BTC)|1.832 (0.07260000 BTC)|2.037 (0.18160000 BTC)
Lay Draw|4.193 (0.00010000 BTC)|5.584 (0.07260000 BTC)|41.847 (0.14650000 BTC)
Lay Away|5.403 (0.00010000 BTC)|7.281 (0.05500000 BTC)|36.430 (0.11000000 BTC)

Check out more games and markets at predimarket.net!
Very high odds, Instant Deposit and Withdrawal
11  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - The Unique Bitcoin Sportsbook - as low as 1% margin on Soccer on: September 29, 2016, 03:27:28 PM
Here are our odds for the Full Time Result market of this upcoming game:

Sparta Prague vs Inter
UEFA Europa League - Round 2
29 Sep 2016 17:00:00 UTC


|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Back Home|3.242 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.181 (0.04410000 BTC)|3.123 (0.08830000 BTC)
Back Draw|3.343 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.280 (0.04220000 BTC)|3.220 (0.08440000 BTC)
Back Away|2.485 (0.00010000 BTC)|2.438 (0.06730000 BTC)|2.393 (0.13460000 BTC)

|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Lay Home|3.275 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.389 (0.07500000 BTC)|3.590 (0.18750000 BTC)
Lay Draw|3.376 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.500 (0.07500000 BTC)|3.718 (0.18750000 BTC)
Lay Away|2.510 (0.00010000 BTC)|2.568 (0.07500000 BTC)|2.663 (0.18750000 BTC)

Check out more games and markets at predimarket.net!
Very high odds, Instant Deposit and Withdrawal
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 28, 2016, 06:50:28 PM
For those who only talk about luck, check this out:

https://sports.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-life-of-a-professional-gambler

Unless it's a fake, there might be more than luck in gambling...

Nice article, But it is true? According to his way the gambling is not based on luck, It's fully based on mathematics calculations. I don't know how maths will work in gambling. I think he will play only skill base games. So he is saying that he develop a program for betting, and he will make every week 10k euros. Is this possible in gambling?

He's only talking about sports betting. For the rest of gambling, you can only resort to luck.

Sport betting is a type of activities whereby you can increase your chance of winning by having a proper research. So if you have done sufficient research, you can have an advantage and this can help you to profit even in the long run. Another possible activity is poker.

Yes, you are right. When I said the rest of gambling, I had casino games in mind, not card games where you might indeed profit from your skill. But that's not an area that I know much of.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 28, 2016, 05:59:47 PM
For those who only talk about luck, check this out:

https://sports.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-life-of-a-professional-gambler

Unless it's a fake, there might be more than luck in gambling...

Nice article, But it is true? According to his way the gambling is not based on luck, It's fully based on mathematics calculations. I don't know how maths will work in gambling. I think he will play only skill base games. So he is saying that he develop a program for betting, and he will make every week 10k euros. Is this possible in gambling?

He's only talking about sports betting. For the rest of gambling, you can only resort to luck.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 28, 2016, 05:38:16 PM
For those who only talk about luck, check this out:

https://sports.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-life-of-a-professional-gambler

Unless it's a fake, there might be more than luck in gambling...

EDIT: quoted from the article:

I developed a programme myself that works completely off of mathematics. My bets have nothing to do with luck. I never leave anything up to a gut feeling, it's all about my calculations.
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 28, 2016, 05:36:47 PM
It seems very hard to find two different bitcoin websites that will give you high enough odds to make that work. I didn't really understand the second part and your formulas are really not clean, you could have made it much simpler.

For fiat money websites, you do have comparison tools which show you sure bet opportunities like http://www.bmbets.com/sure-bets/ (not my site fyi).
For bitcoin betting sites, there might be similar tools but none that I am aware of.

In order to find such opportunities, your best chance is to hover websites which have low overround (i.e. margin) like https://predimarket.net (this is my site fyi) and make a little spreadsheet with predefined formulas computing the overround.

And what is the second part you refer to?


The part with the bookie and their odds. So you are basically calculating the profit based on what the bookie expectations or odds are but how can you take advantage of that?

I assume you are talking about "value betting" not "sure betting".

A value bet is a betting opportunity where you think one outcome (e.g. the victory of whatever team or player) is more likely to occur than the odds of the bookmaker actually suggest. If you check the calculations in the original post, I am showing how to compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker towards the game. Using the formula I gave, you can calculate the probability of victory of team A according to the bookmaker and see what he actually thinks is going to happen in the end.
I also gave a formula to compute the margin that the bookie takes, to give you a better idea of how "greedy" he is.
The opinion (i.e. probabilities) and margin are simple metrics that can help you decide if the bet is worth something or not.

As per how to take advantage of that, you need to first "decide" what your own probabilities are and then compare them to the odds of the bookmaker (see OP).

An example of that:

A plays against B and you can bet on either A or B.
Assume that you compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker and find that he thinks that A has 60% chance to win and B has 40% chance to win.
You also compute the margin and find 5% (that makes an overround of 1.05).
(All of this combined means the odds for A and B are respectively 1.587 and 2.380)

Now you need to "decide" what is your opinion of the game A vs B, in terms of probabilities: is it 65% for A and 35% for B, or maybe 70% | 30% or even 60% | 30% like the bookmaker. These values are yours to decide, they are up to your knowledge and expertise of the game.

If you think A has 65% chance of winning, then you compare this value to the inverse of the odds for A i.e. 1/1.587 which is equal to 0.630 roughly: you can see that it is smaller than 65% (=0.65). In these conditions, betting on A is an opportunity from your point of view and you should bet on A.
On the contrary, if you think A has no more than 60% chance of winning, then you should not bet on A (at this bookie at least) given that 0.60 < 0.630.

Of course, there's a thin line between assessing the chances of winning at 60% or 65% but this is what can give you an edge. And more realistically, you should only bet when you notice a significant difference between your probability and the bookmaker's, just to give you room for estimation errors.




Ok but in that case couldn't you profit just from copying the bookies predictions? Always betting on the team he thinks has better odds, obviously the profit won't be much but as you said they are pretty accurate, not 100% so you might as well just copy them no? After all when you bet on a team you always bet on it because you think its gonna win no matter what the bookie says, have you tried your "strategy" long term?

If you share exactly the same opinion as the bookmaker, then making the bet with this bookmaker is always a bad idea.

Take my last example: if you think A has also 60% chance of winning, then you compare 60% (=0.6) to 1/1.587 (i.e one divided by the odds of A) which is equal to 0.630 roughly.
Given that 0.6 is smaller than 0.630, then betting on this game is a bad idea (at this bookie at least).

It is actually important to consider the differences between your opinion and the one of the bookmaker. Because then, you can apply this rule (if you choose to go for value betting) and in the long run (after a significant number of bets), that kind of betting discipline will be fruitful.

About your question regarding myself using those strategies, the answer is no and here's why.

Firstly, I wanted to make my own sportsbook (PrediMarket) because I have been developing a whole range of pricing techniques for bookmakers that I wanted to put into practice.

Then, sportsbetting being a very competitive field, I thought I could also turn myself as well into a gambler, to increase my revenue but I would only do that if I could automate a betting strategy because it is the accumulation of bets that can yield a relatively sure profit.

However, for the two basic strategies I described, there are significant obstacles that I cannot overcome for now:
  • sure betting strategy: you need at least 2 bitcoin bookies which provide an API but currently, there's only one that I know of (BETBTC)
  • value betting strategy: I would need to create an algorithm to produce probabilities for each game, based on historical data. While I have already done that for simple cases (like intra-league games), it gets more complicated when you are dealing with games involving from different leagues like UEFA Champion's League which might have never played against each other.

Although, it is difficult to automate such strategies, you can still apply them at a human level and they will prove useful.
If I tell you I hold a PhD in Applied Mathematics in Economy, would that convince you a bit more? Smiley
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 28, 2016, 04:55:18 PM
When you convince yourself that there is some right way,smart way or safer way to gamble this is first wrong step in my opinion. I have been in gambling for over 10 years and can say on based of my experience gambling is taking risk straight where you can win or loose in any type of gambling. Sports betting is not safer or smart way either as you may loose on any strong team.

Two centuries ago, people would never fly in machines made of metal for their whole life and would have told you that it is impossible to do so.

There are techniques that can help you play better at sportsbetting. It gets mathematical quite quickly but if you stick to the basic principles (like the ones I exposed), it is not that difficult and could make a difference in your winnings: you might not be able to be profitable, but you will surely lose less money.
17  Economy / Gambling / Re: In which language top gambling sites are coded ? on: September 28, 2016, 11:48:21 AM
Just out of curiosity, why would you want to know what languages/technologies are used for gambling sites?
18  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrediMarket.net - Advanced Sportsbook Exchange on: September 28, 2016, 08:11:24 AM
Here are our odds for the Full Time Result market of this upcoming game:

Atl. Madrid vs Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League - Round 2
28 Sep 2016 18:45:00 UTC


|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Back Home|3.113 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.053 (0.04680000 BTC)|2.997 (0.09360000 BTC)
Back Draw|3.297 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.234 (0.04290000 BTC)|3.174 (0.08590000 BTC)
Back Away|2.594 (0.00010000 BTC)|2.544 (0.06240000 BTC)|2.497 (0.12480000 BTC)

|Min Depth|Avg Depth|Max Depth
Lay Home|3.145 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.250 (0.07470000 BTC)|3.433 (0.18690000 BTC)
Lay Draw|3.330 (0.00010000 BTC)|3.452 (0.07470000 BTC)|3.666 (0.18690000 BTC)
Lay Away|2.620 (0.00010000 BTC)|2.686 (0.07470000 BTC)|2.796 (0.18690000 BTC)

Check out more games and markets at predimarket.net!
Very high odds, Instant Deposit and Withdrawal
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 27, 2016, 04:23:36 PM
so, you're talking only about betting on sports right? because that wasn't clear and i feel like many people were coming here expecting to see a dice betting bot.

yeah it is. and since it is a long wall of text i doubt that anybody is going to read it completely especially since the majority of users around here are betting in dice games.

and to be honest he lost me right in the 4th paragraph when said sports betting and "trading" since they have nothing in common Smiley

The trading he is mentioning is basically selling or buying into the fact that a certain event is going to happen. This is gambling, as the event outcome is unknown.

It is like buying into a bet saying Trump will win the elections. To me that is still betting.

Trading is a very general term to designate the activity on financial markets: it can mean buying/selling commodities, hedging against some risks...

When you trade, you make a contract with another party and you could design for example a hedging contract that will pay you 100,000$ if Trump is elected (because it may be bad for your immigration-related business) and 0$ if Clinton wins. Of course, that contract has a price which you pay upfront.

And if you compare it to sports betting, well it is exactly the same thing.  Tongue
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to gamble the right way on: September 27, 2016, 04:16:29 PM
so, you're talking only about betting on sports right? because that wasn't clear and i feel like many people were coming here expecting to see a dice betting bot.

Yes, I mentioned it in the beginning:

"Also note that I will only talk about betting on real events like sport games (typically sports betting or trading on prediction markets)."

And pro tip: (normally) there should be no way to make a profitable dice betting bot since dice is a just a game of chance which is rigged in favor of the gambling house. The chance in a computer is simulated by random number generators (which are not actually random if they purely rely on software) and unless you know the pattern of the random number generator, you cannot take a statistical advantage over the program, unless of course it has been coded by a donkey and there's an obvious flaw that you can exploit.
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