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181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 01:12:20 AM
Now that we are in reverse it is only a matter of time before someone arbs by buying up all the cheap coins on stamp and dump on the higher exchanges. Equilibrium looks above 600 as of now.

You would think someone would do that but the market is going down so it is risky

585$ on Bistamp and it went down as low as 569$

It went down to 550$ on Stamp. Are you blind or a retard?
182  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 10, 2014, 01:05:49 AM
As per friedcat the (already paid for) inventory of 60P listed in the balance sheet of 27/5 will last for 1 to 1.5 months till being completely sold.
I leave it up to your imagination when the cashflow will be positive. Cheesy

Kudos for the moment to the guy(s) continuously dumping shares. Whether your intentions are panic or trying to keep the price low and digging up more cheap shares (successfully as apparently you find enough sheep)... you will definitely get burned. I will dance on your graves. Tongue
183  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 08, 2014, 05:28:25 PM
What we need a system without someone needing to be trusted.

I don't think its possible with how AM works.  AM sells a physical product, and needs to get paid for it.  They then take those funds and use them to pay out dividends.  An all digital business could be made into a DAC, but one where you need to manage inventory, three different currencies, and all that sort of thing?  You need a person to manage it, and then you need to trust that person.

And even if you did work out all those problems, in an industry like mining, if you did have everything managed by a DAC somehow, and shareholders voted... the business would expose itself to having any and all competitors knowing exactly what it is doing and planing to do, you need to keep some plans under wraps in the industry.

Not sure what you are exactly talking about. But I believe the discussion was about the exchange of shares. Wink
184  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 05, 2014, 11:38:06 PM
These dump-attempts are cute.
Who in his right mind would sell to bids in an uptrending market?!
Keep on trying and get burned! ^^
185  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 05, 2014, 10:22:35 PM
Where are the whales?
186  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 08:22:17 PM
I have 10 shares of ASICMINER, but haven't gotten a dividend since March 30th. Should I contact friedcat, or did I miss some news?

Everything was answered in friedcat's latest post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7147330#msg7147330

Yes. You are very smart. That is why you just entered the ignore-lists of many people.
187  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 05, 2014, 07:13:47 PM
I wonder when the people will realize what is going on and eventually pull their old sales orders...
188  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 05:29:42 PM
Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Basically correct, but I believe we can't sell for $0.5/GH/s in the future. That batch will be sold within the next 1.5 months, so we'll achieve a price of about $0.35/GH/s. And we should brace for a price above $700. Also, FC's wording seems to suggest that we won't adjust the chip price that much but rather sell more chips.

My calculation for those interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7148348#msg7148348


I used to worry about the rising USD/BTC exchange rate, but it appears that AM has the production capacity to pump out chips.

If the exchange rate goes up and AM doesn't change the price per chip, then sales volume should increase to offset volatility. ....because as USD/BTC goes up, each chip earns more USD (also need to account for difficulty increase).

Ideally BTC/USD should rise equivalently to the difficulty. In that scenario a stable $ sales-price would make sense.
189  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 03:32:45 PM
fc "kind of" answered to the BTC/USD issue. Although I honestly don't really get what he means with that.

(...)

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

(...)

That means the market demand for Gen3, it depends on the BTC price. With a higher BTC price, we can expect a higher inventory turnover. For $700/BTC, it's 1-1.5.


That makes sense. Thank you.
190  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 03:28:18 PM
fc "kind of" answered to the BTC/USD issue. Although I honestly don't really get what he means with that.

(...)

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

(...)
191  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 03:07:45 PM
Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.
192  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 08:31:37 PM
And except a lousy initial testing of Gen3 by Rockminer we have not even seen the up-to-date specs of Gen3.1 anywhere.

but why would we? there is just no competitive incentive to release all this data. its not because we know nothing that nothing is happening. At the very best, that would explain such low communication from FC. too busy getting that shit straight. Cheesy

Again, don't overestimate gen 3.1 there is no new chip design (mask set) but rather an increased die size or similar, in order to get rid of the heat better and to stabilise the chip. This shouldn't take any time at all. I also believe that the chips at XBTec are gen 3.1 since they use the new dimensions (8x8mm)

Agreed, this will not take much time but the effect is unknown. Apparently the generation used by XBTec is more efficient. Could be due to 3.1 improvements, PCB improvements or just less loss on the overall device-level due to lower overheads because of more chips per device and less supporting components (I am not an engineer, excuse my wording).
193  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 08:25:27 PM
And except a lousy initial testing of Gen3 by Rockminer we have not even seen the up-to-date specs of Gen3.1 anywhere.

but why would we? there is just no competitive incentive to release all this data. its not because we know nothing that nothing is happening. At the very best, that would explain such low communication from FC. too busy getting that sh*t straight. Cheesy

True. We know NOTHING actually. So also we do not know if advertising improved specs (equals more info to competitors) would generate more customers or we already do not need more customers as future batches are already in LoI phase or similar.
194  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 08:18:46 PM
And except a lousy initial testing of Gen3 by Rockminer we have not even seen the up-to-date specs of Gen3.1 anywhere.
195  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Of course the sales price can always be adjusted for future sales.

Regarding that rumoured near-future 0.35$/G:

Anybody knows at what G-rate of the chip that price might be based on?

If it is the initial 12.8G/chip (and as now everybody incl. fc is talking about 10G/chip), the actual price would be 0.448$/G (0.35$ for actual 0.78G at 10G/chip).

Just a thought...


I'm not following... We're talking about $0.35 per GH/s, that is per GH/s. That Chinese offer seems to be our very own gen 3 chips, since it says "grilled cat 3 generations chips". Delivery seems to be June 10-20.

Please think again. Or is my English really that bad? Tongue

I thought you weren't sure which chips were being sold here: http://www.cybtc.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=7951&highlight=%E7%83%A4%E7%8C%AB.
Still not following. We're pricing the chips per GH/s. If 1 GH/s costs $0.35, a 10 GH/s chip costs $3.5 and the initial 12.8GH/s chip would be $4.48. But not $0.448/GH/s!?
The chips could do 50GH/s, they'd still be $0.35/GH/s.

10 GH/s may be due to the increase in consumption or heat they encountered, so the recommended speed has been cut to about 10 GH/s. The only thing that does happen is that the production price would increase by the factor 1.28x per GH/s, since one chip yields less GH/s.

Now I know it is not my bad English. ^^

I'll give it a last try with a bold example:
Somebody is offering you chips for 1$/G. He says each chip performs 1Gh/s (although the official rating is different).
At 1 Gh/s the chip consumes 10 Watts. But the most efficient (and rated) rate for the chip is 0.5Gh/s as it is only consuming 2 Watts then. So you might want to run the chips at the rated 0.5Gh/s only. Hence, you actually pay 2$/G.
196  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 07:50:40 PM
Of course the sales price can always be adjusted for future sales.

Regarding that rumoured near-future 0.35$/G:

Anybody knows at what G-rate of the chip that price might be based on?

If it is the initial 12.8G/chip (and as now everybody incl. fc is talking about 10G/chip), the actual price would be 0.448$/G (0.35$ for actual 0.78G at 10G/chip).

Just a thought...


I'm not following... We're talking about $0.35 per GH/s, that is per GH/s. That Chinese offer seems to be our very own gen 3 chips, since it says "grilled cat 3 generations chips". Delivery seems to be June 10-20.

Please think again. Or is my English really that bad? Tongue

EDIT:
I'll try again:
Yes, yes, of course we are talking about AM Gen3 chips here.
If the advertised 0.35$/G are based on 12.8G/chip, then at only - I assume more efficient - 10G/chip (and that is the latest official rate from fc) the actual price would be 0.448$/G.
197  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 07:35:04 PM
Of course the sales price can always be adjusted for future sales.

Regarding that rumoured near-future 0.35$/G:

Anybody knows at what G-rate of the chip that price might be based on?

If it is the initial 12.8G/chip (and as now everybody incl. fc is talking about 10G/chip), the actual price would be 0.448$/G (0.35$ for actual 0.78G at 10G/chip).

Just a thought...
198  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 03, 2014, 06:42:04 PM

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

Still don't understand the financial report, in the cash flow sheet, the chip sales income is around $4.5m, divided by $0.35/G, means the sales in May was 12.85PH, it's quite below 33.5PH. AM I wrong about this?

Any attempt of interpretation of the sales figures in the cashflow-statement is just wild speculation as we do not know the payment terms with the customers.
199  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 02, 2014, 08:11:02 PM
Okay, please explain the following issue at hand: The April (not May as I erroneously stated) batch had 8.5 PH/s. Why do we only have $3,691,731 in chip sales? This would translate (as mentioned earlier) to a price of $0.43/GH/s for May. We should have yielded more revenue.

Actually, assuming a value of 500 USD/BTC and the current price of RMB/USD, there was about 4.41 million USD in chip sales. Why is there only that much? Perhaps payment hadn't been received for all the chips sold? Perhaps AM didn't sell all the chips? There's numerous reasons.

- What makes you think we achieved a price of $0.50-$1.00/GH/s (we all know this used to be the target)

Simply because that's the price that was told us.

- How can we achieve a price exceeding $0.40 for June+ batches, when the market price (although preorder) is supposedly at $0.35 and we probably haven't even achieved that price for the earliest (April) batch?

Is there any evidence for that price though? I haven't seen it, have you? Friedcat did say the price would be lower for the later batches but he didn't say what price they would be.

It's noteworthy though that April's payments haven't fully come in by now. I believe it is important to secure payments as fast as possible in such a risky business.

Thing is: The projected price originates in January, and we've seen significant delays, a significant increase in consumption, and strong competition. Also, even though we're in a bull market again, the BTC price is still slightly lower than in January, so the incentive to mine hasn't increased. Furthermore there's no indication whatsoever, that the anticipated target prices have been met. There are indicators, though, we're at a price of approximately $0.4/GH/s.
No proof, sure. But all indicators do point in that direction. I used to be pretty AM bullish, remember?

You are being contradictory. How can you one the one hand say that "April's payments haven't fully come in by now" and on the other hand claim that "there's no indication whatsoever, that the anticipated target prices have been met"? So how do you know one or the other?
200  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 02, 2014, 12:07:56 PM
What are you implying? i.e., how does this affect the price at which we are able to sell chips after this month / in the general future? The price is simply determined by the difficulty, BTC/$ price, and competitors. And 2 of them won't stop working "against" AM. The BTC price may make the chips more desirable, yet will slash dividends which are priced in BTC.
Long story short: Things aren't getting better with time. Chip manufacturers need to work as fast as possible. Promises of $0.5-$1.0/GH/s won't become reality anymore, things took too long.

What if we already have a whole bunch of chips ordered and paid for by these umbrella operations we are working with at a higher than fair market price. wont that be good for us?

Assuming projected batch sizes (May: 8.5 PH/s, June 33.5 PH/s) and assuming that the reported chip sales ($3,691,731) are the May batch and the Hardware in stock ($1,420,233+ $6,104,800=$7,525,033) is the June batch, we can conclude that AM achieved a price of: $0.43 for May and $0.22 for June. I know, at least the June numbers suggest that something doesn't add up and we may still expect payments for them. But it doesn't seem that AM is achieving the prices it has hoped for. And they won't increase. Even accepting a delayed payment won't do the trick. And that's the reason why the financial report seems worrysome.



Inventory is listed as production cost, NOT sales price.
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