I suspect Trump's presidency heralds the end of the 'strong dollar' (in comparison to all other currencies). Cheap Money is good for US exports, and good for Trump's personal wealth which is of course property market heavy. Last thing he wants is strong dollar and rising interest rates.

Trump is gonna be the president of BIG inflation, and therefore, an economic boom.....at least in terms of asset prices. BIG inflation means that Trumps debt gets wiped out in real terms (i.e. he gets loads loads of property for free) and it also wipes out America's foreign creditors holding long term US debt. Trump is also going to harm Chinese exports, and China are sitting on the precipice as it is.

Big big changes are coming.


Edit: Current Fed policy is to slowly raise rates and Yellen has two more years b4 Trump can rid of her and put his own man in....likely a roller coaster path ahead.

I agree.

I suspect that Bitocin first will test recent $750 low, then push uptowards $1000 area, fail, and then down she goes, finding support in major traffic area between $600-$700.

Time for a correction and test of V bottom imo.

$16 billion dollar market based on a price that is derived from about 2% of all coins regularly being passed around between bots on Chinese 0% fee exchanges, whilst USD exchange volume grows increasingly thin?

People need to keep in mind what Market Cap actually means. It most certainly does not mean that all the Bitcoin in the world are worth $16 billion.....if even just 1% of those Bitcoin were forced to liquidate with immediate effect, the result would be to cut Bitcoin's value in half.

If Bitcoin ramps, on a Chinese economic crash, due to millions of panicked tech savvy Joe Chungs trying to get their wealth out of CNY.....

.......then the PBOC could close Bitcoin down with a snap of their fingers............even if they never ever do, the fact that this very real danger exists makes Bitcoin a total no go area for any serious big capital.


and all this shit about the difficulty readjusting and other miners picking up the slack....bullshit. China houses 80% of Bitcoin mining capacity, turn that off overnight and there will be a backlog of transactions spanning weeks, combined with a huge panicked sell off, combined with a dramatic rearrangements in percentage of total mining capacity. Face it, Bitcoin would not survive such trauma, thus the PBOC can indeed kill Bitcoin and unlike in the West, the Chinese government can implement policy upon a whim and nobody will challenge it.

Some interesting perspectives there and strangely enough, I could only smell the big fat Reefa u been tokin on when I read the Bitcoin conspiracy article. Bitcoin's days are numbered r0ach. Sure, will probs go way higher still, but it is totally owned by the Chinese by now and the PBOC could switch it off tomorrow if they had the mind to. No serious Western capital is going to invest in something that is owned and run by a bunch of shady Chinamen operating out of Shanghai, but at complete mercy of bureaucrats in Beijing. If this was the NSA' secret plan to float an alternative currency now that China, India etc are owning all the gold, then they have surely fucked this one up.......quite like the idea of Bitcoin being an NSA project though. Certainly all the cryptography used in Bitcoin was developed by military intelligence. If Bitcoin is NSA, then it is a pilot for the global digital currency that is yet to come.

In the short term, Bitcoin is a highly volatile digital token offering the minority, great profit taking potential. In the long run, Bitcoin is nothing.

In the long run, gold is wealth. No matter what 'they' do to it's price. Regardless of whether financial markets even exist or not. Gold is wealth, down to it's atomic, and subatomic physical nature. Gold is the ultimate representative of the law of attraction in the physical world. Humanity will always come back to it. Indeed, it is only Western man who has (temporarily) rejected it. China and India, who make up over 35% of the global population, certainly don't view the yellow metal as a 'barbarous relic'.

as for the big crash of 201X....I am not so sure how it will play out. There have been Trillions of new USD created to plug the black holes of debt generated by the large financial institutions. This money is generally going into government bonds (as prerequisite of bail out deal), and using these bonds as collateral, the banks are lending (creating) new money which is overwhelmingly going into stock markets. Government policy across the Western world, has been austerity. The FEDs, BoEs, EZBs (etc) created trillions are NOT going into Main Street.

However, now we have President Donald J Trump.

Whatever you think of him, he is anti-globalist, and pro nationalist. He has made his fortune in property. Vast swathes of his total net worth is in property. The last thing he is going to allow on his shift, is a massive market crash, which will take property down with it. I suspect that Donald Trump is going to spend big on infrastructure, having the banks lend the US government some of that magic money, which is going to flow into Main St, which is going to push up prices, and with interest rates already so low (Trump is 100% pro cheap money), holders of fiat currency, i.e. savers are going to be heavily penalised, thus the race will be on to spend, invest, and lend the money into the economy at ultra low rates (to avoid negative rates). BIG inflation need not mean that the economy ceases to function, with anecdotes of restaurant bills being paid in advance in order to avoid losing value on the currency whilst people eat. Just look at the Italian Lira as an example. If the dominant global power chooses BIG inflation, then the world has no choice but to go along with that. Big foreign holders of US treasuries may not like that, but that is where the US military comes in and perhaps explains Trumps military policy. Russia good, China bad, Islamic Fundamentalism (generally funded by Saudi Arabia, another big holder of US debt), very bad!

In a similar style to which Trump has shafted his creditors in his business activities, I suspect Trump intends to rebuild the US economy, by spending BIG into the US economy despite interest rates being almost at zero, and thereby totally fucking shafting foreign holders of US treasuries, who can voice their complaints down the gun barrel of the US military. If anything somewhere along these lines pans out, then gold will fucking sky rocket, along with the price of everything else of course....including Bitcoin.....until the PBOC order the miners to close down.



Gold From a technical standpoint:






Gold also obeys Gann like an intentionally programmed algorithm, both to the upside and to the downside. Whether gold is now poised to take a big fucking ramp or a big dirty drop based on this chart (a bit of a mess but those who understand Gann Squares will know what they are looking at), all depends on one's market bias. Needless to say, I am bullish.

I believe strongly in $1500 Bitcoin in the fullness of time........it was starting to look as though Bitcoin was going to do it on the last pump, but no. I anticipate that Bitcoin will bounce back up to around the $1000 level ($980 is max sell target to my long position, if I had a long), and then after that, a further test of the $750 bottom......too early to say whether that $750 is going to hold or not....but more chance of $750 being broken to the downside over the next 2-3 months than $1140 being breached on the upside....


.....for now, Bitcoin rebounded right off the 'Strong Resistance Zone' from my chart above....if I were long Bitcoin, I would be looking very closely at market structure along and beneath this level......although I suspect Bitcoin will break through it to the upside.

Bitcoin could be ended tomorrow by the PBOC if they had the mind to do so.

Bitcoin is not, and never will be a safe haven for any serious volume of wealth. At best, it is a good means of evading capital controls and a highly volatile financial asset where shark traders can and do make a fucking killing at Joe Sixpack's expense......

......better watch they dont deplete the food chain though....

Likewise, if he wants to multiply his capital in some high risk high return trade, there are loads of better options than Bitcoin, which can now only be described as a low return high risk trade albeit with rampant volatilty, but if a trader aint gonna lock in profits, then that volatility don't mean shit.

Depends what you mean by bearish.

I drew that chart for a mate, who has been holding since $830, and who failed to take profits all the way up tp $1140, and failed to take profits again in all the zig zagging of price between $900 - $1040. Now, as I had previously advised him, he will get another chance to leave this trade with more USD in his account than he entered it with. The three green hearts represent target areas, based on notches in the Volume Profile. The upper most notch, is also right around the 61.8% retracement level and also right at the level where the market failed to bounce right back up after the initial correction, and took another almighty fall.

So my upside target here is around $980. If u want to call that bearish, then fair enough.

I am saying, that the top is in. The next attempt on testing the recent high will fail, then we can expect a long correction period, as Bitcoin looks to find another stable bottom...probably around the $500 mark.

I am also saying that compared to previous pumps, the interest in Bitcoin just isn't there. We have had Bitcoinica, MtGox, Bitfinex, and loads of small scale thefts on Kraken that never make the headlines. Too many people in the West have been burned in Bitcoin already.

Yep.

Bitcoin has had it's parabolic blow off top, and in comparison with 2013 and 2011, the interest is just not there, at least not from outwith China. Joe has been burned by Bitcoin too many times by now, both through 'legit' manufactured pump n dumps and from exchanges just outright stealing from it's customers.....

USD volume is a mere fraction of what it was during previous pumps and google trends shows also a distinct lack in interest compared with previous blow off top pump:

<script type="text/javascript" src="https://ssl.gstatic.com/trends_nrtr/884_RC03/embed_loader.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> trends.embed.renderExploreWidget("TIMESERIES", {"comparisonItem":[{"keyword":"Bitcoin","geo":"","time":"today 5-y"}],"category":0,"property":""}, {"exploreQuery":"q=Bitcoin","guestPath":"https://www.google.co.uk:443/trends/embed/"}); </script>

Of course, there are still 'believers' who think they are getting 'cheap coins' at $800 range, but I would wager that nervous bagholders outweigh them....and besides, that pump was 100% Made in China, and the PBOC has just announced they intend to investigate the big Chinese exchanges. If the Bitcoin Cowboys are all scurrying around with their tails in between their legs, busy trying to get their ducks in rows for the PBOC, who is left to really drive the market up?

I would be very surprised if bitcoin didn't go on and have another pop at $1000 or so, but I wouldn't be expecting any new highs anytime soon.

Don't be a nutter.

Considering the huge systemic risk involved with Bitcoin, you have missed the boat. Even if Bitcoin went to $1600, that is still only double.......there are loads and loads of legit stocks from solid companies who will perform way better than this going forward. Just hunt around for some energy and/or mineral resource stocks that have taken a severe beating over the past few years and are showing signs of bottoming out, just like Bitcoin did in 2015....

.....You don't want to be even considering going long term long in Bitcoin until the price chart has stretched itself right out. Right now, Bitcoin is still in parabolic territory, with huge volatility likely which is great for short term trades, both long and short, but a volatility that is likely to resolve itself to the down side.

Retrace up to $900 region.

Awesome advice.....

.....but the OP isn't there yet.



First, he got to go down the casino with all his chips and watch em get all eaten up, then start wondering how he only ever seems to make bad trades.

Picked the top once again r0ach, eh?  

Maybe these wins will make up for the devastating losses (that you denied) you incurred on the Great Bitfinex Scam of 2016?


Bitcoin market cap is tiny compared to gold and Bitcoin price is also driven overwhelmingly by speculation and also on very low trade volume (ignoring Chinese volume which is all fakery). Bitcoin and precious metals are totally different investment classes. The only thing that might be said, is that Bitcoin stole away a lot of the internet 'End the Fed' freedom warrior retail investors, who would otherwise have put money into precious metals.......but still, in the grander scheme of things, we are talking peanuts here.



btw, did you know that all the original Austrian economists were Jüde?

On restest of $750 low, I would suggest it might be a good time for a fast long trade.....if this bounced a couple of hundred bucks it would be nothing out of the ordinary.

If you are happy to use an exchange that just recently took the arbitrary decision to dip into all their customers accounts to the tune of 36.6% of the accounts' value.........

.........then sure, go ahead.

Hey Ibian. I notced that Bitcoin is now back down below your net buy-in level..

shame eh?