“'Tis but a scratch'
'A scratch?! Your arm's off!'
'No, it isn't.'”

Haha great pic, reminds me of so many posts that made me sad today.

Why on earth would you step away for a day after the huge run up in the past 2 days?

Bought at $8-$14.  Sold 20% at $103 weeks ago.  Sold other 80% last night at $223.  I'm glad people started buying in to drive the price up at the end of the day as that is exactly what happens when things crash.  I wouldn't go calling people tards until after tomorrow though.  We'll see but to answer your question even the 20% at $103 I sold felt great.  800% profit always does.

Maybe they finally realized they need to move the non trading parts of the site to a distributed service like CloudFlare.

When markets close after a huge sell off there are always those trying to buy back in low.  Tomorrow I expect a much bigger sell off and then an increase at close.  By Friday somewhere between $50-$100 I'd think.

Panicked speculators cashing in or losing their shirts, and it's not over yet.  FTFY    I sold last night and there was no panic involved.  I saw an insane unjustifiable increase in price mixed with increased volatility.  I've predicted so many bubbles in the past but never was able to sell the day before it burst.  Can't wait till the bottom and then eventual slow increase again so I can buy some more.  Gonna ride this coaster up and down as long as it lasts.

The price went up rather slowly to $50 and then ran up starting March 17th when Cyprus announced the tax.  Since that time Bitcoin has attracted an enormous influx of speculators and media attention.  I think most people will look at charts and feel it is valued at $50+ and I've been a bear for a month now.  I'd be surprised to see it go back under $40.  I'm not sure we will see another huge increase though until another event happens.  I wont buy back in until it starts to go up slowly like it was before.  A lot of people will lose interest after this bubble burst today.  Many who bought in really high probably got hit hard today and wont be buying back anytime soon just holding and waiting.

Well after the last run up and increased volatility I sold off last night as I said here this morning.  I think I came back to this thread about an hour before the sell off started.  Sorry to anyone who held on or lost money.  I know I've made the same mistake myself many times.  Investing and making money means never letting emotions affect decisions on when to buy and sell.  The board is crazy now with all kinds of post.  I'll be back buying coin once the price stabilizes again or if there is some better news on fundamentals.

The price went up on speculation and not fundamentals.  Check my first thread I ever started.  I saw the crash coming based on volatility and updated it right before.

"We" are people on bitcointalk.  No you can not control the price as probably most of the speculators don't read this site.  Buy low, sell high.  Study fundamentals. Investing 101.

Before the massive interest BTC was at $50.  Since then there are a lot more parties involved.  For this reason I think the real perceived value was at $50 and now is probably near $100.  I would guess unless all the speculators run and never return a bottom of $87. I think it will level off around $100.

This of course does not consider how people are going to react to the problems MT Gox etc. is having right now.  A collapse to $0 or moving of BTC to some other virtual currency wouldn't shock me.  I don't think this will happen because many are just waiting to buy back in.  There are still plenty of bulls who have faith and the lower it goes the faster they will be buying again.

I'm usually far too conservative and guess too low.  At $20 I was sure I'd get to buy more at $10 so, it will probably be over $100.

Let's pretend someone has a few Mt GOX accounts and bought BTC while it was low in fake names with cash (no way BTC is not anonymous this is impossible LOL).  Let's say this person sold off and made a huge profit.  That person can keep that money in those accounts without actually cashing out but have that money in USD.  Then once price drops and stabilizes they can buy back more BTC.  They can slowly send this money to accounts in real names and cash out smaller amounts using friends and such even in other countries.  Capital gains schmaptiable gains.

Well there is a huge difference.  Cypriots money was in Euro which they do not control.  They don't have to ability to print more to make payments like us Americans do.  It is impossible for a country to go bankrupt when they have fiat and print money.  It simply creates a long term issue of unsustainable debt.

Edit - Since you sound like a non-American I just wanted to add FDIC means my money is backed by Federal Insurance.  Based on our history and recent events in Cyprus I feel confident they will not suddenly try to tax my accounts.  Cyprus was a haven for money laundering which is why I think they thought about the tax.  I have no short term fear on the dollar or my accounts.

Agreed, I haven't trusted a mainstream bank with money since 1998.  I keep it in FDIC backed CU's.  Looking to move it to Frankfurt in non-euro form possibly at the moment.

I have those fears long term for USD but not in the near future.  You think a devalue of the USD is likely in the very near future, more so than a bubble burst?


My research has shown golds value is speculation based only it has a lot of trust just like a USD.  I believe gold is also a bubble and will start buying it again at $1200/oz.  Maybe $1400 or so if it stabilizes there.  I'm not so sure it is safer than USD.  Gold does not have a lot of industrial usage and no one knows for sure if all of it that is "owned" actually exist.  A lot of people own pieces of paper that represent gold stored in underground vaults.  Whether all that gold exists has yet to be proven.

Was this meant to imply a support for the value of a coin or just an interesting tidbit?  If the former I say usage determines value not the worth of what is being mined.

Last post on this thread was 4/5 at $140.

Today we hit $258 (five days later) and I got out yesterday.


I was a bull and now I believe this bubble can not contain much more hot air.  Any other bulls starting to change their tune or are a lot of you guys still thinking fair market value is $1,000-$10,000, or maybe 5 billion (heh)?  A lot of people chimed in this thread and I read every word of every post.  Never did see anything tangible to support the price.  I only saw more unjustified speculation and ignoring of some huge risks.  The biggest risk I can forsee are, again, a more trusted source than Satoshi-WTF popping up over night.  If Silk road switches to another currency (with less unknowns and risks) I wonder what will keep the BTC value up?  Will all other vendors take note and jump on the bandwagon?  Will the BTC ATM guy who hasn't dealt with regulations yet decide to switch as well?  Are you going to be able to get out before the massive dump?  Will those of you asking people selling early if they regret it, later regret holding on if you can't sell fast enough?  After 15 years of non-stop investing the only regrets I remember are when I was buying high and selling low.  I never let emotions and numbers affect my decisions.  Only facts and evidence drive my strategy having made many mistakes holding on too long too many times.

I think these are very valid concerns and there are logically more likely paths than $1000 or more for a BTC.  With this high of price I would of expected to hear more from the current code developers.  Surely they own coin and don't want the price to fall.  There are unanswered questions still about many mysterious and I don't see those being addressed.  That has not helped my confidence level as price increases while value is speculation based.  And, don't worry if the price hits $1000 today I'll have no regrets.  I've already made more profit than any investments recently and I'm happy.  I would regret if I didn't already get out and the price hit $100 again though.  Anyway I'm out and will be watching the price for now and move on to other ventures.  I'm going back to lurker mode and just stay up on current events until something big happens, besides more price increase.  Happy investing folks!

As someone who started out day trading in 1998 I'm curious what the P/E ratio is on this Bitcoin IPO you speak of?

Clearly the rate at which the price is increasing is not a bubble.  This is simply a market correction to 10 billion dollars!



Sorry couldn't resist a little funny sarcasm.  $600 by Friday?

They don't even cache the homepage or any part of the site at all it seems.  The engine part is a database which is not being DDOS directly.  It is the front end that is DDOS'd and the main site is not reachable.  I do not have experience in handling financial sites so, I'm sure the architecture is much more complex than sites I currently deal with.  However I suspect major stock exchanges have developed technologies to deal with these type of issues.

At any rate they should at the very least cache the homepage and things that can be so other parts of the site can be accessed.  If the engine is only accessed internally I would think the front ends could be cached.  The problem as I know is the latency and again that is not something I deal with on this scale so I wont speculate the details.

I have not used Prolexic so I can not provide a comparative analysis.  All I can say is Spamhaus just had the largest DDOS attack in the history of the internet and survived with CloudFlare.  Based on what I'm seeing so far this DDOS on Mt Gox is no where near that scale.

I have no idea how Prolexic does DDOS mitigation.  What I do know is CloudFlare uses anycast to spread your site all over the world.  You would have to DDOS a whole lot of locations in order to affect a site.  Maybe someone familiar with Prolexic's methodologies can chime in.