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Bitcoin is the future reserve currency for the world.
If you want a hedge I think in the future we are going to discover a lot more scientific uses for gold that will boost its value in the long term.
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The problem with the OP's approach is that is not a what a free market is. Exactly. Even if this were to occur and cause the price to spike eventually the price would get so high that everyone who was previously colluding in the hoarding would begin selling. Everyone tries to maximize their own utility. You can't make anyone hold onto their coins rather than sell them. Everyone jumps off the ship as it starts sinking and we're back at market price. |
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I kind of agree. While ASICminer is held publicly the owners of the corporation are doubtlessly raking in piles of money right now.
Its sad that Bitcoin's got a corporation that owns 1/4 of the network's hashrate. You can either buy ASICminer and let them make most of the real profits from your mining investment or mine yourself and make drastically less money because they are ramping the difficulty up so much.
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Now its at 16%. Guess this is either new Avalon owners solo mining or Avalon testing new units.
I love how smug and certain so many of you are though. Lets just hope it's not really a malicious actor.
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Bitcoin is a revolution in social systems just as much as in currency. It represents hope for a better world. On its face Bitcoin is a private, secure, and efficient form of currency based upon cryptography and distributed p2p networking that can be used anywhere there is access to computers and the internet. What makes Bitcoin different from other currencies is how it prevents foul play.
Rather than using threats of punishment (like government backed currencies) to prevent people from cheating the system (which is inefficient and usually not completely effective) the community has programmed Bitcoin to make behavior which further stabilizes the system the most profitable choice of action. Attempting to guess the private & public key pairs that control access to Bitcoin users' funds would take so many calculations it is practically impossible. That computing power could be far more efficiently used to generate new Bitcoins directly instead. This narrows the ways to get Bitcoins down to either buying them (which increases the value of Bitcoins held by everyone else) or submiting computing power to the network (which makes it more secure).
Both efficiency and user confidence an order of magnitude better than the current centralized banking system is possible using Bitcoin. Beyond just currency Bitcoin represents a new leap forward in human civilization that will be backed by collective voluntary action rather than direct coercion by central authorities. Bitcoin is living proof that humanity can work together to create a better world.
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It doesn't seem like scrypt really adds anything. Once the hashrate is high enough I am sure ASICS will get made for it. The only thing that makes litecoin appealing to me is faster transaction times.
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In this video http://www.bloomberg.com/video/bitcoin-is-start-of-brave-new-world-gelfond-says-jE1q_HF5R2y8lixcxq4iLg.html Bob Gelfond proposes the idea of a currency based on computing power. I've seen this idea thrown around before. I've even heard that Nikola Tesla proposed a currency based upon electricity. With GPU miners becoming useless for mining quickly this could be an alternative way to 'mine' with the added bonus of the computing power actually being put to use rather than wasted. GPUs are used for many different types of computer models and a huge distributed super computer could really be worth quite a bit of money. We could even use Bitcoin to pay the miners since it would be by far the most efficient method of payment for a global distributed network. Is anyone working on anything like this? |
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Forgive my ignorance here but how do you know this is one miner. The right hand column of your link says "unknown blocks" and almost all of them are single recipient IP addresses. I just assumed this bucket made up the 15% of the network that didn't join a mining pool.
You're right they are going to different IPs, but IPs don't actually identify users, it's very easy to clone them and use proxies. I have heard that solo mining is useless unless you have a ton of network power. That makes it seem likely the unknown section is not made up of a ton of individuals but is like a private mining pool from just a few locations. |
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Once the exchange rate of Bitcoin bottoms out it will actually make a ton of sense for businesses that believe in the future of Bitcoin to accept it.
Right now we are in a precarious position where the price very well could drop to half of what it is right now. Given the huge surge in interest in BTC since January I highly doubt it will go below about $40 each.
See that story about the fertility clinic that sold services in BTC when they were worth 5 dollars each and made 3.6x what he would have otherwise, even after offering a 50% discount for paying in BTC.
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If the government was interested in destroying bitcoins they wouldn't be mining them or attempting a 51% attack. They'd simply send bitcoins underground and block all transactions to coinbase/mtgox etc.
I am curious to see who this is though.
Pirating using Bittorrent is already illegal and pirating stuff carries huge fines but the government is totally unable to stop it. I think if they made Bitcoin illegal it would be the same story all over again. Maybe they are aware of this, read Satoshi's whitepaper where he identifies the 51% attack, and said "hey it would only cost us about 50 million to take over the network right now if we hire a private firm to pump out a billion GH/s in ASICS". 50 million is a drop in the bucket for a big government and a massive amount even to a small company like Avalon and BFL. Avalon, Asicminer, and BFl are using 110 and 62 nanometer technology for their ASICS that is far bigger and less efficient than the state of the art for other electronic components in mass production. The 51% attack seems to be one of the only known ways to actually destroy Bitcoin. The longer they wait the more expensive such an attack would be, and way more so once ASICS are really being pumped out and sold to miners. |
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Assuming $120/BTC (your specification), and 18% increase in difficulty every 2 weeks, a starting difficulty of 90-100M is about break-even for a 50 GH miner.
Based on current difficulty and 18% increases, we will get to 100M in November. A month earlier and profit is nearly 50% above initial cost. A month later...well...ouch.
[EDIT]: I would probably cancel the order at ~50-75M just to eliminate the risk of a loss. You have some time yet, but also be wary of the percent increase in difficulty. The threshold is lower if difficulty increases faster than 18% (a VERY real possibility after July or so).
Network difficulty will not necessarily increase by a certain % of previous difficulty each time. The % increase is from new ASICS coming online. 1 unit, then another then another etc. That's a linear increase not exponential increase but we just don't know what the slope of the line is (all we know is that it will be VERY steep). I think 100-200 million is definitely likely by the end of the year though. |
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See: http://blockchain.info/poolsThe "Unknown" miner had 9% last week, 11% a couple days ago, and 13% now. Even just 1% of the network is a huuuuge jump in hashrate. To give a comparison, ASICminer has 19% of the share of the network and they actually are a corporation that reinvests their profits into making their own miners (a sure formula for insane growth). Could this be a government attempting to destroy Bitcoin by dumping a few million into making their own ASICs? Or possibly a private actor trying to gain total control over BTC? The rapid growth of this unknown miner is very concerning. |
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Your question makes no sense. My question made perfect sense. You just didn't know the answer. And I wasn't looking for an exact, perfect number. Just a general idea when I should throw in the towel while waiting for shipping. I'm aware there are 1000 variables. But if my question made no sense, there wouldn't be any calculators out there attempting to answer it. Thank you Spiral. Is it possible to rerun those numbers with a different wattage? Because as I understand it, the 50 will not generate anywhere near that much power consumption. Just use bitcoinx.com to enter your own variables. I have provided what mine were set to, they aren't that much different from the base settings. I agree your question did make sense. I think he just didn't really read your post. |
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Using bitcoinx.com:
power cost = .15 USD/ kWh
a power consumption of 350 W for a 50,000 MH/s miner
at a cost of $2,500
profitability decline per year of .61 per year (standard value in calculator)
Point where break even on investment is no longer possible:
@ 50 USD per BTC = Difficulty 123,000,000
Net profit per year: -13.60 USD
@ 100 USD per BTC = Difficulty 240,000,000
Net profit over 1 year: -0.58 USD
@ 150 USD per BTC = Difficulty 368,000,000
Net profit over 1 year : -5.46 USD
--------------------------------------------
Point where power costs more than revenue (not counting initial cost of miner):
USD/BTC=50. Difficulty: 920,000,000
Power cost per year: 394.47 USD
Revenue per year: 393.58 USD
USD/BTC=100. Difficulty: 1,900,000,000
Power cost: 394.47 USD
Revenue: 381.28 USD
USD/BTC=150. Difficulty: 2,500,000,000
Power cost: 460.22 USD
Revenue: 434.79 USD
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This site says the IP 71.178.24.197 comes from Reston, Virginia: http://my-ip-address-is.com/ip/71.178.24.197That's 20 miles from Washington, D.C. US Government mining pool? The only way to control Bitcoin is to have 51% of the mining power or have a ton of them to trade... |
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There's no reason you should have stopped generating shares because of a difficulty increase. GPU mining is still plenty profitable.
What a lame post acting like it's the end of the world for Bitcoin. "The exchanges closing down" yeah right, which ones?
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Switching to Diablo kernel seems to have fixed my problem! getting 300 MH/s with 7 intensity and around 370-390 with 13
Is this kernel safe to use ?
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I did what you said, Sam
Now for some reason I'm only getting around 100 MH/s at intensity 7
Turning the intensity up to 13 gives me about 280 MH/s but that's still really slow
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I was using Cgminer version 2.1.1 for a long while and with a high intensity I could max my Radeon 7870 out at 400 MH/s. I normally had my intensity set to 7 for a cool running 360 MH/s.
After upgrading to version 3.2.1 I've found the highest stable MH/s I can get is around 305 MH/s at any intensity.
Here's my conf file:
{
"pools" : [
{
}
]
,
"intensity" : "7",
"vectors" : "1",
"worksize" : "256",
"kernel" : "phatk",
"lookup-gap" : "2",
"thread-concurrency" : "10000",
"shaders" : "1280",
"gpu-engine" : "0-0",
"gpu-fan" : "0-85",
"gpu-memclock" : "0",
"gpu-memdiff" : "0",
"gpu-powertune" : "0",
"gpu-vddc" : "0.000",
"temp-cutoff" : "95",
"temp-overheat" : "85",
"temp-target" : "75",
"api-port" : "4028",
"expiry" : "120",
"gpu-dyninterval" : "7",
"gpu-platform" : "0",
"gpu-threads" : "2",
"hotplug" : "5",
"log" : "5",
"no-pool-disable" : true,
"queue" : "1",
"scan-time" : "60",
"temp-hysteresis" : "3",
"shares" : "0",
"kernel-path" : "/usr/local/bin"
}
Anyone have any ideas why this could be happening?
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What if the community created a patch for Bitcoin that makes the number of coins mined and the "confirmation power" of blocks proportionally decline in relation to their concentration of mining power from a single IP? an IP address isn't and never can be a reliable attribute of any entity mining in Bitcoin as long as you want it to be anonymous. Mining via TOR, mining connected via thousands of proxies, etc. If you throw over board the anonymity you could just as well abandon proof of work. So would it be possible to still execute a 51% attack if the attacker were forced to use 10 different addresses ? He could just write a script to coordinate the attack across all his machines? |
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