other indicators of where the price might go

[pleaseexplain]

This is ipredict? Do you know if it can be used by non NZ residents? I like the odds.

yes its ipredict.

i think in theory it can be used by people from overseas but the conditions ipredict work under to be allowed to operate are fairly messy making it harder for others eg ipredict want to payout into a NZ bank account. I have seen in the forum a person from overseas complaing about the time to get his payout by wire transfer. Note ipredict is run on a shoe string and have very few staff so anything out of the ordinary is hard for them. eg they only pay out on tuesday and thursdays. Also to stop it being an outright 'betting' site they are made by the approval body to limit the funds that you can deposit to I think NZ$2,500 per annum with an all time max of NZ$10,000.



Email them and see what the current position is.  

Note it is a self balancing system ie every time you buy it has to match a seller or the marketmaker (same applies for shorting the stock). so if you go in with lots of money quickly you will get very poor odds quickly as it is a thin market. You need to put in say only $5 per day to lessen the self defeating effect of big plunges.

hope this helps

thanks that's very helpful

I will check out the forums

Edit: Though, looking at these things, it seems to me you can indeed only buy tiny amounts.

Current Top 10 Sell Orders Quantity (Stocks)   Price Per Share
1   $0.0274
1   $0.0374
1   $0.0474
1   $0.0522
1   $0.0573
1   $0.0630
1   $0.0691
1   $0.0759
1   $0.0832
1   $0.0911

That's like half a dollars worth, and then we are back up to odds of "just" $10 per $1. I'm new to this, am I reading it right?

nearer those sort of odds I'd rather just hold the bitcoin itself.

Would it even be possible to buy, say, $1000 worth, in any reasonable period of time without dramatically influencing the market?

It is bit involved. Iwill pm you with how to get the most from the site

[Coinshot]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

I see this sort of comment often ie if it goes below x the large numbers will buy in.
I am not so sure. nobody knows what bitcoin is "worth' and if its price goes down to say $100 you will still lose $60 per bitcoin if it goes down further to say $40. That is still a big enough loss in both dollar and percentage terms to make people have second thoughts about buying in at $100

To my mind people should determine their buy in price when they have degoxed the data over the past few eyars . I think most of the upsurges were engineered and with out them bitcoin would be say $20. But since it would have grown from $2 in only a few years that is 'great'  growth ie it is not a failure. It is just it will look like a crash while people keep showing charts with $1000 all time high from the gox type effects.

The lower it goes, the tougher it becomes for it to get lower as lowering by the same amount is much more in percentage points.
I am not betting on sub-100. If it goes below 200, I expect a crash to low 100s but that is for a short time. If you you sit hoping for double digits you will miss out.

[pleaseexplain]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

I see this sort of comment often ie if it goes below x the large numbers will buy in.
I am not so sure. nobody knows what bitcoin is "worth' and if its price goes down to say $100 you will still lose $60 per bitcoin if it goes down further to say $40. That is still a big enough loss in both dollar and percentage terms to make people have second thoughts about buying in at $100

To my mind people should determine their buy in price when they have degoxed the data over the past few eyars . I think most of the upsurges were engineered and with out them bitcoin would be say $20. But since it would have grown from $2 in only a few years that is 'great'  growth ie it is not a failure. It is just it will look like a crash while people keep showing charts with $1000 all time high from the gox type effects.

The lower it goes, the tougher it becomes for it to get lower as lowering by the same amount is much more in percentage points.
I am not betting on sub-100. If it goes below 200, I expect a crash to low 100s but that is for a short time. If you you sit hoping for double digits you will miss out.

it depends on your starting point for such percentage calculations. only a few years ago it boomed to 31 and crashed to $2 ie 6.4% of its height. if you apply that to the gox debacle where it got to 1200 then a drop to 6.4% of that is $77.
double digits is entirely possible if history repeats

[MF Doom]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

I see this sort of comment often ie if it goes below x the large numbers will buy in.
I am not so sure. nobody knows what bitcoin is "worth' and if its price goes down to say $100 you will still lose $60 per bitcoin if it goes down further to say $40. That is still a big enough loss in both dollar and percentage terms to make people have second thoughts about buying in at $100

To my mind people should determine their buy in price when they have degoxed the data over the past few eyars . I think most of the upsurges were engineered and with out them bitcoin would be say $20. But since it would have grown from $2 in only a few years that is 'great'  growth ie it is not a failure. It is just it will look like a crash while people keep showing charts with $1000 all time high from the gox type effects.

The lower it goes, the tougher it becomes for it to get lower as lowering by the same amount is much more in percentage points.
I am not betting on sub-100. If it goes below 200, I expect a crash to low 100s but that is for a short time. If you you sit hoping for double digits you will miss out.

it depends on your starting point for such percentage calculations. only a few years ago it boomed to 31 and crashed to $2 ie 6.4% of its height. if you apply that to the gox debacle where it got to 1200 then a drop to 6.4% of that is $77.
double digits is entirely possible if history repeats

Double digits are not only possible, but probable as time goes on and we dont see price support.  People will decide to get out and not risk losing money.  A lot of holders have been holding for years, and have been expecting a return to the 1000+ levels.  Clearly that is not happening ANY time soon, so it seems like more holders will begin to exit btc in the near future

[mrhelpful]

Found this on the interwebs from a TA prof. He thinks that we might establish a bottom in the lower singular digit range!

You do realize that TA means nothing right lol.

For all you know that it looks like a downward trend with no support, but it can go all opposite direction without any sign. Just know the TA is just for ideal purposes, and ends up being a delusional tool for intra day traders.

People who trade within that 1hr time frame, etc.

[uki]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

Bingo. Finally somebody talking sense.

But for how long?

I would expect some serious action to happen one year from here. Next halving event is scheduled for the end of July 2016, thus, it is reasonable to expect that the ETF would be launched in the close proximity to that event, but early enough to maximise the profits. Whales are speculators as well.

[uki]

Double digits are not only possible, but probable as time goes on and we dont see price support.  People will decide to get out and not risk losing money.  A lot of holders have been holding for years, and have been expecting a return to the 1000+ levels.  Clearly that is not happening ANY time soon, so it seems like more holders will begin to exit btc in the near future

Fundamentally, we have nothing new developed recently, just news that are pure smoke. It means that indeed, price may revisit the levels we have seen two or three years ago and that wouldn't be unusual, as fundamentally nothing changed since then. However, I tend to favour another scenario as more probable for the months to come in 2015, namely more of the sideways boring trend. Volume at the edges of the channel ($200-$300) seems to confirm that so far.

[zyzzbrah]

Just wait until mid April to take any conclusions, until then its too much speculation.

[ensurance982]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

Well I can't even believe he's posting that chart for real. Not even fonzie can take that seriously (as a form of trolling). The resistance in January was already pretty impressive. Then the resilience to go below $220. This could be still 'it' - if not, surely the next big dip will be 'it'.