other indicators of where the price might go

[pleaseexplain]

I am a fan of prediction markets. They seem to be for some things a good indicator (eg elections when prediction markets are compared to poling etc). having to spend your money to express your view cuts out alot of the crap responses.

so it is interesting to see what a prediction market in New Zealand that has just started up is saying. it is early days and there is thin trading but it shows the info below.

people are predicting the value of bitcoin at 1 jan 2016.

you get $24 for very $1 spent if you back it being $1000 or more. That indicates to me people think the gox con made the price that sort of level and unless there is another con it will not go back there.

The returns for it being $500-$1000 and $100-$500 are about the same - $2.03 for $1 and $2.23 for $1. That to me just reflects they feel with a current price around $250 the price in that timeframe (10 months away) will be no more than double or halved.

what is surprising to me is that the odds for a $50-$100 price are just $3.35 to 1 and $50 or less just $9 to 1.

they seem low to me considering we are at $250 now and the end date is  just 10 months away.

so i read that as people are bearish not bullish.

I think bitcoin is overpriced so I am happily buying into odds of $3.35 and $9 respectively.

what do others think?


code    price at 1 jan 2016   cost at 28 March 2015   payout   ratio           odds   profit for very $1 spent
vhi   1000+                  0.04                             1          25.000   24.00   $24.00
hi   500-1000                  0.33                             1          3.030           2.03   $2.03
mid   100-500                  0.31                             1          3.226           2.23   $2.23
low   50-100                  0.23                             1          4.348           3.35   $3.35
vlow   50-                          0.10                             1         10.000           9.00   $9.00

[coinableS]

Maybe a flash crash from cascading margin calls on all the longs to take us down to below $200, but it wouldn't last long. There is way too much buy support at those levels. The thought of a $50 coin would be revisiting the lows of 2013 and likely way out of reach, I think even the superbears would agree on that.

[MF Doom]

Maybe a flash crash from cascading margin calls on all the longs to take us down to below $200, but it wouldn't last long. There is way too much buy support at those levels. The thought of a $50 coin would be revisiting the lows of 2013 and likely way out of reach, I think even the superbears would agree on that.

I'm not a superbear, but I am short term bearish. I think 100 is possible, maybe even dipping down to the double digits. But I disagree on buy support, there has been less buy support every single time a support level is broken ( all the way from 1200 down to the current levels)

[fonzie]

Found this on the interwebs from a TA prof. He thinks that we might establish a bottom in the lower singular digit range!

[Coinshot]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

[xDan]

This is ipredict? Do you know if it can be used by non NZ residents? I like the odds.

[pleaseexplain]

This is ipredict? Do you know if it can be used by non NZ residents? I like the odds.

yes its ipredict.

i think in theory it can be used by people from overseas but the conditions ipredict work under to be allowed to operate are fairly messy making it harder for others eg ipredict want to payout into a NZ bank account. I have seen in the forum a person from overseas complaing about the time to get his payout by wire transfer. Note ipredict is run on a shoe string and have very few staff so anything out of the ordinary is hard for them. eg they only pay out on tuesday and thursdays. Also to stop it being an outright 'betting' site they are made by the approval body to limit the funds that you can deposit to I think NZ$2,500 per annum with an all time max of NZ$10,000.



Email them and see what the current position is. 

Note it is a self balancing system ie every time you buy it has to match a seller or the marketmaker (same applies for shorting the stock). so if you go in with lots of money quickly you will get very poor odds quickly as it is a thin market. You need to put in say only $5 per day to lessen the self defeating effect of big plunges.

hope this helps

[pleaseexplain]

^ its fonzie so better to ignore.

I had thought that the 160 was the bottom, but if it goes below 200 I think we will see low 100s. I do not see double digits as I think there would be way to much buy pressure.

Even low 100s would be for a small time so keep your buy orders ready. It will take at least a week, likely a lot more time to play out so you got time to get fiat in.

I see this sort of comment often ie if it goes below x the large numbers will buy in.
I am not so sure. nobody knows what bitcoin is "worth' and if its price goes down to say $100 you will still lose $60 per bitcoin if it goes down further to say $40. That is still a big enough loss in both dollar and percentage terms to make people have second thoughts about buying in at $100

To my mind people should determine their buy in price when they have degoxed the data over the past few eyars . I think most of the upsurges were engineered and with out them bitcoin would be say $20. But since it would have grown from $2 in only a few years that is 'great'  growth ie it is not a failure. It is just it will look like a crash while people keep showing charts with $1000 all time high from the gox type effects.

[zimmah]

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

[pleaseexplain]

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

have a look at how quickly the price has gone down from say $500 in august 2014  to about $250 now march 2015 ie it halved in 8 months.

I saw nothing really holding the price up back then and i see nothing now so I cannot see why it would not halve again or more in 10 more months.


but I have happened to cover myself a little with my bets - I have taken a few at the $100-$500 range and will make $2.23 profit for $1 if that comes in.
I have then spend lots of $1s on the lower two out comes ie $50-$100 and $50-.

so unless the price is back over $500 the worst I can do is make 23c profit for every $3 spent. If the others come in I am going to make substantially more for my lots of $3.

 

[pattu1]

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

You shouldn't rule out anything.
6 months ago, I wouldn't have dreamed about Bitcoin being sub-300, but we are there now. 

[Dilla]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

[tokeweed]

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

You shouldn't rule out anything.
6 months ago, I wouldn't have dreamed about Bitcoin being sub-300, but we are there now. 

This.  I was one of those people who was super bullish on BTC.  I never expected it would go below 500 usd.  And only to find out that the price surge to 1000+ usd was caused primarily by the Willybot.  Unless Willybot 2.0 goes online soon, I do not expect BTC to go up that far in the near term.

[tokeweed]

You seriously bet money on Bitcoin being below 100 in 10 months?

I hope you did not bet a lot lol.

You shouldn't rule out anything.
6 months ago, I wouldn't have dreamed about Bitcoin being sub-300, but we are there now.  

We were going down from a pump started by Gox and the Chinese trying to move money out of the country, but before they pumped it Bitcoin was already stable above $100 for months. Dream on
2 years ago nobody expected it to go above $500 and it did.  Bitcoin went from being worth less than $1 to being what it is now. It won't disappear just like that, the technology is real and is here to stay.

Sure.  No one is trying to undermine the tech.  But then this is the market, it could go down to 50 usd before rising up above 300 again.  Like you said no expected for it to go from 1 to where it is now, but then again the downside is also real since BTC is being traded in the open market.

[pleaseexplain]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

not really sure how you now this but let me give you the example of Google Wave.

I was an earlier devotee - this seemed to be the next big jump. It had the aura that bitcoin has/had. it had its equivalent to etf and gemini in the wings
i spent 6 months of my life preparing tutorial type material to teach companies how to make the most of it. I thought i would make a good living explaining it to people.
And then Google canned it - some parts eventually have ended up in google docs etc but it never ended up the "saviour" that it set out to be.
Yet google wave was stunningly brilliant in the way bitcoin is in terms of person to person funds transfer (i think the guy who dreamed up google maps dreamed up goggle wave).

Anyway there is no Google type entity in bitcoin to kill it off but since its person to person funds transfer does not rely on its price (ie it can be $1 or $1000 and if you go fiat to bitcoin to fiat in a few hours the bitcoin price is irrelevant.

but the equivalent to being canned by Google for bitcoin is there that we are not establishing any sensible store of value for it . etf and gemini things sort of help but only at the margins.

so i see at least in the 2 year horizon a sub $100 price. to my mind when people are uncertain about the level of its store of value it drops in price - and the more it drops the more uncertain they are.

[vvv8]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

Bingo. Finally somebody talking sense.

[tokeweed]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

Bingo. Finally somebody talking sense.

But for how long?

[xDan]

This is ipredict? Do you know if it can be used by non NZ residents? I like the odds.

yes its ipredict.

i think in theory it can be used by people from overseas but the conditions ipredict work under to be allowed to operate are fairly messy making it harder for others eg ipredict want to payout into a NZ bank account. I have seen in the forum a person from overseas complaing about the time to get his payout by wire transfer. Note ipredict is run on a shoe string and have very few staff so anything out of the ordinary is hard for them. eg they only pay out on tuesday and thursdays. Also to stop it being an outright 'betting' site they are made by the approval body to limit the funds that you can deposit to I think NZ$2,500 per annum with an all time max of NZ$10,000.



Email them and see what the current position is.  

Note it is a self balancing system ie every time you buy it has to match a seller or the marketmaker (same applies for shorting the stock). so if you go in with lots of money quickly you will get very poor odds quickly as it is a thin market. You need to put in say only $5 per day to lessen the self defeating effect of big plunges.

hope this helps

thanks that's very helpful

I will check out the forums

Edit: Though, looking at these things, it seems to me you can indeed only buy tiny amounts.

Current Top 10 Sell Orders Quantity (Stocks)   Price Per Share
1   $0.0274
1   $0.0374
1   $0.0474
1   $0.0522
1   $0.0573
1   $0.0630
1   $0.0691
1   $0.0759
1   $0.0832
1   $0.0911

That's like half a dollars worth, and then we are back up to odds of "just" $10 per $1. I'm new to this, am I reading it right?

nearer those sort of odds I'd rather just hold the bitcoin itself.

Would it even be possible to buy, say, $1000 worth, in any reasonable period of time without dramatically influencing the market?

[vvv8]

If anything I think the price is being held down. Probably keeping it as low as possible pre-etf and Gemini

Bingo. Finally somebody talking sense.

But for how long?

This is a whales game. Some of these whales are completely anonymous, so how could one know their true intentions ?

I follow trends, I follow bitcoin news & legislation. If you follow these things, you will notice certain patterns. The patterns i'm seeing are positive ones that are strengthening bitcoin. Current price does not coincide with the positive news we've been hearing lately at all , therefore it leads me to believe and feel that the price is being held down purposely and indefinitely. 2016 is going to be the year with alot of shocks and surprises for the whole world. I've got my popcorn ready and a front seat.

[kwukduck]

Maybe a flash crash from cascading margin calls on all the longs to take us down to below $200, but it wouldn't last long. There is way too much buy support at those levels. The thought of a $50 coin would be revisiting the lows of 2013 and likely way out of reach, I think even the superbears would agree on that.

Lol what support?
It's like a sinking and burning ship with people on it screaming everything is fine, don't worry.