[Bitcoin Future Price Formula] Published by italian Bitcointalk member!

[conspirosphere.tk]

problem is that the total number of addresses can only go up, and btc price not -unfortunately.

[gbianchi]

problem is that the total number of addresses can only go up, and btc price not -unfortunately.

not exactly: the addresses can stop growing at this speed ',
or in the worst case stop growing completely, then remain constant over time.

In this case surely there would be a negative fallout on prices.

[kdrop22]

The number of Bitcoin addresses is representative of the commerce and activity being done in the Bitcoin economy.
e.g.,
- Legitimate businesses like Bitpay
- grey market
- people sending and receiving Bitcoins to and fro from exchanges (internal trading in exchanges not included).

That is probably why it correlates in some form with the Bitcoin price.

[aminorex]

It is a common place in network theory that the value of a network increases as the square of the number of nodes.  GB's model uses an exponent of 2.26.  The extra .26 would appear to be some confound which increases as sqrt(sqrt(n)).  Identifying that component might win you a  Nobel in economics, which you could then use to cudgel Paul Krugman into becoming an honest man.

[oda.krell]

A question for you, OP.

(By the way, don't take it personal, but I won't read through an auto-translated technical text, that's really not going to help me much.)

Since e is a constant, essentially your BTC price formula is an (exponential) function of the total number of BTC addresses. My question then is: how do you see it as significantly different form the countless attempts to model BTC price as an (exponential) function of time, the most well known one on this forum the linear regression of BTC price mapped to a log chart (recently rpietla made a big thread about this, IMO, rather uninformative method).

Looking at the graph in your Italian post (the blue line in the last graph, right?), it looks to me like your "formula" suffers from the same problem as the purely time dependent (linear regression) model: it gives a decent idea of the order of magnitude of BTC price at any time, but it is significantly off at times, and therefore more or less useless for trading -- more precisely: it is good to know that we can expect BTC price to be in the range of 1000 in mid 2014, but for example right now, your formula is "wrong", in an empirical sense, and it was even more off target a month ago.

[Lixen]

As pointed out, there is likely also a correlation between amount of addresses and velocity. Or rather between the slope of amount of addresses and velocity.

More addresses being used and created indicates more different people use it (adoption) and that the same existing people use it more frequently (adoption + velocity).

The increase in velocity, however, would probably work against the increase in price caused by increased adoption.

It would be interesting to find a way to differentiate between these two powers affecting the price.