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January 05, 2014, 01:33:34 AM |
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A question for you, OP.
(By the way, don't take it personal, but I won't read through an auto-translated technical text, that's really not going to help me much.)
Since e is a constant, essentially your BTC price formula is an (exponential) function of the total number of BTC addresses. My question then is: how do you see it as significantly different form the countless attempts to model BTC price as an (exponential) function of time, the most well known one on this forum the linear regression of BTC price mapped to a log chart (recently rpietla made a big thread about this, IMO, rather uninformative method).
Looking at the graph in your Italian post (the blue line in the last graph, right?), it looks to me like your "formula" suffers from the same problem as the purely time dependent (linear regression) model: it gives a decent idea of the order of magnitude of BTC price at any time, but it is significantly off at times, and therefore more or less useless for trading -- more precisely: it is good to know that we can expect BTC price to be in the range of 1000 in mid 2014, but for example right now, your formula is "wrong", in an empirical sense, and it was even more off target a month ago.
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