Pretty graphs ...lol
In a paragraph what is your analysis of your data ??
Assuming exchange rate remains steady and hashpower is not vastly oversold in a short period of time.
The example vendor, BFL, could drop retail price by 62% and still net (not including staff) over 1 million USD in a two month period.
The bitcoin ASIC business is grossly profitable at all points in their output curve for the next year and a half. At the expense of miners and the bitcoin mining subsidy.
It's a 'pump and dump' like strategy. Pump out, drop the price, pump out for many iterations.
BFL already stated multiple times that they would not conduct any strategies that would be damaging to their existing miner base. I would assume this also includes "pump and dump."
You guys are so full of conspiracy theories, it's just amazing. Not every company is out to get you. Some actually do care about their customers...
I'm not really looking at BFL's statements. Just the data. BFL's revenue will drop and they will be faced with a decision to remedy. This will likely be at least a couple of iterations of dropping prices.
My point, based on the data, is that the initial offering of ASIC's are priced at such a level that, while NRE needs to be recovered, is so high that revenues will be maximized for a short period of time.
But this comes at the expense of ROI (in real terms) going up proportionally. So, the end of the first revenue cycle is achieved so quickly that BFL's revenues will drop to near nothing. Playing around with the data if unit prices dropped by 50% the mfg revenue and ROI curve would be much more linear. BFL makes 1-2 million USD a couple of months later and customers have ROI that remain under 300 days for 3 months longer.
Of course, this all assumes a relative lack of volatility with exchange rate or other dark horse event. Big if.
I'm actually kind of surprised you haven't come to this conclusion yourself (data). More over I'm surprised that anyone would place complete trust with any company that exists only to be profitable. A lot can transpire with a company that doesn't directly place them in conflict with their customers, but still is to the advantage of the company to the degree that customers could get a better deal and the company would still have a healthy bottom line. Hopefully competition will remedy this.
Seems like a pretty mindless defense of BFL. Do you have data to contradict this? Or is this a 'gut feeling' based on BFL's 'truthiness?' (for the Cobert fans)
I understand your Vendor mining angle but the old age saying off the people who sold the shovels and pans to mine made the most consistent return
Instead of gouging u once they can keep doing it by
doing an apple and wheel out v2 @ (x)G/hash and then v3 @ (y)G/Hash
Same Single but with more ...includes steak knifes ...
BFL have worked the magic and loaded all risk onto their customer base (priceless)
Dont get me wrong i have 5k spread across bASIC & BFL so I am a realist.
If I can get a 10% return p/month I will be extremely happy...(this equates to an increase in difficulty of ~x27) the dreams of putting ASIC numbers into GPU calculations are smoking crack...(no offence to those that do..lol)
Will mine LTC via GPU rigs until ASIC bullshit sorts itself out..as a new comer there is more to BTC/LTC than mining ...so many oppurtunitys it makes me giddy
Worked for banking (still do @ moment) institutions for past 6 years... BTC is so exciting as an unregulated currency with so much potential that ASIC/BFL crap is just short term problems in dealing with people that r a means to an end
Do i believe these guys are good/legit for the community ...NO...but in the big picture u are always working with people that r (how can i put it..not my cup of tea)
The whole rewards/points systems are out there ready to be leveraged via BTC...LTC has its place as the solution for low cost coins or the change u get from BTC as a reward system...
i.e people recieve 10 LTC for buying/flying/using this service
BTC is no good when a user gets .0003 of a BTC whereas LTC is cool for LTC $35 equals ~$2.25 US which is what u would give away on an transaction via a rewards system...companys are dieing to put this liability of thier balance sheet that they engage 3rd party organisatioons to do it....the idea of tunring this arena into a profit center via various means is a totally new approach to an existing problem of moving liability from the bottom line by themselfs or a 3rd party (even if u become this 3rd party company via mining activities that provides the currency etc..etc ..u get my drift)
Just 1 idea...mining/OTC trading are a couple of perspectives and not really focused on the potential of what an electronic currency has to offer (my personal viewpoint)
People need to look outside thier viewpoint to see the potential.... as it is huge
1 day soon the commercial world will figure BTC out and then watch out as they will swoop down to close out all of this opportunity..
I am so thankful I have come across this paradigm at the early stages of its development and also have the exact skillset to take opportunity of this bountiful harvest..its like i was made to do this (goldfever talking)
I am going to run with it.....just on mining the commercial world getting ~10% return per month on investment is
inasane I know so many brokers who would cream thier pants to tell that story to thier clients
Solar is now @ 1k per kwatt with a coverage x 1.7 to cover night time so current LTC/BTC mining via GPU cost profile comes out at 13 months for 100% ROI (insane)
Anyways thats my 0.0002 santaoshis or 2 LTC worth as a new comer looking in for the past 11 days of the BTC/LTC world
Cheers
YipYip
