Old coins on the move

[oblomov]

Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship.

I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".

The chart that OP posted, is a chart showing great spikes that occured in the last month, where BTC that had spent a lot of time in stasis, started being sent between wallets. Within a day or two, BTC exchanges started crashing.

I understand your perspective, but since I'm putting significant money on the line (>>6 BTC) I need to have solid evidence, not just eyeballing charts.

The evidence over the past year is mixed:  a slight downward bias, probably not tradeable given spreads and exchange fees.

If it's enough for you, well, good- that's what makes a market.  I prefer to wait for the fat pitch.

[abs350]

Yeah we are having some consolidation right now. I agree with OP someone is selling a lot of coins. However someone is also buying that's why we are not seeing a big crash.

SOMEONE IS BUYING PEOPLE. THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING A BIG CRASH.

After this whale has finished their selling and we are out of the consolidation we are gonna see a big move up to $1k I predict

[MatTheCat]

Yeah we are having some consolidation right now. I agree with OP someone is selling a lot of coins. However someone is also buying that's why we are not seeing a big crash.

SOMEONE IS BUYING PEOPLE. THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT SEEING A BIG CRASH.

After this whale has finished their selling and we are out of the consolidation we are gonna see a big move up to $1k I predict

pfffft...

'they' start the buying from Joe Public down the button, then 'they' sell to Joe Public up the top...then they sell some more, then some more, and then even more...eventually, Joe Public panics, and sells 'them' all his BTC, which 'they' then start to sell back up top.

Whole market is a fucking racket and 'they' are only it to make a fast buck, just like all the rest of us are.....difference is, 'they' have all the cards up their sleeves, and we are just fumbling around 2n guessing what the fuck 'they' are going to do next.

As for $1K target...yep....could see it happen, as very top of parabolic move. If I am holding BTC when it hits $1K, I will be selling hand over fist.

[americanpegasus]

This is exactly why Monero and Aeon will be the future of cryptocurrency, and not Bitcoin. 
 
Everyone deserves financial privacy. 

[monsanto]

The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.

Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:


Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
21-Feb-15   27080982   245.66   252.98   3.0%
11-Mar-15   21316459   293.29   265.85   -9.4%
23-Apr-15   52616145   235.48   235.13   -0.1%
09-Aug-15   21986569   265.42   257.47   -3.0%
24-Aug-15   24138383   213.24   230.94   8.3%
26-Aug-15   23636756   228.84   230.68   0.8%
07-Nov-15   22926715   387.38   331.90    -14.3%
08-Jan-16   47974258   447.04   391.62   -12.4%
23-Jan-16   47285851   388.50      
                    average % change      -3.4%
                               % down   63%


This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.


Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:

Date           BDD           Price           Price 7d+   % change
04-Feb-15   303016   222.56   221.99   -0.3%
08-Feb-15   174903   223.50   243.99   9.2%
09-Mar-15   312469   287.48   290.88   1.2%
14-Mar-15   312975   284.21   257.83   -9.3%
26-Mar-15   204256   251.98   252.44   0.2%
29-Mar-15   337273   244.05   257.03   5.3%
19-Apr-15   224641   225.72   218.42   -3.2%
10-May-15   308217   239.35   235.78   -1.5%
12-Sep-15   321233   235.13   230.71   -1.9%
13-Sep-15   341842   229.86   230.20       0.1%
27-Sep-15   314624   232.85   239.47   2.8%
            
                    average % change      -0.9%
                               % down   50%

So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average.  The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.
:
 

Interesting analysis. Did you apply any filters to the age of BDD? There are several available:

Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Week) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 week.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Month) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 month.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-month
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (Filtered By Min Age 1 Year) - Filtered by minimum input age of 1 year.
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

I'd be most interested in minimum age of 1 year. It makes the most recent movements seem more pronounced.

[Newcoins2020]

This is exactly why Monero and Aeon will be the future of cryptocurrency, and not Bitcoin.  
  
Everyone deserves financial privacy.  

I think some people forget the old coins. But if I see the old coins are also growing.

So we should not underestimate the old coins.

[richardsNY]

This is exactly why Monero and Aeon will be the future of cryptocurrency, and not Bitcoin. 
 
Everyone deserves financial privacy. 

I think some people forget the old coins. But if I see the old coins are also growing.
So we should not underestimate the old coins.

I think the people that forgot about their coins were waken up once the price reached $1000 and the media was heavily reporting about it. Nowadays every one knows what they have stored away for years. It's not a surprise anymore.

[gkv9]

This seems that big whales are now trying to either get out with their coins or are preparing to start some real price action on the go once they decide to either f*ck the markets or make it spike...