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NorrisK
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January 25, 2016, 07:49:04 AM |
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Cold storage movement are very likely. There were some posts last week of 300,000+ bitcoin transactions.
If those coins had been there for a while, they would easily reach those amounts of coin days.
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Amph
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January 25, 2016, 08:21:28 AM |
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i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash
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1Referee
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January 25, 2016, 09:28:55 AM |
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If these coins were really moved out of their old wallets to be dumped, then I would suspect the exchanges to let the price crash significantly before these coins post. Some exchanges have a hidden agenda and do insider trading. I think it's more likely that it is a large mining pool. Only they have that much coins. Or perhaps an exchange that is spreading their cold wallet coins. Other than that no one else has this many coins.
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justspare
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January 25, 2016, 09:43:47 AM |
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I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.
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coinzat
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Young but I'm not that bold
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January 25, 2016, 10:35:28 AM |
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I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.
I agree with you that no one is selling this big quantity in one time, because dumping them in one block is a big lose for the owner, If s/he wants to sell them s/he would sell them in small quantities in several days so s/he will not affect the price in a bad way
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gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht
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January 25, 2016, 11:24:30 AM |
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Who cares? Maybe they're not allowed to cold store in grandma's pussy any more, maybe they accidentally flashed private keys while jerking off on Skype at the local priest. No one's business but theirs. The only movement worth observation would be Satoshi's coins.
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MatTheCat
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January 25, 2016, 11:38:24 AM Last edit: January 25, 2016, 12:27:11 PM by MatTheCat |
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i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash
Well then Amph the Optimistic Sheep... Lets have a little look at the different spikes in BTC movement (anything over 15K), and what the market done around or after those times..... Prior to 10th August...we had the Log average give 21K days destroyed........August 14th, Bitcoin flash crashes down to $162 on Finex. Just after 24th August, a double spike, Bitcoin corrects from $230 down to $195 on Finex. Around 10th September, a spike of 16K days destroyed...market remains 'flat' albeit trending down over the following few days. Next big movement was on 2nd Nov, around 20K days destroyed...on 4th November, market tanks from $500 - $380 Then on the 9th Nov, another big movement of BTC around 23K this time......10th November, market tanks from $380 - $300 10th Jan Huge movement of BTC 47K.......12th Jan, market tanks from $450, bottoming out at $350 and now.....on the 25th Jan, another 47K Days Destroyed spike....... .......and Amph says 'Nothing to Worry About'. LOL! Amph... the gift that keeps on giving!
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Lutzow
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January 25, 2016, 11:42:47 AM |
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If this is true, they could dump coins in the exchange to create a market crash along with added Sell orders. Once the market stabilized itself again with the new low price, they'll start buying btcs again. So dumping coins is not far off plus it will definitely benefit anyone who knows what'll going to happen.
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justspare
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January 25, 2016, 12:00:48 PM |
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I doubt that they are selling their coins, they are probably just moving their coins from 1 account to another.
I agree with you that no one is selling this big quantity in one time, because dumping them in one block is a big lose for the owner, If s/he wants to sell them s/he would sell them in small quantities in several days so s/he will not affect the price in a bad way You would have to be pretty rich to buy a lot of coins at once. These guys were probably early investors and want to keep their coins safe.
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~Bitcoin~
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January 25, 2016, 12:21:54 PM |
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I think they want to make their coin in cold wallet more secure after seeing cryptsy cold wallet getting hacked. Dump at this point only cause a big loss for them and if they sell now definately they should be some noobs.
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| ligma | | | | ███ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ ███ ███ | | ███ ███ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ █ ███ ███ | | |
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Ayle56
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January 25, 2016, 12:33:23 PM |
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The price spiked to 500, then later to 465, then recently 420. The highs have been getting lower since November and big holders who have patiently waited for it to go above 500 again might have lost their patience. They might have decided this is the best price they will get in the short term.
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lumeire
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Next-Gen Trade Racing Metaverse
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January 25, 2016, 01:19:09 PM |
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So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next.
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randy8777
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January 25, 2016, 01:57:39 PM |
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So that's why we're back at sub-$400 now eh? Well if that's the case then it'll probably recover by this week or the next. if the owners of these coins would really dump these coins, then the price would easily tank to $200 and probably much lower than that. i think they are just moving their coins for security reasons.
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Amph
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Activity: 3248
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January 25, 2016, 02:52:00 PM |
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i don't think that they are dumping, why dumping now when the value is recovering, and thus coins already seen the 1200 ath, i think they will wait untill that point is reached again before even thinking to dump their stash
Well then Amph the Optimistic Sheep... Lets have a little look at the different spikes in BTC movement (anything over 15K), and what the market done around or after those times..... Prior to 10th August...we had the Log average give 21K days destroyed........August 14th, Bitcoin flash crashes down to $162 on Finex. Just after 24th August, a double spike, Bitcoin corrects from $230 down to $195 on Finex. Around 10th September, a spike of 16K days destroyed...market remains 'flat' albeit trending down over the following few days. Next big movement was on 2nd Nov, around 20K days destroyed...on 4th November, market tanks from $500 - $380 Then on the 9th Nov, another big movement of BTC around 23K this time......10th November, market tanks from $380 - $300 10th Jan Huge movement of BTC 47K.......12th Jan, market tanks from $450, bottoming out at $350 and now.....on the 25th Jan, another 47K Days Destroyed spike....... .......and Amph says 'Nothing to Worry About'. LOL! Amph... the gift that keeps on giving! besides the laught each time, you see that i was again right, the price is recovering in a shy way, like we have seen this many time why still anyone think that 350 will be the new high and we find ourselves suddenly, below it there is no reason for a dump now, really no reason when you think about the fact that the last price was achieved very slowly, not like the 1200 run up, people should really stop comparing with the past
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oblomov
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January 26, 2016, 07:45:06 AM |
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The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.
Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:
Date BDD Price Price 7d+ % change 21-Feb-15 27080982 245.66 252.98 3.0% 11-Mar-15 21316459 293.29 265.85 -9.4% 23-Apr-15 52616145 235.48 235.13 -0.1% 09-Aug-15 21986569 265.42 257.47 -3.0% 24-Aug-15 24138383 213.24 230.94 8.3% 26-Aug-15 23636756 228.84 230.68 0.8% 07-Nov-15 22926715 387.38 331.90 -14.3% 08-Jan-16 47974258 447.04 391.62 -12.4% 23-Jan-16 47285851 388.50 average % change -3.4% % down 63%
This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.
Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:
Date BDD Price Price 7d+ % change 04-Feb-15 303016 222.56 221.99 -0.3% 08-Feb-15 174903 223.50 243.99 9.2% 09-Mar-15 312469 287.48 290.88 1.2% 14-Mar-15 312975 284.21 257.83 -9.3% 26-Mar-15 204256 251.98 252.44 0.2% 29-Mar-15 337273 244.05 257.03 5.3% 19-Apr-15 224641 225.72 218.42 -3.2% 10-May-15 308217 239.35 235.78 -1.5% 12-Sep-15 321233 235.13 230.71 -1.9% 13-Sep-15 341842 229.86 230.20 0.1% 27-Sep-15 314624 232.85 239.47 2.8% average % change -0.9% % down 50%
So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average. The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.
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MatTheCat
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January 26, 2016, 03:44:10 PM |
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The fact is that a spike in BDD does not correlate strongly with a subsequent decline in price.
Here are the instances where BDD > 20MM over the past year:
Date BDD Price Price 7d+ % change 21-Feb-15 27080982 245.66 252.98 3.0% 11-Mar-15 21316459 293.29 265.85 -9.4% 23-Apr-15 52616145 235.48 235.13 -0.1% 09-Aug-15 21986569 265.42 257.47 -3.0% 24-Aug-15 24138383 213.24 230.94 8.3% 26-Aug-15 23636756 228.84 230.68 0.8% 07-Nov-15 22926715 387.38 331.90 -14.3% 08-Jan-16 47974258 447.04 391.62 -12.4% 23-Jan-16 47285851 388.50 average % change -3.4% % down 63%
This is even including the most recent instance, which may be an outlier.
Also, here are the instances where BDD <350K:
Date BDD Price Price 7d+ % change 04-Feb-15 303016 222.56 221.99 -0.3% 08-Feb-15 174903 223.50 243.99 9.2% 09-Mar-15 312469 287.48 290.88 1.2% 14-Mar-15 312975 284.21 257.83 -9.3% 26-Mar-15 204256 251.98 252.44 0.2% 29-Mar-15 337273 244.05 257.03 5.3% 19-Apr-15 224641 225.72 218.42 -3.2% 10-May-15 308217 239.35 235.78 -1.5% 12-Sep-15 321233 235.13 230.71 -1.9% 13-Sep-15 341842 229.86 230.20 0.1% 27-Sep-15 314624 232.85 239.47 2.8% average % change -0.9% % down 50%
So maybe we should be cautious when BDD is small relative to average. The average price change during the subsequent 7 days is -0.9%.
Whatever. I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.
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uki
Legendary
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Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
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January 26, 2016, 03:48:06 PM |
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dumping now doesn't make much sense if the coins have been stored for that long, why not waiting a bit more. The sentiment has changed to positive, thus, soon price should go higher. As written above, probably cold storage movements.
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oblomov
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January 26, 2016, 04:01:19 PM |
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Whatever.
I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.
Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship. I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever".
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MatTheCat
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January 26, 2016, 05:01:06 PM |
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Whatever.
I looked at the spikes on that chart, looked at when they occured, and looked at what happened to Bitcoin shortly thereafter and I seen a very distinct relationship.
Then show the evidence for a statistically significant relationship. I provided data and evidence, and the best you can muster is "Whatever". The chart that OP posted, is a chart showing great spikes that occured in the last month, where BTC that had spent a lot of time in stasis, started being sent between wallets. Within a day or two, BTC exchanges started crashing.
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