With the recent release of Bitcoin Unlimited, last time I checked,
0.6% of the network nodes had switched. These nodes will accept blocks greater than 1 MB **TODAY**. That is, they do not need to wait until something like BIP101 activates.
Bitcoin Unlimited has now proven empirically that individual nodes can increase their own personal block size limits and stay perfectly in sync with consensus. On the other hand, no rational miner would dare to publish a block greater than 1 MB today because it would certainly be orphaned. But eventually when enough nodes have increased their own block size limits for what they will accept, a brave miner will produce a large block, it will be accepted into the Blockchain, and we'll look back at this debate and laugh.