By the time you get this: july/august you will have a difficulty rate of 40-50million.
Assuming we have the value of bitcoin around 100$ and a diffculty of 50million while mining at 5 GH/s the revenue would be 150$ a month.
Add up power costs, and it makes it almost obsolete..
Alright how do you get to that rate? From what I heard, they have 75.000 chips for shipping. that makes 800mh/s per chip.
75.000 times means this is about 60gh/s.
Thats doubling the hash rate. How is that adding up to 40-50 Million? If difficulty is proportional to hash rate, it should be somewhere around 20 million at a doubling of hash rate --> still profitable.
ASIC companies will likely not flood the market with too many products, it would be sucky business. Instead, flooding the market "a little bit" to make the decrease in profitability over time is smarter.
Because then, the sale of MORE equipment is a better proposition. Let us consider you have to reinvest about 30-40% of your mining profits back into new equipment to maek the same. Every year. How does that sound for a market?
Basically, as long as competition does not start cranking out millions of units, keeping the market growing slowly is more intelligent for every involved ASICs company. Make people FEEL the burn, feel the dwindling profits and then BOOM sell another, more powerful unit.
I mean look at people right now. Difficulty is going up, BFL is slowly shipping, people go nuts. LOOK AT THE EBAY PRICES. Damn, it is already working. So, offering a limited number of units with equal power to the difficulty increase a year --> guaranteed profit.
That difficulty of 40-50 million is from a blog analysis that has quite solid estimates.
I've read somewhere that someone had order #50 000+ that means more than 50k devices, yeah..
huge profits from ASIC is too good to be true.
When was earning money easy, anyways?
I have an order number in the millions. From my knowledge of shopsystems, that does actually not say too much. Especially with the fact that they migrated them.
If it goes up to 50 Million and you have a miner with 50GH/s. Then, wow, you only make 17k USD at today's price. Likely BTC are going to be worth the same, or more. Depending on how screwed up our European governments are and create reasons to buy Bitcoin.
While my trust in BFL shipping is a risky bet, the bet on the EU governments to fuck up the economy, sorry, that one is pretty much a sure bet
So, yeah, it is not a get rich quick model. Who cares? It gets to break even at some point and that is all it counts.
And for the Jalapeno:
Here in my country we have power costs over 0.30 in USD. I have costs of approximately 110 USD for a 7970 at full power. A Jalapeno comes with 40-50watts as we had seen before...
What COULD screw this whole system up however, is Enterpoint's Cairnsmore 3, where they are looking at Terahash Blades.
Another thing on investments: Normally, investments that go double digit per YEAR are really awesome. So if someone recoups the whole investment in 4 months, then has 8 months to pay dividends, this is BEYOND awesome in terms of investing strategy.
