When BFX Goes down, BTC will be at $500

[NiceSoft12]

It's a carbon copy of 2012/13.

2012/13:

Good news: Winklevoss ETF, btc funds arising, publicity

Price: $100 - $1200

Bad News: China regulates BTC related bank tx, just a tipping point

Price: $1200 to $100

MTGOX closes for good, multi year bear market.

2017/18:

Good News: CME, BTC Derivatives market entering Wall Street

Price: $500 - $20,000

Bad News: South Korea Hacked, China bans BTC, so all the Chinese BTC cannot be sold.... which will eventually be laundered to new exchanges to be redeemed.

Price: $20,000 to $10,000 (thus far)

BFX might close down for good.

It's a carbon copy of 2012/13....

[TERA2]

Idk if I agree with $500 but it could be the catalyst for my 'impossible' call of of $5.5k or $3k.

Question:

When BFX goes down, does it take Tether with it?

[Wilhelm]

We survived MtGox and BTC-e  

[willope]

Remember that finex already survived after a big "hack".

[figmentofmyass]

It's a carbon copy of 2012/13.

MTGOX closes for good, multi year bear market.

it might be. i think it would be a nasty shock to the market, but i also agree with the sentiment that no single exchange has nearly as much market power as gox did back then. with bitflyer, bithumb and coinbase in the mix (as well as dozens of competitors), i think the shock would be absorbed fairly quickly.

i know btc-e wasn't nearly as big as bitfinex, but it was one of the oldest, reliable exchanges. when it went down, it hardly moved the market at all. and the bull market accelerated after that (much like after the silk road bust in 2013).

[gentlemand]

Well, OP started off today with a good game then he became more ludicrous as time went on. By this point I think he's exhausted all options and it's time for the substitutes to come on the field to replace him.

[NiceSoft12]

Well, OP started off today with a good game then he became more ludicrous as time went on. By this point I think he's exhausted all options and it's time for the substitutes to come on the field to replace him.

Look, another similarity between this crash (it's not finished yet, you'll see) and 2013 crash, are the bulls that are in denial. Just like the bears that are in denial during the bull run, making FUD after FUD, the bulls are doing the same thing now.

[Murloc]

First of all Bitcoin did not reached the point of 10$k, it stopped falling around 14k and now it is finaly green over the last 24h. I can hardly belive that BTC will roll back to 500$. Maybe 2k, but not 500$. Even in this case right after such a big dump I will run to the nearest bank and lend as much as I can . It doesn't mean that cryptocurrencies will die after it.

[armansolis593]

First of all Bitcoin did not reached the point of 10$k

It did hit below 10K and coinbase stop all transaction during that period and resume after 15 minutes.

I can hardly belive that BTC will roll back to 500$.

Believing this is ridiculous,even if there was a major crash that will happen of course it wont go down that far, 500$ is way to much of a value and is not acceptable with the current players involving bitcoin right now.

[pooya87]

so lets see what we have here, in the real world not the imaginary one.

2013:
* bitcoin is getting popular, it can be mined with PC and it is going up.
* there are multiple exchanges but market was in the hands of MtGox who controlled more than 85% of the volume and the whole market. in comparison today's exchanges control nothing more than 10% at best. if you want to know what that means MtGox to other exchanges is like comparing Coinbase with bleutrade!
* now MtGox uses this power to pump bitcoin price with fake everything. price goes to ATH in less than a month.
* MtGox aka the only reason price went up, runs away so price comes back down. meanwhile mining is becoming impossible to do with PC and slowly becomes a huge investment, so people sell what they have mined and get out.
=> result: crash and bear market.

2017
* a lot of countries have actually adopted bitcoin as a legal currency/commodity/... they call it different things and have different laws but they have adopted it.
* there are a lot of merchant adoptions which was never available back in the days.
* market has grown ridiculously huge that as i said above the biggest exchanges with lots of fake volume only have 10% of the market share at best.
* there is mainstream adoption which nobody even thought possible!
* bitfinex which OP so loves, was hacked last year and for a time it was thought that it is insolvent and will become the MtGox. result? price dropped only 20%-30% and recovered in less than 3 weeks.
* the worst fear this round was the "bitcoin is gonna split and die" which could only result in a 30% drop which only lasted less than a week. the current thing is not even comparable to that fear even though it is bigger due to the price being so much higher.

[TERA2]

Your points about 2017 are valid. However, you're neglecting that new we're at price levels 20 times higher than in 2013. So there is a much higher level to fall from and they balance out. You could say 'yes we have all these good things so now the price level of $800 (from 2013) is actually supported'. But we are not at $800 - we are at $14000+

[NiceSoft12]

so lets see what we have here, in the real world not the imaginary one.

2013:
* bitcoin is getting popular, it can be mined with PC and it is going up.
* there are multiple exchanges but market was in the hands of MtGox who controlled more than 85% of the volume and the whole market. in comparison today's exchanges control nothing more than 10% at best. if you want to know what that means MtGox to other exchanges is like comparing Coinbase with bleutrade!
* now MtGox uses this power to pump bitcoin price with fake everything. price goes to ATH in less than a month.
* MtGox aka the only reason price went up, runs away so price comes back down. meanwhile mining is becoming impossible to do with PC and slowly becomes a huge investment, so people sell what they have mined and get out.
=> result: crash and bear market.

2017
* a lot of countries have actually adopted bitcoin as a legal currency/commodity/... they call it different things and have different laws but they have adopted it.
* there are a lot of merchant adoptions which was never available back in the days.
* market has grown ridiculously huge that as i said above the biggest exchanges with lots of fake volume only have 10% of the market share at best.
* there is mainstream adoption which nobody even thought possible!
* bitfinex which OP so loves, was hacked last year and for a time it was thought that it is insolvent and will become the MtGox. result? price dropped only 20%-30% and recovered in less than 3 weeks.
* the worst fear this round was the "bitcoin is gonna split and die" which could only result in a 30% drop which only lasted less than a week. the current thing is not even comparable to that fear even though it is bigger due to the price being so much higher.

When I say "carbon copy" I'm using it as an expression; I don't mean it literally. How could anything be a carbon copy of something else in the real world?

Look you bring up some points but it's not the same. Since Bitcoin survived MTGOX, the fear of Bitfinex crashing is much less now. The 20-30% drop wasn't because of Bitfinex, but manipulation.

There are a lot of parallels that you are not including.