How to predict crash?

[prophetx]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...

[imrer]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...

This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?

[prophetx]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...

This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?

Not sure I can give any good advice other then just everday adjust your order to 30% under market price before you go to sleep...  one day you win the lottery... for example look at the night sr was taken down (it was night time for me)

Then do not get too greedy, I usually am happy with 50%, but definitely at 100% you should take out your original buy amount.

Also I just noticed that the all time high was actually much higher on btchina, it was something like 300.  Since they lead the rally, I need to figure out what the fibonacci retracements would be for them.

[imrer]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...

This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?

Not sure I can give any good advice other then just everday adjust your order to 30% under market price before you go to sleep...  one day you win the lottery... for example look at the night sr was taken down (it was night time for me)

Then do not get too greedy, I usually am happy with 50%, but definitely at 100% you should take out your original buy amount.

Also I just noticed that the all time high was actually much higher on btchina, it was something like 300.  Since they lead the rally, I need to figure out what the fibonacci retracements would be for them.

How do you mean being happy with 50% or 100%? So you buy it 30% cheaper and sell back when you earn 150% to 200% of originial amount?

[Dangolbery]

easy - use a crystal ball.  

Crystal ball? What is this nonsense?

Just ask the all-knowing one.

It says that the price will go to $240 before diving to $40. Remember, this is what it said. Take it as a mountain of salt.

For it to hit $40 the NSA would have to come out and says they are going to focus all their resources on destroying Bitcoin.

That gives me an idea on how to get cheap coins, if i can fake some news articles.

[morningtime]

Nobody here can answer this question.

This guy, Didier Sornette, can, and has proven it:
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html

Probably related to Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) crash prediction:
http://www2.math.su.se/matstat/reports/serieb/2009/rep7/report.pdf

I'm working on my prediction, trying to use LPPL applied to Bitcoin data. Will post when I have results!

[morningtime]

Some more, the Bubble Index:
http://www.prlog.org/12161811-the-bubble-index-predicting-stock-market-crashes.html

[Kazimir]

How to predict crash in bitcoin price or any bubble in general? It's not all random and some guys seem to guess right when that happen. Any tips or insights?

If you could predict it, so could the majority, so they'd get out in time and sell before the crash. Which would actually make the crash happen earlier. Which, if predicted, would recursively cause the crash to occur even earlier. And so- OMG, that means it's about to crash!! SELL SELL

One can only predict if it will happen, not when.