So how do make a well informed guess with probability of happening over 50%?
You are asking the right question.
To make a well informed guess you must be well informed. In order to be well informed you must inform a lot. Reading a lot about bitcoin here, on reddit. Be also well informed about the broader economy, cycles, money, banking, markets, politics, psychology, entrepreneurship, investing, innovation, history etc. Ie: a vivid curiosity for knowledge and understanding is required.
Then your probability calculation will be better informed.
Capital allocation strategy is also crucial. It does not make sense to go all out on a probability of only 60% for a correction. Use the
Kelly criterion to scientifically calculate how much you should bet on a certain odd.
And learning from your mistakes. When you end up losing money, was your probability calculation correct looking back on it? And did you scale the capital correctly? Or did greed or fear influence your probability estimation or allocation decision?
After you did all that you may decide it ain't worth it and switch to a simple buy and hold.