Very interesting article and conclusion. I tend to agree with researchers. Check this out:
We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warningof market instabilities, quantifying a high crashhazardand probabilistic bracketof the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel’s back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).
Original source to download full research:
https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05663I think the bitcoin in 2018 can still increase and can have a better value than it is today. The market is currently experiencing a crisis of confidence because of the large number of panicked sellers who can not stand the trust, but the belief in bitcoin can grow and will make bitcoin a high value.
