Monthly updates and thoughts about the market

[JayJuanGee]

<...>
Nothing can be challenged about gold as a store of value over thousands of years, and all the other applications it has today - but it is crucial that gold has been proven over a very long period of time (in human terms), while on the other hand Bitcoin has yet to prove its worth - and no matter the time we live where things are evolving far faster than 50 years ago, I think it will take at least another 10 years to see how Bitcoin will position itself in relation to already proven things like gold, silver, stocks, real estate...

When I say another 10 years, I mean a total of 20 years from the first block, because Satoshi himself said something along those lines when he wrote: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." How applicable this thesis is, given that Satoshi could not have foreseen everything that has happened so far, and of course what will happen in the future - remains to be seen.

Every day bitcoin has volume, this makes bitcoin more resilient, anti-fragile, and closer to the Shelling-poin of money.

As I said in my third post here onBitcointalk:

<...>
Bitcoin is a huge bet but while I don’ know if in 10 years bitcoin would be worth 1 million or zero (or course I have an idea), I am absolutely sure that in 10 years every present shitcoin (all of them, but bitcoin) will be worth ZERO.
<...>

Now two years have passed and bitcoin made incredible progresses in the right direction, while the fiat shitcoins have made horrible steps in hte wrong directions. Don't forget that the US Dollar is not 200 years old, but it is only almost 50 years old. You cannot consider the Dollar before the 1971 in the Gold Standard being the same as the Dollar after the end of Gold Standard, that was actually an hidden default.

So yes, we prety much agree on the 2030 date to state the successfulness of the bitcoin experiment. I just added an appointment in my agenda!

Bitcoin is already successful as fuck.


Sure you can set some measure in the future as do or die or as some kind of meaningful measurement, but who cares?

Bitcoin is still progressing, advancing and adding to network effects.

There are also a lot of ways that bitcoin success can be measured, and surely, I bitcoin is far along the spectrum of making progress whether we measure from two years ago, five years ago, or some other interval short of its 11.5 year to nearly 12 year life (whether we are measuring from the release of the white paper or the first block that was subsequently mined).

I'm definitely still considering this a (so far successful) experiment. Willing to re-assess that in 2030 too;)

Why not both?

I can concede that bitcoin is an experiment, and I can proclaim that with even a current status assessment bitcoin is successful as fuck.. maybe even more successful than what could have been imagined at previous prudently attempting to project forward viewpoints.

Of course, another assessment can be made in 2030 to measure where bitcoin is at... which I can also proclaim is a so fucking what?  We will see it when we see it... bitcoin is already successful and who cares about 2030.. except just make sure that you have some bitcoin in case it catches on (which it already has.. hint.. hint... hint)...   

[exstasie]

That's quite easy to say now, in hindsight, after the Fed pumped $3 trillion in QE (75% of its balance sheet) inside ~3 months, with another $3 trillion in stimulus spending by Congress over the same period. These levels of market intervention were completely unprecedented. We're talking 10x the size of TARP and beyond. It's downright silly to make comparisons to previous generations of QE and say it was rational to buy the knife in March (or not to sell) on that basis.

It's funny, I was one of the only people around here predicting a V-bottom in stocks back in March-April. Now everyone is trying to act like it was so obvious.....

I don't want to be too technical, but of course when oil traded negative or equity dividend were battered of course it was very easy to pickup a good trade.

I disagree. Most people I know got slaughtered with puts or hedge shorts, thinking April/May was just a temporary bounce. I am talking about seasoned traders here. Hardly what I would call "easy" trading.

You can only say it was easy with the benefit of hindsight, now that you've seen a total reversal since March. At the time, it was anything but. Catching the knife based on conventional wisdom would have been sensible after a 10% decline. .......But then the SPX ended up crashing 36%. That's what being rational gets you: bagholding. And like I said, nobody could have predicted the Fed and Congress were going to inject money an order of magnitude bigger than 2009. It's only in hindsight that we can see the liquidity situation for what it truly is.

[fillippone]

That's quite easy to say now, in hindsight, after the Fed pumped $3 trillion in QE (75% of its balance sheet) inside ~3 months, with another $3 trillion in stimulus spending by Congress over the same period. These levels of market intervention were completely unprecedented. We're talking 10x the size of TARP and beyond. It's downright silly to make comparisons to previous generations of QE and say it was rational to buy the knife in March (or not to sell) on that basis.

It's funny, I was one of the only people around here predicting a V-bottom in stocks back in March-April. Now everyone is trying to act like it was so obvious.....

I don't want to be too technical, but of course when oil traded negative or equity dividend were battered of course it was very easy to pickup a good trade.

I disagree. Most people I know got slaughtered with puts or hedge shorts, thinking April/May was just a temporary bounce. I am talking about seasoned traders here. Hardly what I would call "easy" trading.

You can only say it was easy with the benefit of hindsight, now that you've seen a total reversal since March. At the time, it was anything but. Catching the knife based on conventional wisdom would have been sensible after a 10% decline. .......But then the SPX ended up crashing 36%. That's what being rational gets you: bagholding. And like I said, nobody could have predicted the Fed and Congress were going to inject money an order of magnitude bigger than 2009. It's only in hindsight that we can see the liquidity situation for what it truly is.

One another factor that can turn a good idea in a bloodbath is the stop loss. A too tight stop loss can hinder the execution of a trade closing it too soon, if the timing is not perfect, something that is very likely to happen in a volatile market.

[El duderino_]

July-September

Dear shareholder,

We would like to inform you about recent developments within the crypto landscape.
We can cautiously conclude that the bear market of the last few years is over. This was characterised by large increases in a number of alt coins and a very stable Bitcoin, which is all in a strong historical level.


The future of Bitcoin looks bright. The block remuneration has already been halved for several months and traditionally we see the effect of this in the current months and towards the end of the year. As always, we are cautious about price forecasts for the future, but are nevertheless very optimistic given the past six months. Bitcoin's potential as a stable, reserve currency also continues to expand. We saw the company MicroStrategy for hundreds of millions of Bitcoin purchases. They decided after thorough research that it would be more interesting for the company to keep their cash reserves in Bitcoin rather than in fiat currencies such as US Dollars or Euros. You, as an investor in *****, made this choice a few years ago. It is good to see a listed company with hundreds of millions of passive capital making the same switch. In short, the outlook for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market looks good in our view.


This recent price increase within alt coins and stability within Bitcoin can be attributed to a new development within the crypto landscape with the abbreviation: DeFi. DeFi stands for Decentralized Finance and is a collective term for financial projects that use cryptocurrency. The innovative aspect is that these projects work together and that a link of financial primitives is formed. The emergence of decentralized exchanges that act as an automated market maker, allowing anyone with an ethereum wallet to switch between cryptocurrencies easily and securely, without the involvement of third parties, is a major breakthrough. The user himself can also make his cryptocurrency available for this exchange. He will then receive a portion of the costs that others pay when they switch between cryptocurrencies as a reward. If you make your cryptocurrency available in this way, it is possible to generate passive income. You can then demonstrate this availability and use it in other projects for even more passive income. A complex web of links and financial opportunities is emerging and evolves daily. This is truly a revolutionary breakthrough that we have actually been waiting for for several years, namely, the productive use of cryptocurrency in the crypto economy.

It is true that this is a very new evolution. The risks are indeed present. Mainly technical risk, where a system appears to contain errors and can lead to loss of funds. That is why we are in a difficult situation inside *****. On the one hand, we would like to participate in these lucrative activities. On the other hand, this could be too high a risk. What if such a project goes completely wrong and we incur significant losses? Since all the profits that would be made would go entirely to the portfolio of *****, we should also put all possible losses there. This scenario may be unacceptable to some shareholders.

With my personal capital I have been exploring this new sector for several weeks. We build up knowledge and we can also use this knowledge for ***** if desired. I therefore appeal to you, as a shareholder of *****, to let me know your opinion by e-mail. If you are confident in a further mobilization of the funds within ***** and would like to bear the extra risk of this, please send me an email at *****. You can also let me know if you explicitly do not want this activity to be used. I will then take into account the different opinions.

As always, your capital is in safe and responsible hands. With due diligence I watch over the portfolio and ensure that it meets the expectations of you as a shareholder. Hence the hesitation in simply increasing the risk profile of the investment.

I also have to apologize for the temporary malfunction of the dashboard. You may have noticed this in the chart above. For a while the price data was no longer displayed. This was due to a technical defect and has since been resolved. The development and maintenance of the dashboard is done by a freelance developer and this is not always available. Obviously, this defect has no impact on the value of your investment.

Finally, we would like to add that past results are no guarantee of future returns. This newsletter also does not contain investment advice.

(written by a close friend of me)

[ft73]

Well, for what's worth i see this way: sideways into triangle with some short term bearish bias:



Triangle breakout will ignite next move ( eyes on MM20/W ).
Whatever, so far trend on monthly may still play like this:



A bull run would require reaching (first place) about 12.800$, hence triggering Parabolic SAR reversal + piercing of upper BB.

[fillippone]

July-September

Dear shareholder,

<...>

It is true that this is a very new evolution. The risks are indeed present. Mainly technical risk, where a system appears to contain errors and can lead to loss of funds. That is why we are in a difficult situation inside *****. On the one hand, we would like to participate in these lucrative activities. On the other hand, this could be too high a risk. What if such a project goes completely wrong and we incur significant losses? Since all the profits that would be made would go entirely to the portfolio of *****, we should also put all possible losses there. This scenario may be unacceptable to some shareholders.
<...>

Very Interesting. Of course I don't know anything about who wrote this or the institution he represents, but only knowing that they are looking into DeFi, puzzles me.
He's correct stating that the main, non addressable risk is the technical one: smart contract are complicated, and code auditing is a long, slow and risky process. And losing client money because a technical fault is even worse that losing it for bad trading, I would say.

[El duderino_]

Octobre-Novembre, fund update...

The last few weeks have been phenomenal for cryptocurrencies. We have seen a very large appreciation of especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second leading cryptos. This increase was always in our expectations, as we have also indicated in previous posts. We have been very bullish for several months now. We suspect this is the first phase of a new bull run, which historically has a target well above the previous apex. We saw this previous peak at around USD 20,000 in 2017, but this was a very temporary snapshot. The price has only stayed at this level for a very short time and this peak was the ultimate expression of a gigantic run-up and buying mania. Today's price is close to our pinnacle at the time, but now the price action is much more stable and much more sustainable. The last months have shown a very strong market with an even more positive outlook than previous months. The phases that will unfold in the coming year are the reason why you are investing in these coins to experience exponential growth and to enjoy truly parabolic price appreciation.

Our strategy for the coming year is as follows. The main portion of the portfolio will always remain invested in Bitcoin. We invest a second piece in Ethereum, a clearly lonely pursuer with its own story and potential. Furthermore, we are rearranging the portfolio to add some of the most promising altcoins. We focus on certain altcoins that can already present a certain market penetration and that have gathered a strong community around them. It is in 2020 that when it comes to altcoins and the direction they are heading, the wheat will be separated from the chaff. It's now easier to see where there is traction and where future inventions and innovation will take place. In previous years this vision was much more obscure.

The intention is to convert part of our crypto into euros in the event of a large, significant appreciation. So in this way we are going to try to play big swings up and down, but in an extremely careful and thoughtful way. As an end owner, you do not have to worry about sales. We understand that at some point you may want to make profits because you see the market rising sharply. But you can rest assured that we are busy realizing this profit ourselves and, if possible, buying it back cheaper. There is a risk that the currencies will appreciate even further in value and we will end up on the sidelines with part of the portfolio. Regardless, this is not the first time we have experienced this market cycle, our strategy is clear and we are confident in our ability to navigate the best we can in the coming months.


Written by a close friend

[LeGaulois]

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed. I don't think we'll reach the same level despite the fact that some speculate on almost surrealist rates https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1250770006633091072 but we'll see. At least for some time now it's starting to get more interesting.

Off-topic question but do you know what is their portfolio and how it is split?

[El duderino_]

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed. I don't think we'll reach the same level despite the fact that some speculate on almost surrealist rates https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1250770006633091072 but we'll see. At least for some time now it's starting to get more interesting.

Off-topic question but do you know what is their portfolio and how it is split?

I think it's something like this atm
But the fund is mostly for people who doesn't know to much about BTC-crypto or elder people, but whom still wanna be involved whiteout any headache or issues or whatsoever ...

[exstasie]

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed.

We had a year of insanity in 2017. Tested the previous ATH in January, bubbled popped in December. Before that we had a good 1.5 years of a tamer bull market. Seems like a long time to me, at least in Bitcoin Land.

I honestly don't want more than a year of bubble type action. It completely takes over your life, at least if you're a trader. Too many opportunities and excitement in front of the computer to actually go out and enjoy life.

[El duderino_]

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed. I don't think we'll reach the same level despite the fact that some speculate on almost surrealist rates https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1250770006633091072 but we'll see. At least for some time now it's starting to get more interesting.

Off-topic question but do you know what is their portfolio and how it is split?

I think it's something like this atm
But the fund is mostly for people who doesn't know to much about BTC-crypto or elder people, but whom still wanna be involved whiteout any headache or issues or whatsoever ...

The Asset portfolio changed a bit

[El duderino_]

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed.

We had a year of insanity in 2017. Tested the previous ATH in January, bubbled popped in December. Before that we had a good 1.5 years of a tamer bull market. Seems like a long time to me, at least in Bitcoin Land.

I honestly don't want more than a year of bubble type action. It completely takes over your life, at least if you're a trader. Too many opportunities and excitement in front of the computer to actually go out and enjoy life.

Indeed, making money is important (as some say money doesn't make happy...) imo its not true, just need a good balance of enjoying the comfort and abilities of the money and maybe don't try to catch all of the money, to have above average and being able to do things with does you love is most important, eventually time will catch every one of us, so spend that time very balanced and very well.

[lixer]

The sudden increase was caused by everyone, it was a great moment I hope that we can have higher and higher levels this year as well. However do not mistake 2018 with what is ahead of us. 2018 was the year we had many many bad stuff that resulted with the drop, for example the biggest two things we can name will be mt.gox trustee selling all the coins they had in order to pay some of the debt back, which is an ethically good move but financially an idiotic one.

Or maybe multiple exchanges being hacked, or companies like amazon going into crypto in 2017 but getting out in 2018. There are tons of things we can count that shows 2018 was just a bad year, it wasn't really about bitcoin itself.

[El duderino_]

December update

Dear shareholder,

Today we look back briefly on 2020, but we mainly look forward to 2021.

2020 will go down in history as the year of Corona. However, we want to look back on the past year in a positive way.

2020 will also go down in history as the year in which Bitcoin came to the fore in the financial markets, something we have been anticipating with ****** for a number of years.

It seems more and more that the pandemic has awakened investors.

The realization has come that there is a need for an alternative form of money.

A form that does not tolerate interference from central entities, a form that allows anyone in the world to transfer value across the internet.

A form of which the issue has been mathematically determined in advance.

Where in 2017 we saw a refuge from the retail investor in Bitcoin and the Crypto market as a whole, today we see a tsunami of institutional interest.

This explains the huge price increase in the past quarter. These institutions have a huge amount of money available that they can allocate to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has already well exceeded its 2017 high. This caught us a bit in speed but we can of course only applaud this!

We only mention Bitcoin here because it is often the only option for institutions that they look at. This mainly has to do with the fundamental value of Bitcoin as well as the liquidity required to absorb large positions.

These institutions mainly have a long-term vision, which gives us great confidence for the future.

We are very excited about what 2021 has in store. The ideal breeding ground is there to propel Bitcoin to unseen heights.

Central banks and governments have already announced that they will not deviate from their policies. The monetary experiment will begin a new chapter in the next decade.

This combined with a huge increase in the demand for Bitcoin as well as a decrease in the supply can only lead to fireworks.

Traditionally, we don't make predictions about the price of Bitcoin. However, the growth margin up is still very significant. As an investor, you have had to wait for several years. Often your position was at a loss for a long time. Fortunately, this market cycle is behind us and we can enjoy a better outlook.

As always, we follow the market closely and try to anticipate certain developments. When opportunities arise, we will seize them with both hands.

We wish you a happy end of year and a prosperous 2021!

[El duderino_]

2021 Q1 Update
Dear shareholders,

We've had an absolutely fantastic quarter. The price of Bitcoin has doubled in the last three months and had risen seriously before that. We have been spoiled for choice with positive news such as Tesla purchasing Bitcoin to track as a long-term investment. Slowly, large companies and institutions are also realizing how important it is to invest at least a part in Bitcoin. The amount of dollars and euros that have been printed in the last year also has to do with this. Bitcoin is one of the few assets that cannot simply be devalued by producing more of it.

At **** we have seen this trend form for years and we have responded to this a long time ago. 2021 seems to be the year where our wildest dreams in terms of Bitcoin valuation will come true. We anticipate a further increase as companies, banks and pension funds do their research and gradually start positioning themselves as the unwieldy structures that they are to also get their piece of Bitcoin. With your investment in **** you were ahead of them a few years, despite the negative press and the discouragement of so-called experts.

In the last 6 months, we at **** also started to diversify back into altcoins. While these other cryptos have outperformed slightly more secure Bitcoin during the 2018-2019 declining market, some have the potential to outperform as we are in a rising market. This diversification has already paid off. For example, Bitcoin's share of the portfolio fell from about 87% to below 80% due to the relative appreciation of cryptos such as DOT, SOL and ETH.

The future for 2021 looks bright. We do not have a crystal ball, but we feel that the industry as a whole is a lot more mature than in 2017-2018, where there was a big increase with an accompanying crash. In the meantime, we still see lasting trends that hide sustainable business models. They will not just disappear and most of the world has yet to get to know them. There is still a lot of room for growth and at **** we will try to take maximum advantage of this as always. As a shareholder, you still don't have to do anything. When Bitcoin goes again times 2 or times 3 from this point on, it may be appropriate to sell part of it. It all depends on what your current financial situation is. Has your investment in **** now become a significant part of your global portfolio? Then you probably still have gains that can seriously improve your quality of life. If your investment in **** is still a smaller portion of your investment portfolio, then you are more likely to want to keep this exposure.

Always keep in mind that the amounts you see in the dashboard are still gross amounts. This means that performance costs and taxes are still owed on this. This can sometimes lead to surprises when actually getting out. So don't count yourself too rich yet.

We thank you for your continued confidence and hope to achieve great results together with you in the future.

Finally, we would like to add that past results are no guarantee for future returns. This newsletter also does not contain investment advice.


Written by my friend for his fund shareholders.

[LeGaulois]

Finally after 3 months...


Greatly resumed by the way.

It's true Tesla gave us a positive trend for the BTC's price, as well as Microstrategy. And it's all that we need about. During the current year, if we could see 4 or 5 other companies doing the same, it could be a jackpot. $80,000 would become easily too hit. Without talking about an increase in the adoption from the average Joe
Even the so-called experts who were making fun of BTC will finally invest themselves in it. LOL

what could help to make it more mature is the government stopping to deny it and the banks start to offer BTC as an alternative investment in their portfolio, like a few banks in Germany

[El duderino_]

Indeed, such offerings would drive the price up high, just as government which would invest in BTC...