Monthly updates and thoughts about the market

[teosanru]

In terms of macroeconomic developments, we see that we are on the verge of global recession. We end up in a recession when economic growth is negative for 2 months in a row.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will react as a non-correlated asset in this new economic environment.
Bitcoin originated in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. We have since seen that central banks around the world have increased their balance sheets by printing money and accumulating debts.

Can you please make clear what makes you say that we are on a verge of global recession. I think the macroeconomic development merely indicate a phase of the whole market economy. Until now we haven't seen any great signs of a negative economic growth. At maximum we have seen a slight drop in GDP growth rate of the US economy to around 2.1% which still is considered normal. Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/glance . Moreover if you say that experts are predicting such a thing then as far as I remember the 2008 crash no experts were able to correctly predict the crash except one or two. So generally when expert say such thing it is to create some FUD in minds of people so that they can use it for their own good.

More than one or two, the reality is they were in complete denial, "All is fine!" ... while not. since 2002 people were saying it's going to happen.
Not even need to be an economist to guest it. Who created the subprime mortgage crisis in the US? What did they learn as a lesson from the 2008 crisis, nothing at all? Banks are still as weak as ever.

If you see no sign for a negative growth maybe you can see the result.
I mean how do you explain the past months'individuals, as well as investors, central banks, and governments, are starting to turn to safe havens such as gold or the Swiss franc

Interestingly after @LeGaulois reply i tried to search in portfolios of largest hedge funds.
1. Bridgewater Associates:https://fintel.io/i/bridgewater-associates-lp . They did reduce a lot of their portfolio from emerging markets which means mostly equities and increased portfolio on gold and bonds.
2. AQR capital management:https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/aqr-capital-management-llc-top-holdings/: They are still quite a lot on equity only. Just changed a bit from sector to sector.
3. Renaissance Technologies:https://fintel.io/i/renaissance-technologies-llc: Even they haven't changed much from equity to gold just shifting around equities here and there not much increase in cash too.

So out of top 3 funds just one is showing such signs and other two are not. I will try to dig deep into the other funds and figure something if i could.

[1714883526]

1714883526

[1Referee]

I mean how do you explain the past months'individuals, as well as investors, central banks, and governments, are starting to turn to safe havens such as gold or the Swiss franc

It could also be a speculative run by investors because they assume that a lot of money will be flowing into safe haven assets such as Gold. In other words, they try to front run the actual safe haven demand for Gold. Nowadays investors are so trigger happy to front run events, that they drive prices up much in advance just to front run other like minded investors.

I have always found the US stock market to be quite a reliable indicator as to what degree of fear we have in the global market, and thus far stocks are performing exceptionally well. In fact, the biggest stocks are on the brink of reaching new all time highs. That to me is not indicative of true or even looming fear.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Here it is said that all date indicates that recession is possible.
But recession can only be demonstrated after the facts, never before.
Because you need data from 2 quarters... That means that we are on the verge of recession.

Of course only in hindsight we can speak of a recession, so it will always be guessing, for now.

But data does not indicate much good!
Certainly not in EU or Asia... +trade wars....

[Febo]

I found this chart on the net and added last quarter to it. We can see how strong Q2 was. And correction was needed. 

[El duderino_]

After the sharp fall in the price at the end of September we saw a sideways movement of the price for a few weeks. Volatility fell sharply.

A fall in price fluctuations often precedes a strong increase in these fluctuations. This proved to be the case again. The price fell more than 10% in the third week of October followed by a huge price increase of more than 40% on 1 day. This is the 4th largest increase on 1 day in the history of Bitcoin.

We do not always try to find a reason why the price has such a sharp rise, but in this case there may be a direct link between a news fact and the appreciation of the price.

The Chinese government issued a message through Chinese media in which Xi Jingping (president of China) underlined the importance of adopting Blockchain technology for China. This came as a big surprise as China has so far taken measures to curb the development of issues related to Blockchain technology.

When the inhabitants of a country with more than one billion inhabitants see a news report in which their president speaks positively about a new technology, this will automatically generate interest among a part of the population. Certainly in a country where media censorship is extremely high.

In the short term, a news fact is used by market participants to raise the price to a higher level. When the storm about such a news event comes to an end, it will have to become clear whether it is also effectively increasing the demand for Bitcoin and alternatives from China.

In the macroeconomic field, a number of developments have also taken place in the past month that could influence the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (central bank of the United States) lowered its interest rate again. This with the intention of stimulating the economy. A reduced interest rate ensures that people will take out a loan faster and spend the money on their savings account faster. This decision pushed the S & P500 (Stock Index with 500 largest US companies) to new heights. This shows that the investor's appetite for risky investments is again high. This is the economic sentiment that a risky investment such as Bitcoin needs.

The probability that the correction from the temporary summit at the end of June has come to an end seems very high to us.
All this gives us good hope for a strong conclusion of 2019 and the following months.

[exstasie]

After the sharp fall in the price at the end of September we saw a sideways movement of the price for a few weeks. Volatility fell sharply.

A fall in price fluctuations often precedes a strong increase in these fluctuations. This proved to be the case again. The price fell more than 10% in the third week of October followed by a huge price increase of more than 40% on 1 day. This is the 4th largest increase on 1 day in the history of Bitcoin.

We do not always try to find a reason why the price has such a sharp rise, but in this case there may be a direct link between a news fact and the appreciation of the price.

The Chinese government issued a message through Chinese media in which Xi Jingping (president of China) underlined the importance of adopting Blockchain technology for China. This came as a big surprise as China has so far taken measures to curb the development of issues related to Blockchain technology.

When the inhabitants of a country with more than one billion inhabitants see a news report in which their president speaks positively about a new technology, this will automatically generate interest among a part of the population. Certainly in a country where media censorship is extremely high.

Any time the market moves with high volatility, it's tempting to link the move to the nearest news story. In this case, I really don't buy it. Events like these always highlight the schism between news/fundamentals traders and technical traders.

I think this is a good recollection of events:

Let's see the effects, XI makes his speech on the 24th. On the 25th (Chinese time) the news is aired all over China.
But!!!
Nothing happens!
But at 3-4 PM European time, and at 1 AM in the morning (on a SATURDAY) in China, the pump happens!

It was of course because of the Chinese running at midnight to their ATMs (ops, they don't have that in China), .. well-doing something else, (since the banks are closed) and ...they bought bitcoin!!! The Chinese miracle!!!!

In my opinion, the real reason the price moved so quickly was because of extreme lack of supply. This is visible in the charts:



See how the dump below $7,700 was done on such low volume? There was very little supply in the $7,000s. The way price quickly sprung back into the previous range is what Richard Wyckoff called a "spring." A low volume spring in particular indicates a total lack of sellers.

In other words, price fell out of equilibrium: everyone who was willing to sell the $7,000s (or $8,000s) already did. No supply on the market meant price had to be marked up into a new trading range, to find a new equilibrium.

If the move was purely a "news pump" the market would have quickly crashed again.

In the macroeconomic field, a number of developments have also taken place in the past month that could influence the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (central bank of the United States) lowered its interest rate again. This with the intention of stimulating the economy. A reduced interest rate ensures that people will take out a loan faster and spend the money on their savings account faster. This decision pushed the S & P500 (Stock Index with 500 largest US companies) to new heights. This shows that the investor's appetite for risky investments is again high. This is the economic sentiment that a risky investment such as Bitcoin needs.

Totally agreed on your last point. New ATHs in the equities markets shows that risk appetite is very high, which is great news for Bitcoin bulls.

[buwaytress]

A fall in price fluctuations often precedes a strong increase in these fluctuations. This proved to be the case again. The price fell more than 10% in the third week of October followed by a huge price increase of more than 40% on 1 day. This is the 4th largest increase on 1 day in the history of Bitcoin.

As once the dust settles from that huge run just over a week ago (that recent!), we'll probably settle into another period of low fluctuations (I note you use this term instead of volatility), setting us up for another wild period.

I think a few people will be disappointed that more sustained pushes towards big old 10k didn't happen, but what's a lot more reassuring to see is how stubbornly high a major Bitcoin bottom seems to be even after months of pummeling pressure from sellers.

Volume seems to be picking up too, so maybe you're right, appetites for risk increasing.

[El duderino_]

After the huge price increase at the end of November we saw a change in sentiment. The news that China, after years of aversion to Blockchain technology, suddenly sent positive signals about the technology to the world caused widespread positivism for the price in both the short and long term. A month later, this positivism had to make way for realism.

The full price increase of more than 40% has been reset, and meanwhile we have seen Bitcoin trading below $ 7000 for the first time since May 2019. The China hype has since subsided and it appears that this news will push the price to new heights in the short term. It was certainly not unrealistic to think this after the huge price appreciation. But as so often this can only be determined in the weeks after the facts have taken place.

We now see that the bull trend that started on April 1, 2019 has broken. This means that the structure of the price no longer makes new peaks, but that we consistently create lower heights and troughs. Until this structure is broken again, we expect that the price will not increase significantly in the short to medium term. Rather we are pushing for a further price drop to the level of $ 6000 per Bitcoin. However, this is guesswork and it does not change our vision for the long term.

As an investor, it is important that the average trend moves upwards over the years. This is still the case with Bitcoin. The price fluctuations in the short term are irrelevant if you have an investment horizon of 3-5 years. We also see that in 2019, Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset worldwide.


If we give feedback to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through, we see absolutely nothing to worry about. When Bitcoin reached the unlikely level of $ 1000 in December 2013 and then experienced a huge relapse, it took 162 weeks before we had reached this level again.

In December 2017, about exactly 4 years later, Bitcoin reached the level of nearly $ 20,000. After the decline we have seen through 2018 and the huge price increase in 2019, we are only 100 weeks away in this cycle. We therefore expect that 2020 will be a positive year for Bitcoin. Sometime in the coming months, we expect the price to form a new plateau, the next upward trend of which will start.

Though i'm feeling good to be back up 7000$ at this time

[Lucius]

micgoossens, a very good summary of the past year and a look to the near future. China news has certainly had a positive effect in the short term, but Bitcoin and blockchain are two different things and those who know it was aware that this could not change the trend. Bulls did their best in Q2 and they pumped the price over $10k, but the correction was inevitable, except for those who were expecting a new ATH.

One of the things we can keep track of is the repetitive cycles, so we can speculate on the next one, which, if repeated, could cause a new big bull run. Since we know that halving is the starting point of such a cycle, we can assume that the second half of 2020 will bring some positive changes that could culminate in Q3/Q4 2021.

It would be nice to move up from $7000, but I think we can still be pleased with this year, Bitcoin is still alive and the so-called Bitcoin killer (Libra) is no longer mentioned. All in all, the future doesn't look bad at all, at least for those who look at it in the long run.

[JayJuanGee]

After the huge price increase at the end of November we saw a change in sentiment. The news that China, after years of aversion to Blockchain technology, suddenly sent positive signals about the technology to the world caused widespread positivism for the price in both the short and long term. A month later, this positivism had to make way for realism.

I am a little confused about the historical reference for this statement.  We saw a 42% BTC price rise on about October 25, and then we have seen a trickle down and flat and various ongoing pushes in the downward direction since October 25th until present.  Maybe we have a double bottom in the mid $6ks, but the ongoing BTC price seems way too much hovering in the lower $7ks in order to have any kind of rest assurance that the potential double bottom in the mid-$6ks is going to be the end to the correction... maybe 50/50.. as far as I can speculate regarding whether there is going to be any further correction that might take us below the current and so far $6,425 local low of this correction that happened a couple of days ago.

And, by the way, fuck China as being any kind of meaningfully important causal factor in regards to BTC price dynamics.  You cannot really believe in any of these kinds of one-causal factors in regards to bitcoin price movements, which more likely a product of several factors - even if there could be some marginal effects that dominant factors, including "china" can have to influence BTC's price momentum from time to time.

The full price increase of more than 40% has been reset, and meanwhile we have seen Bitcoin trading below $ 7000 for the first time since May 2019. The China hype has since subsided and it appears that this news will push the price to new heights in the short term. It was certainly not unrealistic to think this after the huge price appreciation. But as so often this can only be determined in the weeks after the facts have taken place.

O.k... you do seem to be talking about the same things as me, which was a late price rise to $10,300 and then a somewhat drug out price drop over two months thereafter.

We now see that the bull trend that started on April 1, 2019 has broken. This means that the structure of the price no longer makes new peaks, but that we consistently create lower heights and troughs.

O.k. I largely accept your definition of falling out of a bull trend, that would largely cause the odds of the BTC price going down or staying flat greater than the odds for up, but I remain quite reluctant to concede that it is fair to assert that bull or bearish trends flip so quickly.  I think that with bitcoin we have to zoom out a bit and think about BIGGER trends, and sure, even though we might be in the midst of a pretty seemingly deep and drawn out correction time, I doubt that it is enough of a break down or even a time period in which we can really assert that the transition into the bull trend has been broken.

Of course, assessments can differ on these kinds of assessments and those are the kinds of thinking differences that contribute to the assigning of probabilities regarding which way people are going to differ in terms of where they believe that the BTC price is going to go from here.. whether short term, medium term or longer term.

Until this structure is broken again, we expect that the price will not increase significantly in the short to medium term.

"we"?  hahahahahaha Are these really your words?  Even though there have been very difficult to substantiate speculations that you might have a team, your style has not usually been to employ the royal "we"  that is what wannabe sorcerers tend to do.. or even troll/shills, and maybe you just slipped up here?

Regarding your substantive claim, sure... if "we" (meaning the BTC price) is kind of caught in a price range that is in the lower end of a consolidation range, then it can take a while to play out... consolidation tends to signify that neither side is really getting their way and the price is continuing to stay in an area until maybe one side or another achieves a lucky break in their preferred direction.... and if we are in a bull market then the odds for up are greater than the odds for down and if we are in a bear market the odds for down are greater than the odds for up, but no matter which market we are in, the price could end up breaking in the direction that is opposite of what the odds would predict.. which could even end up changing what kind of market we are in after the break versus before the break had occurred.

Rather we are pushing for a further price drop to the level of $ 6000 per Bitcoin.

These really your words?  Sounds more bearish than your usual unfettered and frequently overly unrealistic bullish optimism.  

However, this is guesswork and it does not change our vision for the long term.

You taking notes from TOAA?  or lambie?  Really, "our"?

Substantively... you are saying "down before up"    hahahahaha... I have heard that before.  Maybe it will happen?  Maybe not.

As an investor, it is important that the average trend moves upwards over the years.

As an investor, I don't think that the trend has to move up, except over the longer term or at the time that the investor is going to need his/her (their... to use the plural) money.. Maybe that is what you are asserting... and further investors surely prefer that their investments are profitable, but some kinds of investments are risky and/or a hedge, so profits are not necessarily guaranteed in a kind of needing way, but it is important in a kind of assessment regarding the extent to which an investment might have been either profitable or otherwise served its hedging purposes (which might not have been profitable, but were still serving insurance purposes).

This is still the case with Bitcoin. The price fluctuations in the short term are irrelevant if you have an investment horizon of 3-5 years. We also see that in 2019, Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset worldwide.

These are agreeable and true... historically bitcoin has always been profitable for anyone who hung onto it for at least 3.5 years (which would be the employment of various variants of buying, accumulating, holding), but of course, history does not provide any kind of guarantee of future profitability or the timeline that will be necessary in future in order for the investment to play out.  Furthermore, if investors attempt to play around with their BTC investment too much, by getting in and out and some other strategizing things like that, they might have ended up losing in what should have been a profitable market, overall.

If we give feedback to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through, we see absolutely nothing to worry about. When Bitcoin reached the unlikely level of $ 1000 in December 2013 and then experienced a huge relapse, it took 162 weeks before we had reached this level again.

Fair enough rendition of history, and again, history does not guarantee future results even though there seem to be a lot of very convincing and solid price modeling that accounts for the history and puts pretty damned good odds on continued future upwards BTC price movements.

In December 2017, about exactly 4 years later, Bitcoin reached the level of nearly $ 20,000. After the decline we have seen through 2018 and the huge price increase in 2019, we are only 100 weeks away in this cycle.

fair enough.

We therefore expect that 2020 will be a positive year for Bitcoin.

1) royal "we" again?  

2) I agree that the odds for overall up in 2020 seem to be greater than the odds for flat or for down, which kind of suggests that we are still in a bull market... even if the price rise might be gradual or it might end up exploding .. hard to know for sure regarding degree, but the odds for up during 2020, or by the end of 2020, seem decent, at least, maybe even better than 50%

Sometime in the coming months, we expect the price to form a new plateau, the next upward trend of which will start.

Though i'm feeling good to be back up 7000$ at this time

Strange way of saying that, which does not really seem to be your writing style.. but whatever... we have had stranger things happening around these parts, sometimes.  

[JayJuanGee]

micgoossens, a very good summary of the past year and a look to the near future. China news has certainly had a positive effect in the short term, but Bitcoin and blockchain are two different things and those who know it was aware that this could not change the trend. Bulls did their best in Q2 and they pumped the price over $10k, but the correction was inevitable, except for those who were expecting a new ATH.

One of the things we can keep track of is the repetitive cycles, so we can speculate on the next one, which, if repeated, could cause a new big bull run. Since we know that halving is the starting point of such a cycle, we can assume that the second half of 2020 will bring some positive changes that could culminate in Q3/Q4 2021.

It would be nice to move up from $7000, but I think we can still be pleased with this year, Bitcoin is still alive and the so-called Bitcoin killer (Libra) is no longer mentioned. All in all, the future doesn't look bad at all, at least for those who look at it in the long run.

Overall, I agree with a lot of your points, Lucius; however, I would quibble a bit with your framing the beginning of a cycle (or the next cycle) in such strict terms. 

Of course, the halvening has a very strong material and real world impact because it immediately, precisely and suddenly cuts the newly issued rewards in half, and this surely is a known event and it is even timed in very precise terms (meaning the block number that it is going to happen).

But even with all that there has already historically proven to be a bit of market action that comes in anticipation to the halvening, and sure a bit of ceremony around the halvening and even some pressures that build and build and build after the halvening.  I would assert that the halvening is largely a ceremonial event rather than an empirical one concerning when the next cycle starts exactly.. because when the cycle actually ended up happening, ends up being one that we can look back historically and proclaim whether or the extent to which the models ended up playing out as anticipated or concluding that we might need to tweak the model somewhat in order to account for how history ended up playing out.

What I am suggesting is that you might end up being correct in terms of how the cycle model ends up playing out; however, there exist a decent amount of real world players who want to attempt to prove the various models wrong and thereby be able to personally (or institutionally) be able to profit from proving the models wrong (even if they only end up being correct on a short term, rather than a longer term basis), which involves BTC price manipulation beyond expectations whether that is manipulating in the downwards direction or manipulating in the upwards direction to the extent that they are able to achieve such manipulation with the tools that are available to them.

[Lucius]

Overall, I agree with a lot of your points, Lucius; however, I would quibble a bit with your framing the beginning of a cycle (or the next cycle) in such strict terms. 

Of course, this is just an assumption that can definitely be wrong for the reasons you make in your post. Given that Bitcoin has only been in existence for 10 years, and we only had 2 halvings, we can only speculate that something will happen again. I agree that big players have the tools to manipulate the crypto market, it's a very modest market in terms of overall value, and every major purchase or sale causes major changes in price.

It may be that some will try to use the majority's belief in repeating the cycle for their own benefit. Probably these same discussions took place after the first halving and the anticipation of the second, and as then, we will have to wait at least 2 more years to see what the effects of 3 halving will be.

[El duderino_]

WE and OUR is just a way of talking I guess, when we speak Bullish about BTC then I think we just talk about the community not? And indeed this summary was actually written at the end of November there for the slightly bearish 6K talk which short term surely was on the table not?

I do prefer to stay above 7K  and start building upward 5-digit Nrs, but we have to follow and don't front run the market cause we just can't predict the when as some people think they can.... but for me I just mainly believe in follow the narrative as how it goes and DCA whenever "we" can 

[El duderino_]

The year 2019 is behind us as well as a full decade. This seems like a good time to look back on this. Ten years ago, Bitcoin was still in its infancy as a monetary experiment by some cryptographers who were working hard from their attic room on developing a 'correct money' protocol.

If we take a moment to reflect on how far we have come to this day, this is certainly admirable.

A new asset class has emerged with today a market capitalization of almost 200 billion.

It is estimated that about 1% of the world's population already owns crypto.

Governments, central banks, multinationals, they are all involved with this technology in one way or another.

What makes it especially interesting for us as investors is the fact that this market is still in its infancy despite the development and infrastructure that have been developed over the past decade.

With house prices at their highest point ever as well as stock indexes, we see Bitcoin as the only asymmetric investment for the coming years. By this we mean that the risk taken is justified by the enormous potential that this market offers

In addition, governments continue to expand their balance sheets, which is bullish for a scarce commodity like Bitcoin that is completely independent of a central entity. For us, Bitcoin is like a kind of insurance against the irresponsible policy of these entities.

In the past year we have seen that Bitcoin has separated itself from the rest of the market. Where Bitcoin has experienced a strong price increase, this was not the case with the large majority of the market. We can explain this because Bitcoin is larger, has more liquidity, can be traded on multiple exchanges, has regularised future contracts and is fully autonomous.

In order to be able to make a prediction for the price in 2020, we look back again to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through. In May 2020, the reward for those who secure the Bitcoin network will halve. This ensures that there is less downward pressure on the price. This occurred earlier in 2012 and in 2016. These years were each closed positively followed by a huge price increase in the following year.

However, we can only base ourselves here on 2 data points from the past, which means that this prediction must be taken with a grain of salt. The past rhymes often but is absolutely no guarantee for the future.

That is why I will also try to provide an overview of our findings and new insights and developments every month in 2020.

First of all, a healthy and happy 2020 is desired for everyone!

[El duderino_]

Still there are many thinking and writing for this year, but where will it bring us, gladly to see it month by month

[El duderino_]

January update


The first month of the new year is already over and Bitcoin and associates have not missed their start.

Where the price of Bitcoin has made a sideways movement in the last 2 months of 2019, we see that the price is now in an upward trend.

From a technical point of view, this price appreciation can be explained by the fact that an outbreak from a sideways price movement is often followed by a significant trend.

Data analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain also showed that long-term holders were accumulating more coins in the months before 2020. It has often been shown that this precedes a sharp rise in the price.

There are also voices that Bitcoin is finally seen as a macroeconomic instrument for absorbing economic shocks. A role that has been fulfilling gold for decades. The appreciation of Bitcoin was accompanied by struggles between Iran and the United States of America as well as the outbreak of the Corona virus. However, this can only be a coincidence and we want to see a stronger correlation before copying this thesis.

In addition to Bitcoin, other cryptoassets also had a strong month. This is an interesting development that we follow closely. If we have sufficient confirmation that this is for a longer duration, we can possibly increase our allocation altcoins in our portfolio.

Despite the significant price increase, we still want to dampen enthusiasm. If we zoom out, we see that the price has been in a downward trend since the end of June. Before we exceed the psychological limit of $ 10,000 per Bitcoin, we are still in this downward trend.

Our expectation was that 2020 would be a positive year for Bitcoin. January is already an indication for this.

However, we can also expect a significant decline after such a sharp rise. As long-term investors, we do not have to take this into account as long as the trend is upward over the years.

[El duderino_]

Februari update

We have closed another month in the new year and therefore we would like to give you an overview of some developments in the Bitcoin landscape as well as possible macro economic insights.

At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin broke the psychological limit of $ 10,000. We have seen a significant decline after this. This is in line with the expectation as we also stated in our previous monthly overview. As far as we are concerned, the downward trend has again been switched into an upward trend. However, this does not mean that we expect a flawless course for 2020. Huge price increases are always accompanied by a significant decline. This does not deter us as an investor with a long-term horizon.

These are very interesting times in the global financial markets. 2020 has only just begun but there are already some obstacles that could influence the price of Bitcoin. The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is spreading outside of China. Where the number of infections in China is declining, we see the reverse movement in the rest of the world. The stock markets have shown their concern about the virus for the first time with a huge fall in prices last week. The fear that sectors such as the aviation sector and the tourism sector will be hit hard has translated into a fall in prices across all financial markets.

The question is whether Bitcoin can benefit from this as a non-correlated asset. There are voices that say that Bitcoin is an ideal way to take refuge when traditional markets are doing poorly. But there are also many indications that Bitcoin as a speculative asset would also suffer if we end up in a global recession. This will tell the time.

The fear of a possible recession has caused central banks worldwide to announce that they will once again inject incentives into the market by lowering interest rates and by "printing" money. This shows that central banks are continuing with the monetary experiment that has been going on for a decade now. This irresponsible attitude is something that we have cited several times as positive for Bitcoin in the long term.

In addition to the Corona virus, the American presidential elections also play an important role in the current economic landscape. On the one hand, we have Trump putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This with the intention of pushing equity markets to new heights. This would greatly help him in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, we have the democrats where the candidates are directly opposite each other. Bernie Sanders is an extremely left-wing progressive socialist and Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg are both center candidates. The expectation is that if Bernie Sanders reaches the primaries, this will have a huge impact on the financial markets. Sanders is against the current capitalist system. This could potentially give a huge boost to the Bitcoin price.

However, all this remains a guesswork and it will be important for us to closely monitor all this to take any action. The only thing we can say with certainty is that we have a very interesting year ahead.

[exstasie]

The stock markets have shown their concern about the virus for the first time with a huge fall in prices last week. The fear that sectors such as the aviation sector and the tourism sector will be hit hard has translated into a fall in prices across all financial markets.

The question is whether Bitcoin can benefit from this as a non-correlated asset. There are voices that say that Bitcoin is an ideal way to take refuge when traditional markets are doing poorly. But there are also many indications that Bitcoin as a speculative asset would also suffer if we end up in a global recession. This will tell the time.

It has monetary characteristics like gold, but let's be honest. It's a decade old technology. There's no indication that society will treat it like gold in a global recession.

On top of that, we should note that gold doesn't unequivocally rise during recessions. During the 2008 crisis, it crashed ~35%. I was not surprised to see gold dump 7.5% last week during all the craziness. More or less, everything will suffer during a recession.

Bernie Sanders is an extremely left-wing progressive socialist and Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg are both center candidates. The expectation is that if Bernie Sanders reaches the primaries, this will have a huge impact on the financial markets. Sanders is against the current capitalist system. This could potentially give a huge boost to the Bitcoin price.

I would say Sanders is more centrist than that, but the primary season tends to emphasize very partisan politics. Markets should respond positively to a Biden primary victory. A Sanders victory, less so.

[El duderino_]

Thx for the valuable insight, much appreciated!!!

[El duderino_]

March update

The first quarter of 2020 has ended and something tells us that this quarter will be in our memories for a long time.

We already mentioned in our monthly overview of February that these are interesting times in the global financial markets.

This turned out to be an understatement. We have seen the world go into lockdown, borders are closed and the economy is flat.

The Corona virus will probably go down in history as the greatest crisis of our generation. This is mainly because it goes a lot further than the virus alone. The virus has proven to be the catalyst for the end of the stock bull market that started after the 2008 financial crisis.

With a financial system that is on the slope, artificially maintained by central banks worldwide, we have come to the point for which Bitcoin originated.

Bitcoin was invented in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis as an alternative to the current system. A system that has grown disproportionately over the past 10 years. We see government deficits worldwide, companies with a huge debt burden, negative interest rates, a huge increase in the money supply and so on. Bitcoin offers an alternative to this as a non-sovereign, global, censorship-resistant, unchanging, decentralized and scarce hoarding medium.

Last month, we asked ourselves how Bitcoin would respond to the massive price drop in traditional financial markets. We received an unambiguous answer to this. Bitcoin had one of its biggest price drops ever at 24 hours on March 12. On some trading platforms, the bottom price even reached $ 3,600. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $ 7100. So we saw a huge crash followed by a huge weather collision.

It has thus emerged that Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset will not escape the flight to cash in the short term during a crash in the markets worldwide. Even gold, which has been used as a potting medium for millennia, has seen a significant revival.

Looking back at the crisis in 2008, we saw the same pattern. Precious metals declined early in the crisis, followed by a massive price hike that brought gold and silver to their all-time high. We expect a similar pattern. And we are convinced that Bitcoin, seen as the digital gold, can take over part of that market.

We follow all developments closely, but we would like to emphasize that your health and care for loved ones is of primary importance in the near future!