My speculation games summed up.. ANY ideas?? For something NEW??

[El duderino_]

Not for sure but could always happen at random...

So I summed up my previous games THOUGH!!! I made some more games, like 2 or 3 I cannot remember exactly, those games where released in the WO thread itself cause I didn't know there where any more threads etc at that point (yeah total n00b at that point).

So if anyone can find those pages where those games started "thats merit worthy for completing this thread and piece of history" imho...
I think the game involved guessing the date when we break ATH...

below are those I could find if I did correctly 



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4530624.msg40798908#msg40798908

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4710399.msg42528332#msg42528332
(2 games in this one game, one of them ended this year, the game started in 2018) 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5056734.msg47233754#msg47233754

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.msg48595585#msg48595585

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5096275.msg49190484#msg49190484

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5122750.msg50241210#msg50241210

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5160304.msg51665106#msg51665106

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.msg53505850#msg53505850

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337266.msg57003378#msg57003378


Now what I wanted to do is showing all the games and how they worked before and let everyone come with various of ideas for a new game later this year (probably) ...

The better the idea the better the chance it happens.

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

[El duderino_]

Reserved

[LoyceV]

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

That's only good if it's earned Merit, not airdropped Merit. And even better if you'd exclude the users who got there by Merit abuse.

It would also be good if you can make a deal with "upper management" to keep your thread in Speculation.

For something NEW??

When 100k? Guess the date?

[vapourminer]

how about guessing what the biggest daily swing in price in a given time period is.  up/down/either way

i know, boring but im not very imaginative.

definitely want a high(ish) merit level for entry. not sure what number to use though.

edit: what loycev said.. earned merits not airdropped is a good idea.

[El duderino_]

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

That's only good if it's earned Merit, not airdropped Merit. And even better if you'd exclude the users who got there by Merit abuse.

It would also be good if you can make a deal with "upper management" to keep your thread in Speculation.

For something NEW??

When 100k? Guess the date?

Yeah true but it’s hard to see which are coming from merit abuse, not? Earned is more easy .... but I would be in for both those rules...

*indeed pre starting I will ask a permission to keep it in speculation...

[LoyceV]

Yeah true but it’s hard to see which are coming from merit abuse, not? Earned is more easy .... but I would be in for both those rules...

In some cases it's pretty obvious, like this one.
Here's an example of what I consider Merit abuse:

Bitcointalk Username:  Green547

You have received suspiciously large amounts of Merit for posts that aren't worth it. I don't count that as "earned" Merit. Ending up on exactly enough Merit to become a Full Member an hour before applying doesn't help your case. Rejected.

But if you do that, you'll get complaints

[El duderino_]

Yeah true but it’s hard to see which are coming from merit abuse, not? Earned is more easy .... but I would be in for both those rules...

In some cases it's pretty obvious, like this one.
Here's an example of what I consider Merit abuse:

Bitcointalk Username:  Green547

You have received suspiciously large amounts of Merit for posts that aren't worth it. I don't count that as "earned" Merit. Ending up on exactly enough Merit to become a Full Member an hour before applying doesn't help your case. Rejected.

But if you do that, you'll get complaints

When the game comes, I'll ask you for a little assistance in the merit issue 

how about guessing what the biggest daily swing in price in a given time period is.  up/down/either way

i know, boring but im not very imaginative.

definitely want a high(ish) merit level for entry. not sure what number to use though.

edit: what loycev said.. earned merits not airdropped is a good idea.

Will surely do something next time, excluding exsatasie kind of things and just some multiple one person entries etc... making the field a bit smaller ... Searching more for real contributing members and hopefully real bitcoin'ers

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[SFR10]

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

In addition to what LoyceV mentioned ^{[earned Merit]}, I'd suggest going a step further and only allow users to participate if they've earned 25% of the required merit ^[earned] within the past two months ^{[smaller circle]}.
In regards to something new, how about allowing certain types of participants to change their predictions for a change...

e.g.

• Deadline is in 3 months > Upon reaching the halfway mark ^{[one and a half months]}, allow those users with "close predictions ^{[5k up/down of its value on that moment]}" to change their predictions for one last time ^{[it could lead to someone winning/losing it]}.

[LoyceV]

I'll ask you for a little assistance in the merit issue  

I'd gladly be the bad guy But that gives me a conflict of interest: having less participants increases my own odds. And I don't like conflicts of interest

only allow users to participate if they've earned 25% of the required merit ^[earned] within the past two months ^{[smaller circle]}

Just for fun: maybe require a certain number of Merit to be earned in the WO-thread (before the game started).

[vapourminer]

I'll ask you for a little assistance in the merit issue 

I'd gladly be the bad guy But that gives me a conflict of interest: having less participants increases my own odds. And I don't like conflicts of interest

yeah whoever is the "merit abuse gatekeeper" should not be in the game imo too.

Just for fun: maybe require a certain number of Merit to be earned in the WO-thread (before the game started).

but then everyone will flood the WO thread with shitposts.

oh wait...

[LoyceV]

Just for fun: maybe require a certain number of Merit to be earned in the WO-thread (before the game started).

but then everyone will flood the WO thread with shitposts.

Good point, let's raise the stakes a bit: a certain number of Merit earned outside the WO-thread.

[hugeblack]

I am not a follower of these challenges, but I prefer that the challenge contains some effort, such as drawing a price chart and the closest price model matching that scheme will get a profit.
And if the challenge is limited to a specific category (constraints by Merits), it must be accompanied by some technical analysis.

As for the challenges that do not require effort, I can think of the following:
Any block number/miner will mine Bitcoin when the price reaches 100k.
Guess how much fluctuation can occur in a week.
What event could make the price rise 40%?
Guess who is the next richest to add Bitcoin to his account.

[El duderino_]

I'll ask you for a little assistance in the merit issue  

I'd gladly be the bad guy But that gives me a conflict of interest: having less participants increases my own odds. And I don't like conflicts of interest

only allow users to participate if they've earned 25% of the required merit ^[earned] within the past two months ^{[smaller circle]}

Just for fun: maybe require a certain number of Merit to be earned in the WO-thread (before the game started).

*LoL, but just when a rule involving merit is issued, follow up that I don't make mistakes 

*That would spam the WO maybe with some dumb posts etc Not? Don't think everyone there will appreciate such thing... 

[malevolent]

Now what I wanted to do is showing all the games and how they worked before and let everyone come with various of ideas for a new game later this year (probably) ...

The better the idea the better the chance it happens.

You could allow for more time to place bets, say, a month or more, but give some extra points for earlier bets.

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

Merit or merit earned?

[El duderino_]

Now what I wanted to do is showing all the games and how they worked before and let everyone come with various of ideas for a new game later this year (probably) ...

The better the idea the better the chance it happens.

You could allow for more time to place bets, say, a month or more, but give some extra points for earlier bets.

Probaly next game will be required of having higher merit ranks 100 or 200, good or not?

Merit or merit earned?

Maybe 2weeks instead of one, but it also depends on the game, last one was for June 21, so I had to make a short term time period....

Merit is a question to you all... most people are in for earned merit, some thinking of a minimum of earned merit in the last X period etc ....

Maybe a higher earned merit stat should work, I wanna try making the field a bit smaller and mostly with people really trying and excluding multiple account usage etc

Making it as honest as possible

[LoyceV]

Maybe a higher earned merit stat should work, I wanna try making the field a bit smaller and mostly with people really trying and excluding multiple account usage etc

Here's last week's list of all users who ever received (I'm not saying they "earned" it) Merit (excluding the Merit airdrop).
If you start at the top and scroll down, how far do you get before you don't recognize most of the usernames?

[El duderino_]

Maybe a higher earned merit stat should work, I wanna try making the field a bit smaller and mostly with people really trying and excluding multiple account usage etc

Here's last week's list of all users who ever received (I'm not saying they "earned" it) Merit (excluding the Merit airdrop).
If you start at the top and scroll down, how far do you get before you don't recognize most of the usernames?

That scrolling speak volumes .... in need for changes!