Two Realistic Moves in Play

[ImThour]

EDIT: Removed.
Bad execution of EW Theory, I don't want anyone to consider me a bull/bear.
Cheers.

[Charles-Tim]

- Fall back Towards Previous Resistance Trendline at $6k

With the decreasing volatility, this would not be possible.

The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation
Where is the current absolute bottom of Bitcoin?

If the volatility is reducing, then check what I calculated here using lowest bitcoin price and highest bitcoin price in 2013, 2017 and 2021. I believe the price of bitcoin can not fall below $12000, and if I am sentimental about it, I will still prefer to choose the price of bitcoin to not fall below $20000, even if falled below, it will not be long before it will rise back.

Let us compare 2013 bull run to 2017 bull run
1147÷ 177 = 6.48
19343 ÷ 3239 = 5.97x
(6.48 - 5.97 ÷ 2) + 5.97 = 5.715

Comparing it with the 2021 all-time-high
69000 ÷ 5.715 = 12073 in USD.

I should have predicted $12073 but adoption could probably change this, institutions are now more into Bitcoin investment. Also very possible as Bitcoin adoption increases, the volatility will be reducing.

If I will have to be sentimental about this, I will go for $20000, that Bitcoin price will not fall below $20000. If it falls below to like $19800, this could trigger bull run.

[ImThour]

- Fall back Towards Previous Resistance Trendline at $6k

With the decreasing volatility, this would not be possible.

The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation
Where is the current absolute bottom of Bitcoin?

If the volatility is reducing, then check what I calculated here using lowest bitcoin price and highest bitcoin price in 2013, 2017 and 2021. I believe the price of bitcoin can not fall below $12000, and if I am sentimental about it, I will still prefer to choose the price of bitcoin to not fall below $20000, even if falled below, it will not be long before it will rise back.

Let us compare 2013 bull run to 2017 bull run
1147÷ 177 = 6.48
19343 ÷ 3239 = 5.97x
(6.48 - 5.97 ÷ 2) + 5.97 = 5.715

Comparing it with the 2021 all-time-high
69000 ÷ 5.715 = 12073 in USD.

I should have predicted $12073 but adoption could probably change this, institutions are now more into Bitcoin investment. Also very possible as Bitcoin adoption increases, the volatility will be reducing.

If I will have to be sentimental about this, I will go for $20000, that Bitcoin price will not fall below $20000. If it falls below to like $19800, this could trigger bull run.

Thanks for your input. So, according to you we will switch onto the Scenario 1.
Let's see how it plays

[tokeweed]

Is that a monthly chart?  Try looking at the weeklies.  I don’t use trend lines, just support and resistance levels buy looking at where the bounces are and where there’s resistance.  

Anyway, around 30k is the next support which I think is solid btw and I don’t think price goes below that.  But since anything could happen the next one where there’s a little bit of support is 16k which could easily break down.  The next one is...  *gulp* ... around 10k.  But I couldn’t imagine it going back down there.  No way...  The market won’t allow it...  Somebody will catch the falling knife.  Unless Saylor fakes cancer and is nowhere to be seen while BTC is selling down hard.  

[ImThour]

Is that a monthly chart?  Try looking at the weeklies.  I don’t use trend lines, just support and resistance levels buy looking at where the bounces are and where there’s resistance. 

Anyway, around 30k is the next support which I think is solid btw and I don’t think price goes below that.  But since anything could happen the next one where there’s a little bit of support is 16k which could easily break down.  The next one is...  *gulp* ... around 10k.  But I couldn’t imagine it going back down there.  No way...  The market won’t allow it...  Somebody will catch the falling knife.  Unless Saylor fakes cancer and is nowhere to be seen while BTC is selling down hard. 

IDK why but I found it very funny lmao. About the chart, yes it's a monthly one.
Also, Weekly support is Indeed 30k which I see can break down if US Market keeps crashing.

Let's see how it plays out

[pooya87]

Two Realistic Scenarios for BTC
1.
- Retest Support Trendline at $20k
2.
- Retest Support Trendline at $20k

I only see one scenario here and it is not realistic at all.
You are essentially saying that the only way ahead of bitcoin is yet another BIG crash after it just had a BIG crash while ignoring the fact that there is strong resistance at $30k!

It also contradicts your bold statement since you are claiming this is a massive bear market and maybe you should start by explaining why you think bitcoin is going to continue crashing for a total of 70%?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Bubble is a formation in which price does not test trend lines often. Price creates new trend lines one after another because it continously accelerate untill in break. And bitcoin is an asset that moves from one bubble to another. Thats why those are not two realistic moves. The green one is possible but as a bear scenario IF bull run is over and we gonna be bleeding for next few years. The red scenario is less possible than a sudden turnover and push to 200k since bitcoin adoption/fundamentials are much stronger than in 2018, when we last seen 6k.

How is 200k still possible? We can be in massive bull flag which is not very likely scenario but as not likely as dump to 6k only because of archaic trend line.



This trend line that gives us target of 6k$ ... it gives this target only if we dump 80% in 1 month. Which did not even happen after 2017 bubble burst. Chart took moree than a year to dump 80% and it was from the top of 100x rally not after a 50% dump after a 10x rally. And its worth to add that volatility decreased. Why 1 month? Because this trend line is quite agressive and if we are about to hit it after 2 years of bear market ... it will not be 6k but $3.5k.



How about testing this trend line with price target of 80$?


We need to hurry up because price target is about to turn negative.

And even if we are about to test your trend lines. Why you think it will be achived via massive dump istead of 2 bounces from 30k support. something like that:



Just like in 2018, when we were bouncing from 6k support for a year before breakout and capitulation to 3.5k

[tokeweed]

Is that a monthly chart?  Try looking at the weeklies.  I don’t use trend lines, just support and resistance levels buy looking at where the bounces are and where there’s resistance.  

Anyway, around 30k is the next support which I think is solid btw and I don’t think price goes below that.  But since anything could happen the next one where there’s a little bit of support is 16k which could easily break down.  The next one is...  *gulp* ... around 10k.  But I couldn’t imagine it going back down there.  No way...  The market won’t allow it...  Somebody will catch the falling knife.  Unless Saylor fakes cancer and is nowhere to be seen while BTC is selling down hard.  

IDK why but I found it very funny lmao. About the chart, yes it's a monthly one.
Also, Weekly support is Indeed 30k which I see can break down if US Market keeps crashing.

Let's see how it plays out

Ah yeah...  If US markets start selling down hard and mark the end of the bull market then yeah, it will drag everything down with it including crypto.  But I’m still hopeful the market has something left before full on bear mode.  I think BTC could still bounce to around 45k then go down and hopefully form a higher low before resuming to a nice trend back up.  If not, it’s either we down below 30k or go sideways prolly between 30k and 40k for a while.  Dunno.  That’s just how I feel like it’s going to happen from watching it all these years.

[el kaka22]

One way or another it keeps showing that 20k line should be retested.

However, I do not believe that we would be going that low, we are going to definitely break out way before that happens. I just feel like 20k is not something we could get down anymore, that was once upon a time and we are not going to get there.

Veterans and early bird would remember, in 2014 our ATH was around 1.4k, and that was broken during 2017 peak and we reached ATH of 20k during that time, we never went to 1.4k ever again, the lowest was around 3k or so, and never below the previous ath price.

So, the same probably stands here, we were at 20k ATH for a while, then we broke out, and now we will probably never see those levels ever again.

[adaseb]

I don’t think $34K was the low but I also don’t think $20K will be the low. And I also don’t think $30K will be the low. Most likely we will bottom somewhere in $25K area.

One reason is that too many people want to buy at $30K or $20K. Most will buy at $30K and have a stop loss at $28K. And when it gets trigggered it’ll go down to like $25K or so.

At $25K nobody will buy because they think $20K will most likely get tested and it’ll never go there. Maybe even $22-25K but I don’t think it will touch $20K.

[pooya87]

If US markets start selling down hard and mark the end of the bull market then yeah, it will drag everything down with it including crypto.

I disagree, not just because there has never been any relationship between the markets in the past 13 years but also because when US markets tank people will start pulling their money out of US markets but they won't put that money under their mattress, instead they will look for an alternative place to put it and bitcoin is an excellent option.
In other words it is a strong possibility that we see a big bitcoin bull run when the US markets tank.

[mk4]

*snip*

..instead they will look for an alternative place to put it and bitcoin is an excellent option.
In other words it is a strong possibility that we see a big bitcoin bull run when the US markets tank.

Yea, If that would actually happen then that'd be GREAT(adoption wise, and for my pockets as well, obviously), but that's wishful thinking in my opinion. Highly unlikely for people to suddenly see Bitcoin as something that's not a scam just because the stock market crashes.

[poldanmig]

If US markets start selling down hard and mark the end of the bull market then yeah, it will drag everything down with it including crypto.

I disagree, not just because there has never been any relationship between the markets in the past 13 years but also because when US markets tank people will start pulling their money out of US markets but they won't put that money under their mattress, instead they will look for an alternative place to put it and bitcoin is an excellent option.
In other words it is a strong possibility that we see a big bitcoin bull run when the US markets tank.

Conditions could get worse and supply chain bottlenecks that are still happening and allow to suppress the growth of the american economy to be slower and the impact will make many people try to save their money due to the weakening american market, now there may be only two options for them to overcome the problem, namely by saving their money or choosing to invest in bitcoin which is relatively likely to be profitable for them.

[pooya87]

Yea, If that would actually happen then that'd be GREAT(adoption wise, and for my pockets as well, obviously), but that's wishful thinking in my opinion. Highly unlikely for people to suddenly see Bitcoin as something that's not a scam just because the stock market crashes.

Well, if we are talking about idiots then all it takes is a couple of days of stock market crashing and bitcoin price rising even a little for the sheeple who believed the "scam" story to start believing the "moon" story and jump on board.
In this scenario we are talking about a major crash not a small 5% drop. Maybe a big recession like 2008 that led to bitcoin creation. After all bitcoin went up 2000% during the pandemic when economy was shit.

[Ararbermas]

Anyway, around 30k is the next support which I think is solid btw and I don’t think price goes below that.  But since anything could happen the next one where there’s a little bit of support is 16k which could easily break down.  The next one is...  *gulp* ... around 10k.  But I couldn’t imagine it going back down there.  No way...  The market won’t allow it...  Somebody will catch the falling knife.  Unless Saylor fakes cancer and is nowhere to be seen while BTC is selling down hard.  

yeah it's too hard to imagine how is that possible to happen wherein despite there's still a lot of buyers at the very dip level reason we see some consolidation. And there's no way big investors will let the market very down because it's a big loss for them as well especially after all that they keep adding more at the dips so perhaps they will make a way to bring the market up again.