The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation

[Charles-Tim]

Introduction
Bitcoin in history has halved two times, the first was in November, 2012 and the second was in July, 2016. In 2012 (the first halving), bitcoin rose from $11 to over $1000, which is cleared that halving is the main cause of this price increase. It is also altered by demand but the price increase start not long from the halving day when people did not yet anticipate for halving because it was the first one. So, the effect of retail investors will not be much.
Later, the price of bitcoin trended down to below $250, this was maintained before the 2016 halving. After the second halving, the bitcoin price rose to around $700 and was fluctuating around this price for months before the price just started to increase and rich the all time high of $19,665.36 on December 17, 2017.

Before the first halving in 2012, the mining reward was 50 btc and this greatly caused 10,500,000 btc to be mine before the first mining. The supply was too much and the price was not really increasing because of this, but, though increased because of demand for btc.
After the first halving in 2012, the mining reward decreased to 25 btc.
And after the 2016 halving, there were only 5,250,000 btc remaining to be mined. The mining reward decreased to 12.5
Before the next halving in this year in May, 2020, only 2,625,000 btc will be remaind to be mined.


First halving, 2012
Initial price: $11
Highest prices:  around 1100
That means it increased 100x


Second halving, 2016
Initial price: around and below $700
Highest price: all time all of $19,665.36
That means it increased over 33x


The 2012 halving effect and the less demand compared to 2016/2017 demand
We should noticed something, that the price increase more in 2012 halving than in 2016 halving in percentage but there were more demand after 2016 halving.

What could cause this?
Is it cause by whales manipulation or retail investors?
It is cause by the halving effect?
Two main facrors can cause the price of bitcoin to increase There could be other factors but the two main factors are halving effect and increased demand.

This is my opinion. In 2012, people did not invest on bitcoin more like after 2016 halving. This is because most people did not know what effect halving can cause and also the people that know about bitcoin as at 2012 were not much like 2016 to 2017. So, the bitcoin halving will have effect than people that invested on bitcoin, anticipating for halving. So there is no much increase in bitcoin market cap at this time if compared to 2016-2017.

2016 halving, the lone whale and the retail invesrors
Although, halving effect has effect and increase the price during the great bull run in 2016/2017 because the supply that were cut. But, in relation to the market cap, it is clear that investors invested greatly. So, the halving effect was effective but not effective like the 2012 halving. The price increase was greatly caused by investors.

The lone whale/whale manipulations
It was found in a research that around half of the bitcoin valuation around March 2017 to March 2018 was cause by trades between a stable currency (tether) and bitcoin. The trades were claimed to be cause by a single individual. Even if not a single person that caused it, it is evident that there are whales involved in the manipulations.

The retail investors
As said above that whales manipulation accounted for almost half but not all of the investment capital. Also, retail investors like us that hold and that trade for bitcoin also increase the market cap and this increase the price of bitcoin.
As said above, the price of btc increased in the second halving more because of the whales and people that invested on bitcoin. Not like 2012 halving that is grestly invmcreased by halving.

So, now, what can be the fate of bitcoin valuation in 2020.
As I explained above, we know that there are only 21 million btc, before the next halving in May, 2020, only 2,625,000 btc will be left and this has been linked above that the more the amount to be minded is reducing, the less will be the effect of halving. And I used the 2012 and 2016 having to explain.

one senior cryptocurrency industry executive says in this year that unforseen event will make cryptocurrencies  like bitcoin to rich all time high. Bitcoin is the most valuable cryptocurrency and we know they are talking mostly about it.

So, What can be the unforseen event?
In my opinion. The halving effect itself can not increase the price significantly but mildly. The whales and the retail investors will be the one to pump money into bitcoin investment. Whales will manipulate and retail investors will also invest. Lastly, do not forget about those that fomo (fear of missing out), they will greatly invest on bitcoin and the price of bitcoin will increase. Let us expect this effect to begin in April, a month before bitcoin will halve.
This is just my opinion, we do not know actually if the price will increase but with my analyses, I am 90% certain that the price of bitcoin will increase in 2020 and the increase may still continue till a certain month in 2021.

Conclusion
Although, 2012/2013 bitcoin bull run was greatly cause by bitcoin halving but the effect of this on bitcoin price is drastically reducing as nearly all bitcoin are mined. But the whales manipulations and retail investor capitals is replacing the halving effect which is seen as the indirect halving effect to increase bitcoin price in 2020. So, as of this year, 2020, bitcoin bull run will occur and will last till a certain month in 2021.


These links are very helpful while writing this articles

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/02/08/bitcoin-smashes-through-10000-as-bull-run-suddenly-acceleratesheres-why/#2b8a6e5636de
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/02/09/this-bitcoin-bull-run-is-extremely-different-to-2017s-epic-rally/#7c5a6f7e49c1
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2019/11/04/a-single-cryptocurrency-whale-caused-bitcoins-2017-bull-run-research-claims/


You may find these helpful
https://coinswitch.co/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-2020-2025-latest-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-news-update
https://www.bitdegree.org/tutorials/bitcoin-price-prediction-2020/
https://coinrivet.com/how-profitable-will-bitcoin-be-in-2020/

[1714957639]

1714957639

[minairia3]

Let us expect this effect to begin in April, a month before bitcoin will halve.
This is just my opinion, we do not know actually if the price will increase but with my analyses, I am 90% certain that the price of bitcoin will increase in 2020 and the increase may still continue till a certain month in 2021.

Based from your explanation, it could somehow be true and statistics never lie. But of course the price now currently is pushing down. Well of course factors of these are very broad such as the corona virus which really affect the market. Im not saying your prediction is vague but you did some point on what tou explained. But remember, the word Volatile it can trigger something we really dont expect.

As far as early January this year, the market is boosted with such surge and fomoing due to halving but unexpected event came in and we are now experiencing a continuous downfall. April is near and Im not optimistic of even breaking 10k this month due to massive issues that were facing set aside those technical analyst that has become professional during bearish sentiment. They gotta say new prediction for this, Im sure.

[bitmover]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

[Charles-Tim]

Let us expect this effect to begin in April, a month before bitcoin will halve.
This is just my opinion, we do not know actually if the price will increase but with my analyses, I am 90% certain that the price of bitcoin will increase in 2020 and the increase may still continue till a certain month in 2021.

Based from your explanation, it could somehow be true and statistics never lie. But of course the price now currently is pushing down. Well of course factors of these are very broad such as the corona virus which really affect the market. Im not saying your prediction is vague but you did some point on what tou explained. But remember, the word Volatile it can trigger something we really dont expect.

As far as early January this year, the market is boosted with such surge and fomoing due to halving but unexpected event came in and we are now experiencing a continuous downfall. April is near and Im not optimistic of even breaking 10k this month due to massive issues that were facing set aside those technical analyst that has become professional during bearish sentiment. They gotta say new prediction for this, Im sure.

You are right from your point. But from my explanation, the halving effect, whales manipulations and retail investors anticipation investment capital will make the price to rise. I also said that this effect would likely begin in April, a month to halving as it occurred in 2016 halving. I mean a month to halving the price starts to increase.

In 2012, the price rose to $1100 but later declined to $700. But, 2016 halving resulted in a bull market. So, regardless of what is going on now, the whales will manipulate, investors will invest and the price will increase. Later, people that fomo will invest too to increase the price future till a certain month in 2021.

This is just a prediction but reasons make us positive to invest.

[Charles-Tim]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

You are right about the corona virus crises. Crypto, stock, crude oil and many other markets were affected. And the main reason linked to the declination is the corona virus but there will be other reasons too not yet said.

On January 2, 2020, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies price started to increase but later reduced by 6% as the virus start to infection people in China. But, bitcoin later increased to $10,500 from a price above $8000 but below $9000 st the time. The virus spread but the cryptocurrencies  were later increasing. But later at the end of February till this time, the crypto market has been suffering losses till now. Even, if whale also manipulate around this time, converting bitcoin to stable coin, and good trades that have noticed the effect also converting to a stable coins, just in preparation for halving. This can be possible too.

It is linked to corona virus but analysts can not be 100% correct and are very wrong at times in price prediction.
 

[kryptqnick]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

On the other hand, perhaps if things get too bad, it will lead to Bitcoin rising as a safe heaven. I don't think that COVID-19 can be the primary cause of the world economic crisis, even if we take into account its serious impact. However, it can be the trigger of the economic crisis that was bound to happen somewhere around 2020 anyway. So if things get bad, it's natural to expect that Bitcoin will move down along with everything else. However, as it actually doesn't depend on what's going on with the world economy because of being decentralized and limited in supply, it might be something in which people start pouring their investments to save them, and it can totally work.

[BrewMaster]

there are a couple of thing here that i can not agree with.
first of all halving has never been the reason for any of the rises that were cited here. all halving event itself does is a short term hype that has always faded away just as fast as it came along. the main reason for all the rises has always been adoption and nothing else. if price goes up in a certain period of time compared to others that means the adoption in that period of time has been bigger. and price went up a lot more during second halving compared to the first one exactly because of this reason and to see that you should compare the bigger pictures not just zoomed in versions!

secondly i am convinced that currently a lot of effort is going into keeping bitcoin price down. to the point that this may be the new version of the war against bitcoin from all those who have been feeling petrifyingly threatened by bitcoin for whatever reason!

imagine what would the headlines looked liked if they said "bitcoin is rising while the stock market crashes badly". enough said....

[Charles-Tim]

there are a couple of thing here that i can not agree with.
first of all halving has never been the reason for any of the rises that were cited here. all halving event itself does is a short term hype that has always faded away just as fast as it came along. the main reason for all the rises has always been adoption and nothing else. if price goes up in a certain period of time compared to others that means the adoption in that period of time has been bigger. and price went up a lot more during second halving compared to the first one exactly because of this reason and to see that you should compare the bigger pictures not just zoomed in versions!

secondly i am convinced that currently a lot of effort is going into keeping bitcoin price down. to the point that this may be the new version of the war against bitcoin from all those who have been feeling petrifyingly threatened by bitcoin for whatever reason!

imagine what would the headlines looked liked if they said "bitcoin is rising while the stock market crashes badly". enough said....

No, the price increase in the first halving than the second halving.

The initial price before 2012 halving was $11 and increased to over $1100
That is 100x increase.

Before 2016 halving, the bicoin price was around $700 and increase to $19,665.36
That is 33x increase.

No only adoption increase the price in 2012 to 2013, halving significanly increase the price but the effect of halving decrease in 2016/2017 price increase in which adoption really helped to increase the price as investors increase in number.

And I also said in the write up that the main reason the bull price increase can be effective this time is because of whales manipulation and investors that will invest on bitcoin.

So, we are still on the same page.


If you check the coinmarketcap link

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Check the market cap

You will see that the market cap of bitcoin is not up to $6 billion in certain times in 2016

In 2013, the market cap was not up to $4 billion dollars which shows that halving effect is the real cause if the price increase in 2012 halving. Unlike 2016/2017 bull run that was mostly cause by increased rate of investment of bitcoin by investors. Halving too has its but not like the previous halving.

So, halving effect is diminishing and investment effect is the what we can hope in to significantly increase bitcoin price. All is said in my write up above.

[Mpamaegbu]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

Yeah, there is a kind of mixed feeling on the expectant 2020 Bitcoin halving. For me, I see the situation like the August 2017 Bitcoin fork. The tension was palpable and the market almost froze before the appointed time. But the whole thing changed positively as soon as the fork was over and Bitcoin became volatile once again and went into an ATH. I expect such to play out during this halving.

[Sirait]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

we can only speculate for now because the condition of the world economy is uncertain right now

but as long as we pay attention this Bitcoin is decentralized and not influenced by the outside world such as politics and crises. indeed at this time, the entire investment market such as stocks and commodities are crashing because of the Corona issue but I think that such a thing will not affect Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

the halving rise is only the rise that happens about 1-2 months prior to halving. the rest is the natural rises due to adoption. and the fact that we don't see a gigantic rise in that short period of time and instead see a big rise is because market is maturing more and as the order books become more packed with orders it becomes increasingly difficult to jump up (or similarly to crash down).

for example the 2012 rise you are talking about was from $2.2 to $15 but it was followed immediately by a dump to $2.5 which is pretty much where it started from. why? because it was easy to manipulate and also the order book thinness!
fast forward to next halving, the rise was from $420 to $778 and then it dropped back down to $580.
as a result comparison of the two halvings are like this:
1st in 2012: rise= 581% drop= -83%
2nd in 2016: rise= 85% drop= -25%
i don't know about this but i call this market maturity as it becomes harder and now impossible to pump and dump bitcoin. that means we should see a much more reasonable rise for this halving and finish it up with a logical small correction. and then get back on track of the natural rise like always.

[davis196]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on.

We don't know how will bitcoin react

, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

Bitcoin already reacted.The BTC price went down from 10K USD to 8K USD.If the crisis continues,the price will go down,but we shouldn't care about that.The most important question is what will happen after the coronarecession is gone and the prices recover.Will they recover slowly or rapidly?
The "What will happen with the BTC price after halving?" question has been discussed thousands of times on the forum for the past several years.
Your conclusions aren't very different from the conclusions of many forum members before you.There's nothing new and original in your research.

[Reatim]

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

just the following day and that is now,we go down harder and falling more than 20% so means what you said comes reality mate and this is another different halving experience from the past.

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

and another correct word because now down trend starts and waiting for the upward Movement.


again lets use this to make another investing pricing $5000 level now,chance to buy more.

[DeathAngel]

The bitcoin price will definitely rise as we approach the halving but because of this virus we might only get back to $9,000 or something. If the virus hadn’t happened then it would have gone higher.

This time next year though we could see a new ATH & all this nonsense will be forgotten. 

[Mulann2]

Some people will see this dump as devastating because of their investment others will see it as blessing in disguise, if you look at the present condition of the market you would be discourage but if you already understand how the market work, then this is an opportunity to buy good coin at cheap price, because after every dump, the price definitely comes back up, and going by what the above post is saying about btc statistics, then hopefully we can see a price spike in the upcoming months.
No need to panic sell.

[dothebeats]

With the market data that we currently have on all the halvings that passed, it's surprising that people still believe that price appreciation happens during and shortly after the halving, when in fact those price actions happen before and long after the halving itself. The current situation of bitcoin is also affected by a global pandemic, with people pulling out aome of their investments to use for supplies and/or whatnot. We already had a nice increase a few weeks ago, and may not see one like that again for a few months. Why the market behaves as such, we don't know, but the fact is already there: the halving only generates hype but fails to generate price momentum.

[joniboini]

Why the market behaves as such, we don't know, but the fact is already there: the halving only generates hype but fails to generate price momentum.

The Covid-19, how governments react to it, the isolation and other fundamental factors that affect the whole market are certainly related to the recent nosedive. People are afraid and anxious, so any 'experimental' asset is going to get ditched and they turn into a more trusted investment like gold.

But in times like this, you can find opportunity to buy something cheap. If you catch the bottom then you'll be in profits. Hopefully, we'll be lucky.

[rdluffy]

With the market data that we currently have on all the halvings that passed, it's surprising that people still believe that price appreciation happens during and shortly after the halving, when in fact those price actions happen before and long after the halving itself. The current situation of bitcoin is also affected by a global pandemic, with people pulling out aome of their investments to use for supplies and/or whatnot. We already had a nice increase a few weeks ago, and may not see one like that again for a few months. Why the market behaves as such, we don't know, but the fact is already there: the halving only generates hype but fails to generate price momentum.

I believe that you're right, but I thought that with this coming halving the price would goes up because everyone is optmistic and slowly buying day by day, but after this crash, the only hope here is for the long term, we can forget the price rising due to the halving, unfortunately we'll miss this opportunity

[Charles-Tim]

With the market data that we currently have on all the halvings that passed, it's surprising that people still believe that price appreciation happens during and shortly after the halving, when in fact those price actions happen before and long after the halving itself. The current situation of bitcoin is also affected by a global pandemic, with people pulling out aome of their investments to use for supplies and/or whatnot. We already had a nice increase a few weeks ago, and may not see one like that again for a few months. Why the market behaves as such, we don't know, but the fact is already there: the halving only generates hype but fails to generate price momentum.

As for the short rise in price you mentioned, it only happened in 2012 halving. In 2016 halving, the price rose but not shortly at all. 2012 halving cause the sharp rise while whales and investors capital caused the 2016 price rise. Also, this year prices rise can only be caused by whales and investors. Halving is now only having indirect effect.

As for the prices momentum, halving has never generated only hype alone before, it also generate price rise momentum. We do not know what this year halving hold though, but buying cryptocurrencies  at these time when it is still cheap will be profitable as the halving can also indirectly make people to invest on cryptocurrencies.

[oRiddle]

The price of Bitcoin is not often exposed to the pump due to halving.
I believe that halving can well raise the price in a zone of a neutral situation, but not now.
A global crisis has begun in the world, but not everyone is aware of it. Also, do not lose sight of a pandemic.
At this time, even halving does not make a pump.