0.618 fib retracement @ $48.5K achieved: Is this is the local top?

[EarnOnVictor]

For now, the peak hit by Bitcoin this year at a little above $49,000 will remain the ETF-associated peak in my opinion. The ETF time has been priced in already, and nothing significant can be attributed to it anymore unless we hear of some huge moves caused by it in favour of Bitcoin. After all the ETF has helped the coin to move significantly higher during the rumours, news, headlines and hypes associated with that triggered FOMO, I do not think more can be done by it anymore unless the market takes a breath lower as it is taking it now.

The correction is long overdue, and anything else that would happen will merely be for the pre and post-halving effects which we are of course getting very ready for. Also, with Bitcoin hesitant to move above the psychological level of $40,000 convincingly lately, not to mention the higher level of the 1D Fibo at $40,243, I so much believe that it is weak and will be further pressured to a lower level of $37,519 if the present condition subsist.

[Nrcewker]

I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.

I don’t think Bitcoins will fall below 30k USD. I don’t have any strong evidence to support this statement, but it feels like this only. I know the price corrections will happen, but it won’t fall so deep in price. We might see Bitcoins hanging at 35-40k usd range and for me that’s fine. Moreover that will create an opportunity for us to buy these high valued coins in cheap.

[justdimin]

For now, the peak hit by Bitcoin this year at a little above $49,000 will remain the ETF-associated peak in my opinion. The ETF time has been priced in already, and nothing significant can be attributed to it anymore unless we hear of some huge moves caused by it in favour of Bitcoin. After all the ETF has helped the coin to move significantly higher during the rumours, news, headlines and hypes associated with that triggered FOMO, I do not think more can be done by it anymore unless the market takes a breath lower as it is taking it now.

The correction is long overdue, and anything else that would happen will merely be for the pre and post-halving effects which we are of course getting very ready for. Also, with Bitcoin hesitant to move above the psychological level of $40,000 convincingly lately, not to mention the higher level of the 1D Fibo at $40,243, I so much believe that it is weak and will be further pressured to a lower level of $37,519 if the present condition subsist.

The key factor here is "for now", because it is the current top, and we look like we are far away from it, but remember, within span of just 2 weeks, bitcoin broke both above 49k and under 40k as well. In fact, within three weeks, it has gone from 40k to 49k to 40k again.

So, do not think that reaching above 49k would be impossible for bitcoin, we could literally see 50k+ in a week if bitcoin were to go up, it is not unreal and it is not even that uncommon for bitcoin to go up like that. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it will be 50k+ in a week, I wouldn't know, I wouldn't even speculate such a thing, and I do not even believe that it will. However, I am 100% sure that it is a possibility, we should not leave that out of possible scenarios that could happen.

[EarnOnVictor]

For now, the peak hit by Bitcoin this year at a little above $49,000 will remain the ETF-associated peak in my opinion. The ETF time has been priced in already, and nothing significant can be attributed to it anymore unless we hear of some huge moves caused by it in favour of Bitcoin. After all the ETF has helped the coin to move significantly higher during the rumours, news, headlines and hypes associated with that triggered FOMO, I do not think more can be done by it anymore unless the market takes a breath lower as it is taking it now.

The correction is long overdue, and anything else that would happen will merely be for the pre and post-halving effects which we are of course getting very ready for. Also, with Bitcoin hesitant to move above the psychological level of $40,000 convincingly lately, not to mention the higher level of the 1D Fibo at $40,243, I so much believe that it is weak and will be further pressured to a lower level of $37,519 if the present condition subsist.

The key factor here is "for now", because it is the current top, and we look like we are far away from it, but remember, within span of just 2 weeks, bitcoin broke both above 49k and under 40k as well. In fact, within three weeks, it has gone from 40k to 49k to 40k again.

So, do not think that reaching above 49k would be impossible for bitcoin, we could literally see 50k+ in a week if bitcoin were to go up, it is not unreal and it is not even that uncommon for bitcoin to go up like that. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it will be 50k+ in a week, I wouldn't know, I wouldn't even speculate such a thing, and I do not even believe that it will. However, I am 100% sure that it is a possibility, we should not leave that out of possible scenarios that could happen.

It is you who seems to get me wrong, I never said that Bitcoin will not hit $49,000 or even higher levels than that again, all I said is that the cause won't be attributed to ETF again, or will it? What I carefully explained in my last post is that the ETF-related Bitcoin reaction has priced in already as far as Bitcoin is concerned, which is evident with the way the coin sold so well in weeks after the ETF approval. Nothing else is to be seen but the usual demand and supply of Bitcoin which often happened before the ETF, and this will continue to allow the normal market psychology and sentiment, ETF or not. Money will always be moved in and out of Bitcoin and this will also continue to cause the market to find the prevailing price to be at a given time which was what birthed the rest of my explanation.

We've actually moved past the ETF time, and anyone still relating the afterwards movement of Bitcoin to ETF is not well-informed about the situation unless people have started clearly investing directly into ETF packages, and also investing it in millions/billions. Nonetheless, the market focus is now on halving, and there will surely be pre-halving and post-having market activities, so FOMO might return to the market. So, for me, it is not about ETF anymore as the pre-halving market effect has happened regularly before in Bitcoin history in every 4-cycle. This also explains why Bitcoin will not fall so much and holds a bearish outlook for too long for now even if it tries to be pressured by strong negative bias.

[dragonvslinux]

Just want to point out that you're comparing 2024 to 2019. Those are different years in the market cycle. The $13k to $6k downward drift part of the last market cycle was what happened last year when price went sideways/down from $31k to $25k for 6 months. Bitcoin always shoots up after it breaks out of the bottom of the market ending the bear market ($4k to $13k in 2019, lows $20,000s to $31k last year) and then it drifts sideways/down for roughly half a year. That's always the pattern, and that was last year. 2024 is the halving year, not the bear market ends year. Comparing different parts of the market cycle as though they are the same doesn't allow for good predictions.

Indeed, I am comparing 2024 to 2019, as well as 2016 for that matter, both of which led to -40-50% corrections after 0.618 fib retracement was reached. One of which was a halving year, the other not, both of which had blow off tops after multi-month rallies. There's not a lot of difference here, apart from timing, which was actually different by an entire 12 months. Now we have done so in the middle of these two time-frames.

FYI the only reason I'm not comparing to 2020, which was a halving year and saw a -50%+ correction, is that it was a black swan events, and doesn't really fit with the fib retracement "narrative". But who's to say that after making another lower macro high, that price wouldn't have corrected -35% to -40% anyway? Looking back, I still think this was pretty likely, in order to return to previous volume support / accumulation levels.

Generally, just because price reached a blow-off style top (for now) 6 months later than usual, or 6 months earlier than usual, whoever you want to look at it, then I don't think this negates a pull-back whatsoever.

But besides that, good job predicting the local top. We don't have to worry about what you are suggesting because, as i just pointed out, you're comparing it to the wrong year of the previous market cycle, but still you predicted a nice local top that will probably last for a good few weeks.

This is the problem, we are back in the 2019 market mentality of "we'll never go $10K again", "we'll never see $5K", whereas both happened, even if the latter was more of a "fluke". Whereas returning to see $30K is not only completely possible, but entirely reasonable, based on usual mid-cycle retracements. Even post-halving dare I say it, similar to 2016. All entirely possible right now, similar to $60K and new ATH.