Just want to point out that you're comparing 2024 to 2019. Those are different years in the market cycle. The $13k to $6k downward drift part of the last market cycle was what happened last year when price went sideways/down from $31k to $25k for 6 months. Bitcoin always shoots up after it breaks out of the bottom of the market ending the bear market ($4k to $13k in 2019, lows $20,000s to $31k last year) and then it drifts sideways/down for roughly half a year. That's always the pattern, and that was last year. 2024 is the halving year, not the bear market ends year. Comparing different parts of the market cycle as though they are the same doesn't allow for good predictions.
Indeed, I am comparing 2024 to 2019, as well as 2016 for that matter, both of which led to -40-50% corrections after 0.618 fib retracement was reached. One of which was a halving year, the other not, both of which had blow off tops after multi-month rallies. There's not a lot of difference here, apart from timing, which was actually different by an entire 12 months. Now we have done so in the middle of these two time-frames.
FYI the only reason I'm not comparing to 2020, which was a halving year and saw a -50%+ correction, is that it was a black swan events, and doesn't really fit with the fib retracement "narrative". But who's to say that after making another lower macro high, that price wouldn't have corrected -35% to -40% anyway? Looking back, I still think this was pretty likely, in order to return to previous volume support / accumulation levels.
Generally, just because price reached a blow-off style top (for now) 6 months later than usual, or 6 months earlier than usual, whoever you want to look at it, then I don't think this negates a pull-back whatsoever.
But besides that, good job predicting the local top. We don't have to worry about what you are suggesting because, as i just pointed out, you're comparing it to the wrong year of the previous market cycle, but still you predicted a nice local top that will probably last for a good few weeks.
This is the problem, we are back in the 2019 market mentality of "we'll never go $10K again", "we'll never see $5K", whereas both happened, even if the latter was more of a "fluke". Whereas returning to see $30K is not only completely possible, but entirely reasonable, based on usual mid-cycle retracements. Even post-halving dare I say it, similar to 2016. All entirely possible right now, similar to $60K and new ATH.