Bitcoin - Previous vs Current Cycle

[wiss19]

but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I?

That's not that much and that's only going to be around 2.5x from the current price of $69k. And with what the speculations and analyses that I have read, 10x is actually more than from what they're seeing since it is past with the last cycles that we're in. So, IMHO $172k is possible but I hope that I still able to hold a lot from that time because many of us are likely to sell from the price ranges of $100k-$120k and $150k is going to be a survival mode for the ones who are still in diamond hands by that time. Thanks for the chart IT, with what the cycles that we've seen, the red line is likely going to surpass that green line.

Indeed it is only 2.5x but the thing is that BTC price is already huge or the coin is already heavy for it to move quickly upwards. If someone managed to hold that long and earned a title of diamond hands, they will be glad about it and they are now motivated to continue what they have started.

It is only a survival for those who are not on their level yet. Their emotions are still fragile and they are more likely to sell their coins at any moment by the time we hit those price ranges or more. If we believed that the reds are going to surpass the greens, then we need to plan ahead whether if we will buy more coins or sell early because we need some money.

[Hallroom]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

This curve will surely improve after much patience as 2025 is waiting for Bitcoin bull run to start. So at present Bitcoin price is between $60k to $70k. So very soon the price of Bitcoin will reach a bullish peak, but it is most important for us to notice that we are very close to a bull market.

[darewaller]

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.

I really appreciate your idea of combining charts of last two cycles of bitcoin market. I am also a believer of history repeating itself and fortunately I enjoyed the 2017 bull run by expecting similar growth of 2013 and market surprised me with ~20x growth from previous ATH but when I was expecting similar thing in 2021, it was only ~3x growth (of 2017's ATH). But, comparing both bearish market and bullish market would be more interesting which is the thing I am getting from your chart.

Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

I disagree here. Like I have mentioned before bitcoin is known for surprising us so you cannot speculate about timeframe of ATH and the level of ATH. Because ATH and its time will be fully influenced by market sentiment which is beyond any technical analysis. I am expecting another 10x growth from the 2021 ATH or least another 5x which means we may have some thing between 300k to 600k. At the same time some people here are confident about $1 million as well.

[Greyhats]

nice to see some positivity from you again :-)

Its a bit eerie when you overlay 2nd and current, could we be in store for some serious face meltingness this time around. 

[dezoel]

It is just "a bit" different because we reached ATH before halving instead of after, which nobody was ready for that I know, but ETF happened and tens of thousands of bitcoins were bought all at once within one month span, which made price go up, not only that ETF people bought, but others seeing the ETF companies buying, ended up buying on the hype train as well.

This is why I believe that we have seen a little bit of difference, but at the end of the day I think it is going to do fine again anyway, we will not really see anything all that complicated or different. This is why I believe that we shouldn't really see a cycle change or anything, things will stay as same and expected as we will see for the long term.

[FinePoine0]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

Of course we are very happy to see this current circle because it has been going on long enough. However, these candles reveal that it is more likely to head to the highest level, which is why Bitcoin folding is most important at the moment, because it will hit the highest level when the market completes its high momentum. Then, if the price of Bitcoin hits the highest level since the current time, it will create the biggest bull run market.