Bitcoin - Previous vs Current Cycle

[ImThour]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

[DeathAngel]

Interesting, seems we are ahead of the previous fractal currently. Let’s hope that continues, I actually think we will go higher than $172,000 but it would still be a nice price if that’s where it tops out at. I think over $200,000 is likely. Let’s wait & see though, only way to find out.

[Dave1]

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

I think I have this kind of personal prediction as well, from a conservative estimates of $120k, to as high as $180k as the new all time high in this bull cycle. And it could be achieved in the last cycle of 2025.

Of course, everyone should take precautions as no one can predict the market with accuracy as we are just putting our best effort to make a wild and educate guess base on many factors including it's previous charts like what the OP is putting here.

[babo]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

a really good graph, I'll steal it from you
this helps a lot to understand where we are and what we can expect (approximately) from what has happened in the past
the past is never the same (in everything) but it loves to rhyme as they say

thank you for sharing this

[Jawhead999]

The previous cycle had more pump and dump, while the current cycle looks more stable and the price tend to rise, probably due to the market becomes more mature than before. Even though the current chart looks really bullish, but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

[Dunamisx]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

Even though both of these are very different cycles however at some point of time, they collide and stay together for some time.
Sept-Oct 2025 is the time when I think Bitcoin ATH will be in for this cycle. And if you have seen my previous charts, my Bitcoin Price Target is $172k which is nearly 145% from the current price.

Let's see how it goes.

Lets expect the best to come with the current circle as we already had the bitcoin all time high and henceforth we should expect more of the market bulls in this current circle, i expect that we see bitcoin reaching it new all time high between now and the first quarter of 2025 and anytime from now, we are expecting for more bullish market than ever before, while this present circle is bullish already and will go on that same direction more consistent for now.

[ImThour]

but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I?

[tabas]

but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I?

That's not that much and that's only going to be around 2.5x from the current price of $69k. And with what the speculations and analyses that I have read, 10x is actually more than from what they're seeing since it is past with the last cycles that we're in. So, IMHO $172k is possible but I hope that I still able to hold a lot from that time because many of us are likely to sell from the price ranges of $100k-$120k and $150k is going to be a survival mode for the ones who are still in diamond hands by that time. Thanks for the chart IT, with what the cycles that we've seen, the red line is likely going to surpass that green line.

[fuguebtc]

but I think the upcoming bull season will not able to reach 20x multiplier, x10 is still realistic as Bitcoin price getting expensive, it require more money to pump it.

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I?

That's not that much and that's only going to be around 2.5x from the current price of $69k. And with what the speculations and analyses that I have read, 10x is actually more than from what they're seeing since it is past with the last cycles that we're in. So, IMHO $172k is possible but I hope that I still able to hold a lot from that time because many of us are likely to sell from the price ranges of $100k-$120k and $150k is going to be a survival mode for the ones who are still in diamond hands by that time. Thanks for the chart IT, with what the cycles that we've seen, the red line is likely going to surpass that green line.

x10 profit is not much, how much do you think is much? You cannot find any traditional asset or business that can deliver x10 returns in 4 years. And those who buy bitcoin from now and if bitcoin can reach $170k, they will gain 2.5 times profit in just 1.5 years. And I can tell you that no traditional asset can do the same thing that bitcoin has done. That's also why many traditional investors call bitcoin a get-rich-quick investment.

I also see many people on the forum setting a target of 100k$ but I don't believe they will sell when bitcoin reaches 100k$, in a bull market there will always be greed. Planning and setting goals is one thing, whether we follow the plan or not is another.

[kentrolla]

An eye opener from those who are still hesitant to belive Bitcoin will spike even further, this graph helps us understand how the current trend has been better than the previous cycle and it's a clear but signal as we were awaiting for the magical number of $100k but it seems like there I much more in the store for us. Also, once Bitcoin hits the long awaited target of $100k people will go crazy and it will cross $150k in no time due to FOMO.

[justdimin]

Lets expect the best to come with the current circle as we already had the bitcoin all time high and henceforth we should expect more of the market bulls in this current circle, i expect that we see bitcoin reaching it new all time high between now and the first quarter of 2025 and anytime from now, we are expecting for more bullish market than ever before, while this present circle is bullish already and will go on that same direction more consistent for now.

I agree, we are going to see the situation that will be pretty high and that will be lovely in the end, we shouldn't be really worried about it. I feel like it should not be a big deal and we are going to end up with something that will benefit everyone. I believe that we should be considering the situation as sensitive because that will definitely give them a lot better results for sure.

This should be the most important part of it and we are going to see it grow to be enough to make miners profit a good amount. ETF situation definitely helps as well, the higher we go, the more they are investing and that is fuelling our increase as well, making it a lot easier, so we should definitely focus on that type of increase at this moment soon enough.

[STT]

200 days or about 6 or 7 months from halvening before the effects of the lower supply are especially evident in the price.   That puts us past the end of this year to securely have a positive reaction in the price, not the worst because if BTC just stays above 50k and thats the gloom its not the extreme negative just more impatience that will strike people no doubt.

I like the comparative chart but I wouldn't take it too literally as a roadmap for our next direction but more the mood at each stage is probably going to sound out in a similar way.  'History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes' is a phrase said by Mark Twain apparently.  Iam a secret pessimist it seems so its a struggle for me to say it but over 100k is possible as the next peak but I also think it will occur in an erratic and possibly brief way and still I imagine we go in circles alot more then people had anticipated.
  We had the road map upside down, so it was true but our reading of it was not the best and took some time before we'll get to these impressive prices, something like that is how I imagine the truth will transpire.

[BlockStock]

FYI: I have studied the very first major bull market, and BTC went over 30 times higher (30x +) in a short time. There are limits what can be learned by studying the older past cycles, but there's no reason to ignore them completely.

[pinggoki]

Is it possible to see the Era 1 and Era 2 to see if there's also some similarities with the current cycle, this chart gives me hope that there's a possibility that bitcoin will continue peaking to my target price before the next halving happens but I can never be too complacent about stuff because I know that bitcoin is a volatile market and you can never expect it to go where you want it to go because when that happens, that's when it will pull the rug under that expectations, learned a lot during those times when bitcoin was being hyped when it was still at 20k peak and then it suddenly fell and people were so mad about bitcoin when it's their fault that they were so hyped up that they didn't expect it to go down anymore.

[buwaytress]

Yup, If you look at the exact bottom of the cycle, $15.4k, $154k is the 10x. My Target price for Bitcoin's next ATH is $172k. I mean I am not asking much from Bitcoin, or am I?

Here I stood, thinking I'd thought up all possible permutations of ATH but I was always stuck at ATH to ATH (20k to 66k in the last cycle, for example), and considering that the amplitudes from ATH to ATH were narrowing each cycle.

The Bottom to ATH though provides an interesting ask. We've not seen lower than 10x on that preamble, so I would say to you: no, sir, that's not too much to ask for! Mental fingers crossed.

[Maus0728]

Interesting, seems we are ahead of the previous fractal currently. Let’s hope that continues, I actually think we will go higher than $172,000 but it would still be a nice price if that’s where it tops out at. I think over $200,000 is likely. Let’s wait & see though, only way to find out.

I hope that it's going to go over $200k because that would be a real game changer for bitcoin investment and it's a really big profit for everyone of us if it happens, going at $200k would mean that the value is going to go down to a much lower level especially when you're just starting to invest, you would regret not buying at $50k of bitcoin because you'll see that the floor price will move up and it will never go lower than that anymore, and if the unexpected happens and bitcoin did go down at really high amounts, people will clamor again that it's the end of bitcoin and that people are going to be quitting in investing left and right, it's a really big winter if bitcoin reaches $200k.

[Wind_FURY]

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle

👀

For the smart people. Do you believe that the ETF + the Halving will make Bitcoin have less volatility BUT make it have a longer - although slower - price rise during the current cycle? I don't know if that's more suitable for many people in Bitcoin Land, but it could be for those people who want their mental sanity unharmed, no?

[yhiaali3]

Your Bitcoin price target of $172,000 I find very acceptable to me. Expect it to be between 150-200K$, but why do you think we will not see this number before September-October 2025?

In any case, the issue of time is not a big issue. The important thing is that we are optimistic that we will see the price of Bitcoin 150-200K$. I also have hope that we will reach there in the first half of 2025.

At the moment we are following DCA and waiting for the results.

[enwi]

Your Bitcoin price target of $172,000 I find very acceptable to me. Expect it to be between 150-200K$, but why do you think we will not see this number before September-October 2025?

In any case, the issue of time is not a big issue. The important thing is that we are optimistic that we will see the price of Bitcoin 150-200K$. I also have hope that we will reach there in the first half of 2025.

At the moment we are following DCA and waiting for the results.

Maybe we can't see Bitcoin numbers that expensive because the bullish season won't necessarily happen again and could make Bitcoin prices increase to that expensive. Because usually the bullish season will occur when the halving approaches. We have passed the halving period and have to wait the next 4 years for the price of Bitcoin to increase even more.

[tabas]

That's not that much and that's only going to be around 2.5x from the current price of $69k. And with what the speculations and analyses that I have read, 10x is actually more than from what they're seeing since it is past with the last cycles that we're in. So, IMHO $172k is possible but I hope that I still able to hold a lot from that time because many of us are likely to sell from the price ranges of $100k-$120k and $150k is going to be a survival mode for the ones who are still in diamond hands by that time. Thanks for the chart IT, with what the cycles that we've seen, the red line is likely going to surpass that green line.

x10 profit is not much, how much do you think is much? You cannot find any traditional asset or business that can deliver x10 returns in 4 years. And those who buy bitcoin from now and if bitcoin can reach $170k, they will gain 2.5 times profit in just 1.5 years. And I can tell you that no traditional asset can do the same thing that bitcoin has done. That's also why many traditional investors call bitcoin a get-rich-quick investment.

If we're going to base that for Bitcoin's current state, that's already much if you're looking at the current price of it. But you are right that there is no traditional asset or investment that can give that much on a span of short period of time. It doesn't matter for those traditional investors what they call Bitcoin with because that's their opinion about it and they cannot alter the performance that it has done and will keep doing for the next years to come.

I also see many people on the forum setting a target of 100k$ but I don't believe they will sell when bitcoin reaches 100k$, in a bull market there will always be greed. Planning and setting goals is one thing, whether we follow the plan or not is another.

That makes sense but for someone who's got a plan of when to sell and take profit, they're going to follow their plans. It's not always roses that we're deal on this market so just do what you think is right for you when the time comes.