Logic of crypto bull market

[Wexnident]

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Wouldn't it be better to use general numbers instead of specific ones? e.g. 12-18 months after halving and like that. While I agree that the next bull would probably be in 2025, I actually have no idea what month specifically and how long it would even last.

Still, I'd take into account other events in addition to what OP said. I'd say OP is like a general guide based on history? And honestly, what OP said can technically be "logic" already imo. Just one based on history, which is iirc a part of technical analysis, compared to fundamental analysis that analyzes future trends.

[yhiaali3]

For my part, I cannot use logic in the cryptocurrency market because the matter is much more complicated than that. It is not accurate to think about the crypto market as if things are going according to a specific logic. This is not true because there are many variables and incidents that can happen suddenly and change the course of the entire market.

Yes, the factors that you mentioned, such as halving, the US elections, and QE BY FED, all play a major role in determining the direction of the market, but you cannot predict what will happen as if it is an infallible scenario. This is wrong. You build your analyses according to the data you have in hand and then wait for the results, and often the results come out contrary to expectations.

[davis196]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only in the short term.

[Akbarkoe]

For my part, I cannot use logic in the cryptocurrency market because the matter is much more complicated than that. It is not accurate to think about the crypto market as if things are going according to a specific logic. This is not true because there are many variables and incidents that can happen suddenly and change the course of the entire market.

Yes, the factors that you mentioned, such as halving, the US elections, and QE BY FED, all play a major role in determining the direction of the market, but you cannot predict what will happen as if it is an infallible scenario. This is wrong. You build your analyses according to the data you have in hand and then wait for the results, and often the results come out contrary to expectations.

Of course we need other factors that can be seen or as additional factors, decisions on interest rate cuts, elections, Having to have a review of the state of global geo-politics, the global economy and others, so that you can see the possibility of the market going in which direction, sudden events often occur that give negative sentiment towards bitcoin that's right, these agendas can be used as catalysts but need to see the whole situation.

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only in the short term.

Some things can rely on hunches to judge, but it should also be understood that we can analyze, these factors are very logical if we see positive sentiment towards the market and the flow of money that will be poured in by investors because they have confidence when the economy is going very well, then politics will be very influential especially if the narrative that is built on political contestation brings bitcoin as a form of attitude that will be brought by one of the candidates as is now happening in the US, finally regarding your third point, the length or shortness of the influence but can verify that the logic of the market is correct.

[jaberwock]

The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only in the short term.

Yeah, I guess he is talking about that one, and we are going to peak without a doubt, it is going to be 12 months, as in spring of 2025 should be all time high for a long time, at least for this bull run. There isn't really any questionable situation about this, we are moving at the right direction, both rates are cutting down and also we are seeing halving coming together so the price should be growing very high.

I believe that 200k isn't really impossible and should be a price point we can reach. Doesn't mean that we are going to see it, we could fail to reach there because 200k is such a high price but we "may" and the whole point of investing is speculation so if you believe that it "may" reach that then even if price doesn't get there, we are going to see it grow. So, if it fails to go to 200k but reaches 150k that means you still profit a lot when you buy right now, that is the most important part and we need to consider that as the reason why we should buy right now.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I too think that these events like US elections, cutting down the interest rates, the printing of money, War in the world, and economic situations globally are just excuses for the bull and bear market. In reality, it has more to do with the algorithm of Bitcoin, the four year halving cycle, miners and the cost of mining, which are the true factors for the bull market and the bear market. So regardless of the current political and economic situation, we are heading towards the bitcoin bull market.

Yes, it is a fact that things with Bitcoin have many factors that make it react to current situations, everything you have said is true, it is what should affect, but because Bitcoin is also treated as something similar to a stock, it is a speculative element of the market, therefore it obeys the action of supply and demand that governs it, they have investors of all kinds, some move the market, others are simply there waiting for the best way to make things better, then it is a fact that when looking at the btc chart it looks very bullish, and that is the trend that has been maintained from the Beginning.