Logic of crypto bull market

[Helex]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

[Odusko]

Can we really point to all the point you mentioned as the True propeller of bull market, by just mentioning events and also outlining some months interval may not make up for right speculations, because considering the last bitcoin all time high market, it happened so suddenly and just as we thought that the halving just happened and it will take some months before the next bitcoin bull market.

Suddenly we saw how the market took a new turn and at that point strethened it reach until it made the new all time high price before the value of bitcoin started declining downward again, this shows that our failure to predict when the next possible Bull market will happen proves the fact that bitcoin market is highly unpredictable at most time.

But then also we can speculate near accurate in some cases, but not in an accurate. Manner so we shouldn't be overly carried away with our speculations.

[Poker Player]

Well, there is no logic in the classical sense, we cannot apply an algorithm and starting from some premises be sure of the solution.

There is an economic logic, in that based on the past and reasoning we can think that those things that the OP points out, the halving, the Fed, the elections, are going to influence the price but things always happen that we do not foresee or those that we foresee influence in another way.

[TastyChillySauce00]

even the fixed date for the bullrun is vague and not necessarily guaranteed but bullrun will definitely come, this is why just DCA is the way because I've seen from the current chart, sometime it might look like it's about to dump but suddenly shoots up, we might repeat the same price chart like in 2020 where the price also suddenly going up so high as well.



if remember correctly in 2020 the price went up immediately right after rate cut so this narrative makes a lot of sense.

but one thing for sure we will hit $100k when time is right.

[martinex]

if remember correctly in 2020 the price went up immediately right after rate cut so this narrative makes a lot of sense.

but one thing for sure we will hit $100k when time is right.

Of course sir, the 100K figure at the end of this year is unlikely to be penetrated, but certainly 80K, many are sure that the BTC price on that day will be achieved. I see today that market expectations are very good, especially after the feed's decision to cut interest rates yesterday.

The BTC price had previously touched 64K in just one day and this is a strong signal that there will be another price increase this week.

[Kemarit]

even the fixed date for the bullrun is vague and not necessarily guaranteed but bullrun will definitely come, this is why just DCA is the way because I've seen from the current chart, sometime it might look like it's about to dump but suddenly shoots up, we might repeat the same price chart like in 2020 where the price also suddenly going up so high as well.



if remember correctly in 2020 the price went up immediately right after rate cut so this narrative makes a lot of sense.

but one thing for sure we will hit $100k when time is right.

And as far as I can remember, that was the last time that we have seen the Fed cut at 0.5 and after that we are in the bull run. Nevertheless, it's really hard to compare that time as of today, so I would not jump into the conclusion that there are algorithm as what the OP is trying to put here.

It's not a guarantee and there are a lot of factors to look at this year and the next. Heck, we can even add to the equation the US election and what it impact it should have be if we see Trump winning or losing. For the $100,000, this is what everyone is expecting, so let's see, again, we have seen a new pattern as we have hit a new all time high before the halving so we should also take that into account.

[justdimin]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

Bull market could definitely happen quite soon in 2025 there is no doubt but I think it would be halving + 12 months and elections + 6 months, so I would cut those short six months both compared to OP. That would mean that we are going to see the price change a lot on spring give or take, and that would be a good thing because we really need it and we could make some good money from holding it during this period as well. I know that many people think that we are not going to see the price change all that easily and that maybe the cycle will not happen this time but I think it will happen and we are not going to see this at all.

So all in all I would say that we should not be worried about it this because they are wrong and we are going to see the cycle happen. How do I know? I rather believe what I have seen so far in history to repeat itself than some stranger online saying their gut feeling is that it will not happen again, it's more more credible to look to the past.

[AmoreJaz]

And as far as I can remember, that was the last time that we have seen the Fed cut at 0.5 and after that we are in the bull run. Nevertheless, it's really hard to compare that time as of today, so I would not jump into the conclusion that there are algorithm as what the OP is trying to put here.

It's not a guarantee and there are a lot of factors to look at this year and the next. Heck, we can even add to the equation the US election and what it impact it should have be if we see Trump winning or losing. For the $100,000, this is what everyone is expecting, so let's see, again, we have seen a new pattern as we have hit a new all time high before the halving so we should also take that into account.

As we have observed, we will experience bull run season if there is some type of controversy not only in crypto market, but sometimes political aspect have some influence as to how market will behave. For spectators, we are just left to observe and act as to what may the path will be.

Bull or bear season, if you are a trader or investor of this market, you should know when will you buy or sell your currency. Because there is no defined timeframe of bull or bear season, it is on you how will you take advantage the market.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

We may see many contrary opinions about this, because even some times after halving, the market of bitcoin may tend to fall, so if we are into what may caused us the fear of missing out, then we may not go by other values we have in crypto that we can still rise again at any point, even when the market falls dip, but as for the bull market, its better that we take a good cognizance that bitcoin is mainly determined by the market demand and supply rate

[tabas]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

My short logic into bull run is this, as long as the halving's done then that's the start of the bull market but it has been different this time. Before the halving is done, we're already in the bull run. And with all of these fundamentals and factors, it seems that we're going to have a longer bull run this time and I hope that achieving $100k won't disappoint us for this cycle compared to the last one that we have in 2021. Many have thought that it was the time that BTC would reach $100k but then it wasn't enough although I have no problem during that cycle and it's still one of the best. The best thing to remind of ourselves is whatever factors, lists, technical analysis, or fundamentals analysis that works for each of us, lean on it.

[shinratensei_]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

We may see many contrary opinions about this, because even some times after halving, the market of bitcoin may tend to fall, so if we are into what may caused us the fear of missing out, then we may not go by other values we have in crypto that we can still rise again at any point, even when the market falls dip, but as for the bull market, its better that we take a good cognizance that bitcoin is mainly determined by the market demand and supply rate

indeed usually market falls after halving but market also starts picking up when big event occurs, that is 50bps fed rate cut, this is what trigger previous bullrun to occur, as well as causing S&P500 reaching ATH, bitcoin usually lags behind but it will also sets new ATH record eventually, bitcoin is pretty much following the pattern of other investments right now. so the statement that halving could cause price downfall may not hold candle this time around.

btc as much as I know, could just directly go very bullish but that's also not healthy, a good bullish is when the price having occasional retracement but still stay inline with the projected price trajectory.

[Dailyscript]

Well if you want to apply logic then you should first of understand that the Bitcoin piracy movement is not guaranteed by past events. Falling to understand this concept will cause one to fail in the end. What you did is purely speculation so it's not a guarantee that if investors follow the trend there will be success at the end.

And again, just to prove your logic, give the period in which if applied in the past was successful. Tell us the year and your logic was proven to be correct.

[Baofeng]

This market is very volatile, so I doubt that there is logic or if we can come up with a reason when the price will go on spike and make a new all time high. Although our speculation points out that in 2025, maybe we will reach $100k++ or more.

But still, there are a lot of parameters here, like the geo-politics in the background, maybe the newly elected US president in November and others. So there are no exact timeline just like the OP point of +18 months or whatever numbers he put up based on what he see in the past.

[yudi09]

The crucial moment can be one of the supporters that can cause a high price spike or cause a bull market. Simply put, if you can't be sure when the time is including the date and month, for me, just make it a four-year cycle and the law of supply and demand in addition to being patient with whatever happens until the bull market really happens.
News reporting the FED on interest rates will be a good opportunity for prices. Just go back to what I said, live and enjoy that Bitcoin is not an ordinary coin like other coins. Bitcoin is different.

[rhodelmabanal]

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

We have different sight about crypto, but i think that no one can predict the price we don't know when bull market comes and the bull market depends on the whole market situation not just US election,halving, etc., the only thing we can do is to stay calm and control the emotion investing in crypto is almost the same as gambling sometimes win and sometimes we loss.

[Kemarit]

And as far as I can remember, that was the last time that we have seen the Fed cut at 0.5 and after that we are in the bull run. Nevertheless, it's really hard to compare that time as of today, so I would not jump into the conclusion that there are algorithm as what the OP is trying to put here.

It's not a guarantee and there are a lot of factors to look at this year and the next. Heck, we can even add to the equation the US election and what it impact it should have be if we see Trump winning or losing. For the $100,000, this is what everyone is expecting, so let's see, again, we have seen a new pattern as we have hit a new all time high before the halving so we should also take that into account.

As we have observed, we will experience bull run season if there is some type of controversy not only in crypto market, but sometimes political aspect have some influence as to how market will behave. For spectators, we are just left to observe and act as to what may the path will be.

Last cycle, we have some controversies that have affected the market to increased and go on a parabolic rise, that is when Elon Musk was really influential to Bitcoin, when all we can hear from his is that his company is going to buy Bitcoin and that we will accept it as means of payment when buying his car. So the price really took off, until he chance his mind and then we all forget about him.

Bull or bear season, if you are a trader or investor of this market, you should know when will you buy or sell your currency. Because there is no defined timeframe of bull or bear season, it is on you how will you take advantage the market.

Of course, we accumulate in bear market, because the price is very cheap, the lowest low we recorded in this cycle is around $15,500. So that is a huge increased already if you have bought around that price. But still we are looking for the 6 digits price and maybe along this bull run, the return will be really like 10x if we hit around $150,000 or more.

[YOSHIE]

SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

If you speculate about the bull market and you don't use logic, that's your right to think, for that reason, if I speculate about the bull market, of course I have to be guided by logic.

In assessing the crypto bull market, if you use logical thinking, of course it will make it easier and you can learn the right and wrong name methods, meaning that if you don't consider it with common sense, speculation will be damaged, for that reason logic is important, because we can assess and make decisions objectively, firmly and not emotionally in considering the value of crypto in the bull market, with that we can reason about the direction of the market well and correctly, it will happen based on experience, whether it's halving and so on.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Market logic I wish it worked like you say, but particularly it doesn't and that is where it is shown that AT fails sometimes until it always considers the fundamentals and possible fundamentals, such as elections, wars, pandemics and unfortunately that can happen at any time, plus it is already previously announced, so this kills all market logic that they can do and all AT, therefore when observing all these types of things that can happen is a fact that speculating in the long term can become a little more difficult, the logic that we know based on patterns sometimes cannot give the expected results.

[virasog]

Market logic I wish it worked like you say, but particularly it doesn't and that is where it is shown that AT fails sometimes until it always considers the fundamentals and possible fundamentals, such as elections, wars, pandemics and unfortunately that can happen at any time, plus it is already previously announced, so this kills all market logic that they can do and all AT, therefore when observing all these types of things that can happen is a fact that speculating in the long term can become a little more difficult, the logic that we know based on patterns sometimes cannot give the expected results.

I too think that these events like US elections, cutting down the interest rates, the printing of money, War in the world, and economic situations globally are just excuses for the bull and bear market. In reality, it has more to do with the algorithm of Bitcoin, the four year halving cycle, miners and the cost of mining, which are the true factors for the bull market and the bear market. So regardless of the current political and economic situation, we are heading towards the bitcoin bull market.