I'm not shorting anymore

[segeln]

I had in mind something else:



And the volume is dropping...replay of the end of January?

This triangle is bullish. It is a pennant.

+1

[TERA]

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:

I noticed a pattern:



There was an increasing slope of support level, which was broken.

I'm not saying it's dropping to the purple line on the bottom but there is nowhere on the chart to look at besides that. It is clueless guesswork to try to find where support will be.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Yes, 100-200 lvl is where i am willing to buy BTC.

[piramida]

I noticed a pattern:



There was an increasing slope of support level, which was broken.

I'm not saying it's dropping to the purple line on the bottom but there is nowhere on the chart to look at besides that. It is clueless guesswork to try to find where support will be.

But why do you ignore the low in your second support line? Try drawing an actual support, you will see a very convincing rebound now.

If that supposed to be a joke, sorry I missed it then.

[TERA]

I noticed a pattern:



There was an increasing slope of support level, which was broken.

I'm not saying it's dropping to the purple line on the bottom but there is nowhere on the chart to look at besides that. It is clueless guesswork to try to find where support will be.

But why do you ignore the low in your second support line? Try drawing an actual support, you will see a very convincing rebound now.

If that supposed to be a joke, sorry I missed it then.

The purple dots and lines are drawn based on the 'elbows' of each cycle, meaning where it stopped going sideways and started shooting up. Silk road does not count because it was an outlier caused by an unusual circumstance, placing a flashcrash in a very odd location, and only lasted for one day. I do not use silk road data in any of my charts.

you could use the same trend with the peaks also. in that case the trend was broken in December

[Tzupy]

The trendline you drew was the theoretical trendline for bitcoin price, based on MtGox data.
However, because of the Gox fiat withdrawal issue, the previous bubble didn't fully deflate to about 30$.
And then the Chinese buying spree (one time event) distorted the trendline (it shot up too soon).
If China gets completely out of the picture (like having bitcoins would mean to be an enemy of the state),
then this bubble may completely deflate and touch the purple trendline around 150$.

[piramida]

The purple dots and lines are drawn based on the 'elbows' of each cycle, meaning where it stopped going sideways and started shooting up. Silk road does not count because it was an outlier caused by an unusual circumstance, placing a flashcrash in a very odd location, and only lasted for one day. I do not use silk road data in any of my charts.

Ok understood, but that could also mean a return to the previous (flatter) angle, in case rally starts from these current levels.

If it drops to 150 and rallies from there, that would mean a negative inclination for the current leg, something that has never happened so far, and that would definitely signal a fundamental decline in adoption rate - something that is just not there.

[leopard2]

ta doesnt work if everyone expects it to work 

[piramida]

ta doesnt work if everyone expects it to work 

That's exactly when it works. Markets - all markets - are best simulated by a running herd of brainless animals (no offense to each particular animal) - you have to guess where the herd will turn next to make most profit. If there are some signs on the ground that usually make the herd turn, then your task is to read those signs and plan your turns before the rest. One who turns last, gets eaten

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

I don't think you can actually short bitcoin.

[perlboy]

I don't think you can actually short bitcoin.

Huh? Yes you can.

http://www.bitfinex.com/
http://btc.sx/

And btc-e also does 4:1 margin trading I believe.

[chesthing]

I've found some interesting trends that could indicate a turn into the direction to which BTC is heading
The steady decline is now being replaced by a slow increase. I'll keep an eye on this, when value touch the new trending lines.

Nick.

Man, looking at this chart really makes you wonder if we are in total denial that bitcoin is dying, soon to be a footnote in history. Then again, this could be a repeat of April's top, fall, dead cat bounce, sideways for awhile the BOOM  - looks very similar, no?

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

I don't think you can actually short bitcoin.

Huh? Yes you can.

http://www.bitfinex.com/
http://btc.sx/

And btc-e also does 4:1 margin trading I believe.

Do you need to apply for margin or do they give it to everyone?

I think this sounds very risky to both the user and the exchange.