Is the US economy going up or down?

[pattu1]

Is very interesting to notice that majority of bearish opinions come from US, while majority of bullish opinions are overseas.

The main drive for this is the shale oil revolution, which is being minimized in the public channels so US can take a huge leap forward. Meanwhile, EuroFlowers go riot because they think shale is going to poison the Milky Way.

The second drive is that while in Euroland, Russia and LatAm are driving towards a neo-socialism (which means rigid labour, low productivity, subsidies and general misery) US and some Asian countries are still waving the business friendly flag.

As some pointed here, Stock Market is useless. Its pretty disconnected from reality since 2010. But you will live much better the next 10 years in USA than in any euro country, thats a fact. And im under the blue starred flag... 

Stock market is a useless barometer because of QE, but I guess at some point it is going to have to reflect ground reality. There will be a bloodbath when the correction occurs.

[worle1bm]

So contrary to the community opinion, the U.S. economy is doing fairly well. The U.S. has been meeting inflation goals, GDP growth is better than most economies, the dollar is strong, and improved hydrocarbon production in addition to lower prices means less outflow to nations the U.S. doesn't really like. QE is slowing down, which signals faith in conventional growth, and the major indices like the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, are performing fairly strongly.

All the signs and metrics suggest the U.S. economy is "going up" as you put it.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Is very interesting to notice that majority of bearish opinions come from US, while majority of bullish opinions are overseas.

The main drive for this is the shale oil revolution, which is being minimized in the public channels so US can take a huge leap forward. Meanwhile, EuroFlowers go riot because they think shale is going to poison the Milky Way.

The second drive is that while in Euroland, Russia and LatAm are driving towards a neo-socialism (which means rigid labour, low productivity, subsidies and general misery) US and some Asian countries are still waving the business friendly flag.

As some pointed here, Stock Market is useless. Its pretty disconnected from reality since 2010. But you will live much better the next 10 years in USA than in any euro country, thats a fact. And im under the blue starred flag... 

Stock market is a useless barometer because of QE, but I guess at some point it is going to have to reflect ground reality. There will be a bloodbath when the correction occurs.

I agree that QE had somewhat distorted stock prices, (you should note that even now that QE is completed the stock market is continuing to hit record highs) it is not a 100% useless barometer of the health of the US economy. One thing you can look at is corporate earnings (which also influences stock prices) and by this measure the economy is doing very well.

[zoukenn]

US economy goes down slowly. We do not know the real things, but US economy is based on wars and oil. If that would be stopped somehow then drop of economy will be more than obvious.

Exactly. Maybe if US will starts to sell a part of their oil, there will be possible to stop the decreasing of economy. Hope that US will stop wars.

[ninjaskip]

US economy goes down slowly. We do not know the real things, but US economy is based on wars and oil. If that would be stopped somehow then drop of economy will be more than obvious.

Exactly. Maybe if US will starts to sell a part of their oil, there will be possible to stop the decreasing of economy. Hope that US will stop wars.

Watch out for China, will eat America and get sick with it's rotten bones.

[FattyMcButterpants]

US economy goes down slowly. We do not know the real things, but US economy is based on wars and oil. If that would be stopped somehow then drop of economy will be more than obvious.

Exactly. Maybe if US will starts to sell a part of their oil, there will be possible to stop the decreasing of economy. Hope that US will stop wars.

A country's war machine can actually help stimulate it's economy as massive amounts of money is spent on the war. Plus when the war is over (assuming the country wins the war) it's companies will often participate in the rebuilding in the country that lost the war, resulting in more economic activity