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Author Topic: Is the US economy going up or down?  (Read 3510 times)
KonstantinosM
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October 11, 2014, 06:43:00 AM
 #1

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.
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October 11, 2014, 07:43:00 AM
 #2

not good.
Every four to six years, the U.S. experiences an economic slowdown. Although the current bull market is now in its fourth year, there are many existing issues.
http://www.useconomicoutlook2014.com/


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zyzzbrah
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October 11, 2014, 12:42:18 PM
 #3

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.

Doesn't matter, all these macroeconomic data improvements only satisfy the wealthy, most people will go on wit their shitty lives.
Economic growth has nothing to do with living conditions in a country. Economic growth is irrelevant. Employment rates and personal debt rates matter
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October 11, 2014, 01:30:14 PM
 #4

I think their economy is going up.

I said that based on my local currency.
US $ crush my currency until Rp 12.000 now ( before was Rp 9.000 then Rp 11.900)

I'm so sad about this, My primary need's cost (food,hotel,etc) is getting higher and higher  Sad
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October 11, 2014, 04:00:35 PM
 #5

It will go up until the federal reserve and the dollar run out of power to keep everything going and as it stands now the dollar is beginning to lose it's reserve currency status, partially in thanks to Bitcoin which is why countries like Russia and China fear it so much, what's keeping the U.S economy rising right now is inflation, so eventually there will be another crash like 2008 - 2009, the question is just when.
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October 11, 2014, 05:22:20 PM
 #6

the economy is in a worse shape than it was in 2007, don't let stock prices fool you, the reason they are high is because of all the money the fed printed in QE1-3.
once those stocks are sold and people actually try to realize the gains by buying products there will be hyperinflation.
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October 11, 2014, 07:04:44 PM
 #7

Simple question. From where I'm standing it seems to be doing neither so I'd like to hear some facts and perhaps some opinions.
The economy is currently growing. The rate of growth is much less then what most economists would expect at this point in a recovery after a recession. The economy had shrank in the first quarter of the year however many economists had downplayed that to be caused by extremely cold weather and economy data has somewhat baked that up.
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October 11, 2014, 07:07:40 PM
 #8

down in the mid/long run. and after that, up  Wink

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October 11, 2014, 10:18:38 PM
Last edit: October 11, 2014, 11:51:00 PM by mmsen
 #9

The banks inflated the economy with funny money last time around.

This time it's the Federal money that has inflated the economy.

Sit back and wait for the crash because it's coming.

Another indicator would be real wages (private sector especially) - which haven't risen.

That would be a real sign of a growing economy.
KonstantinosM
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October 11, 2014, 10:57:04 PM
 #10

It's hard for me to understand how we can fuck it up this badly for ourselves here in the united states. We have 300 million people in a gigantic country with good capabilities/minerals/strategic position.

People here could potentially become net producers for society and sustain themselves endlessly.

Even with climate change there will still be places suitable for agriculture. We have deserts and other places for all the wind power and solar. There is plenty of water (if we manage it correctly instead of spilling the majority of it onto grass and also evaporating it in the air in the process, (also spilling millions of gallons of it because someone pissed in it)).

We have huge forests, more good land than we know what to do with.


Perhaps we've left the corporations screw us over with no limit. The rich could be dethroned very easily, all we have to do is replace their stuff with our stuff. A new renaissance with 3-d printing coupled with ingenuity and knowledge to create working machines to replace anything. Where we choose wisely the corporations we deal with. Boycotting products that are created unethically and places that pay people bellow a minimum wage out of existence.

I see a lot of action taking place even now, but I don't know what to make of it. BTC is a step forward.
KonstantinosM
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October 11, 2014, 10:58:49 PM
 #11

I think their economy is going up.

I said that based on my local currency.
US $ crush my currency until Rp 12.000 now ( before was Rp 9.000 then Rp 11.900)

I'm so sad about this, My primary need's cost (food,hotel,etc) is getting higher and higher  Sad

That sucks. I came from Greece. When the euro was implemented the price of everything seemed to skyrocket continuously.
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October 11, 2014, 10:59:41 PM
 #12

End of QE in October=stronger dollar=deflation=economy turns down=new QE in 2015???
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October 11, 2014, 11:07:36 PM
Last edit: October 12, 2014, 09:35:01 AM by mmsen
 #13

It's hard for me to understand how we can fuck it up this badly for ourselves here in the united states. We have 300 million people in a gigantic country with good capabilities/minerals/strategic position.

People here could potentially become net producers for society and sustain themselves endlessly.

Even with climate change there will still be places suitable for agriculture. We have deserts and other places for all the wind power and solar. There is plenty of water (if we manage it correctly instead of spilling the majority of it onto grass and also evaporating it in the air in the process, (also spilling millions of gallons of it because someone pissed in it)).

We have huge forests, more good land than we know what to do with.


Perhaps we've left the corporations screw us over with no limit. The rich could be dethroned very easily, all we have to do is replace their stuff with our stuff. A new renaissance with 3-d printing coupled with ingenuity and knowledge to create working machines to replace anything. Where we choose wisely the corporations we deal with. Boycotting products that are created unethically and places that pay people bellow a minimum wage out of existence.

I see a lot of action taking place even now, but I don't know what to make of it. BTC is a step forward.

It's easy to realise why things have been so screwed up when you see how much bad information people are force fed.

There is too much focus on compliance and not enough on innovation which leads to the mess we have.

If there was a time to 'dethrone the rich' it should have come six years ago. Sadly 'Occupy Wall St.' was a joke, from the beginning. The people involved had been fed such a hearty diet of obedience that they did not know how to rebel in the face of oppression and mistreatment.
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October 11, 2014, 11:33:01 PM
 #14

Let's be clear. I'm a trader and the first thing is you're looking for trouble asking on an internet forum for trading tips.

Here's my hypothesis:

- stock market in a topping out pattern for last 6 months.. markets usually top out when they stagnate at the end of a large advance. usually the break is sharp and swift

- entire advance since 2012 has been a false break out of the S&P, the channel runs from 2010-2012 until the break out. now we've got a retracement back into the channel and below it. that's gonna be a sharp and swift decline

- we've got some days coming up of 10-20% down moves in the S&P

- many many social signals of the S&P topping out are circulating. one is, the belief that "if everyone believes a bubble, its not a bubble". Try this: "if everyone believes that if everyone believes a bubble, its not a bubble, then it IS a bubble"

in short, its clear the economic recovery is a paper recovery with no fundamental change in people's wealth. get your short positions in place and look out below

TLDR;

Next few weeks gonna be interesting

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October 12, 2014, 02:59:52 AM
 #15

End of QE in October=stronger dollar=deflation=economy turns down=new QE in 2015???
The way things are looking QE will likely end up having to continue. Just before the 2012 election, QE was extended to make the stock market shoot up higher to help get president Obama reelected (most economists and onlookers were almost universally predicting that QE would not get extended because the fed is suppose to be an independent agency and extending QE at the time would strongly benefit Obama). I would suspect that something similar would happen this election cycle to help the liberals keep the senate (which will hopefully not work)

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October 12, 2014, 01:52:25 PM
 #16

Still look good. But the economy of China is coming up really fast.
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October 12, 2014, 02:18:14 PM
 #17

Still look good. But the economy of China is coming up really fast.

Hmm maybe you read about that 3-4 months ago.
Still thinking China Economic Growing Up  this time Grin ?

World Economic is not good at this time , its like a time bomb.
And that mean US economy will going down too , but not in massive scale.

Corruption, embezzlement, fraud, these are all characteristics which exist everywhere.
It is regrettably the way human nature functions, whether we like it or not.
What successful economies do is keep it to a minimum. No one has ever eliminated any of that stuff.
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October 12, 2014, 02:48:10 PM
 #18

The Chinese are having to do what the Western nations have been doing for the past seven years to keep its economy moving forward.

Lots of money is being thrown at so called 'Public works'.

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October 12, 2014, 03:07:32 PM
 #19

Down in flames soon enough:

De-dollarizatiin globally by China, Russia, and other nations establishing their own trade agreements in anything but Dollars. Moves to kill the Petrodollar are all around, which is about the only thing that gives US currency any value at all. I don't put it past China to re-back their currency on the massive amount of gold they have sucked up over the last few years, and introduce the Petroyuan. If that happens the US is lost.

Massively, ridiculously large bubbles in assets, stocks, government debt, student debt, sub-prime auto debt, housing, basically everything, thanks to Federal Reserve QE pumping of the currency supply. Doing this has never worked in recorded history to correct a faltering economy, it just props it up until it collapses under its own weight.

Global economies are now so interconnected what affects them affects us too.

There no chance in hell the US economy will just magically be saved. The ultimate correction is coming, and it will be absolutely painful for anyone not prepared. I just hope my investments today in cryptocurrencies and metals help me hedge the fallout. Fiat currency is a liability.

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October 12, 2014, 08:06:20 PM
 #20

Is the US economy going up or down?

It is going up because of energetic. That "shale gas" that is forbidden to do in most of Europe, is pumping USA economy. Without it recovery after 2008 crysis would be much much harder if succeed at all.
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