Provably fair gambling sites

[birdcat90]

the only thing that i know is Primedice, just dice and new dice that just launched looks like primedice but hope its work like that too

its so hard to find site that really fair, at least some will d0 tricky things

[goose20]

If i write a simulation using martingale i will eventually bust, and that would happen with any other strategy, why dont you try it yourself, your reasoning is incorrect not mine, the ones that dont will bust the house? People are greedy, for example the guy who won 7k btc on just-dice and ended up loosing, people its always greedy and thats why a 0% house edge casino would still win

Ok, let's do it -- a simple simulation of a greedy player who never stops gambling (unless he busts):

Code:

var startingBankroll = 100;
var bet = 1;


while(true) {
	var bankroll = startingBankroll;

	for (var i = 1; bankroll > 0; ++i) {

		bankroll += Math.random() < 0.5 ? bet : -bet;
		
		if (i % 100000000 === 0)
			console.log('Player has made', i , 'bets at a profit of:', bankroll-startingBankroll, ' BTC');
	}
	console.log('PLAYER BUST!');
}

Now run that, and watch as the vast majority of players will bust. But occasionally you'll get to a real gem like this guy:

Player has made 2300000000 bets at a profit of: 161962  BTC
Player has made 2400000000 bets at a profit of: 175434  BTC
Player has made 2500000000 bets at a profit of: 195960  BTC
Player has made 2600000000 bets at a profit of: 207738  BTC
Player has made 2700000000 bets at a profit of: 205418  BTC
Player has made 2800000000 bets at a profit of: 209382  BTC
Player has made 2900000000 bets at a profit of: 206398  BTC
Player has made 3000000000 bets at a profit of: 217148  BTC
Player has made 3100000000 bets at a profit of: 237032  BTC
Player has made 3200000000 bets at a profit of: 251848  BTC
Player has made 3300000000 bets at a profit of: 248634  BTC
Player has made 3400000000 bets at a profit of: 252256  BTC
Player has made 3500000000 bets at a profit of: 251060  BTC
Player has made 3600000000 bets at a profit of: 260898  BTC
Player has made 3700000000 bets at a profit of: 281134  BTC
Player has made 3800000000 bets at a profit of: 294792  BTC
Player has made 3900000000 bets at a profit of: 291088  BTC
Player has made 4000000000 bets at a profit of: 295030  BTC
Player has made 4100000000 bets at a profit of: 295540  BTC
Player has made 4200000000 bets at a profit of: 304886  BTC
Player has made 4300000000 bets at a profit of: 323828  BTC
Player has made 4400000000 bets at a profit of: 337964  BTC
Player has made 4500000000 bets at a profit of: 334380  BTC
Player has made 4600000000 bets at a profit of: 338690  BTC

You really think the casino can handle billions of more bets, hoping it can make its hundreds of thousands of bitcoins back? And do you honestly think a casino would be willing to expose itself to unbounded liability for 0 expected profit?! It doesn't work, never has, never will.

But perhaps, what we'll see is bet-match-making where 0% house edge is actually feasible. That way players can play with 0-edge, and casinos aren't the counter-party

I dont understand that at all, what is that player using? Martingale? And how is he making 4 bilion bets?

I'm no coder, but the code seems straightforward to follow... the player starts with 100 and bets 1 each go at 50%.

This player has not yet busted and is up 338k after 46 billion bets.

The point is espringe is correct in his analysis and his explanation.  

People have it ingrained in their heads that 'the house always wins'. This is due to a house edge, even if its 0.01%. No casino could survive offering only 0% games.

[Bardman]

If i write a simulation using martingale i will eventually bust, and that would happen with any other strategy, why dont you try it yourself, your reasoning is incorrect not mine, the ones that dont will bust the house? People are greedy, for example the guy who won 7k btc on just-dice and ended up loosing, people its always greedy and thats why a 0% house edge casino would still win

Ok, let's do it -- a simple simulation of a greedy player who never stops gambling (unless he busts):

Code:

var startingBankroll = 100;
var bet = 1;


while(true) {
	var bankroll = startingBankroll;

	for (var i = 1; bankroll > 0; ++i) {

		bankroll += Math.random() < 0.5 ? bet : -bet;
		
		if (i % 100000000 === 0)
			console.log('Player has made', i , 'bets at a profit of:', bankroll-startingBankroll, ' BTC');
	}
	console.log('PLAYER BUST!');
}

Now run that, and watch as the vast majority of players will bust. But occasionally you'll get to a real gem like this guy:

Player has made 2300000000 bets at a profit of: 161962  BTC
Player has made 2400000000 bets at a profit of: 175434  BTC
Player has made 2500000000 bets at a profit of: 195960  BTC
Player has made 2600000000 bets at a profit of: 207738  BTC
Player has made 2700000000 bets at a profit of: 205418  BTC
Player has made 2800000000 bets at a profit of: 209382  BTC
Player has made 2900000000 bets at a profit of: 206398  BTC
Player has made 3000000000 bets at a profit of: 217148  BTC
Player has made 3100000000 bets at a profit of: 237032  BTC
Player has made 3200000000 bets at a profit of: 251848  BTC
Player has made 3300000000 bets at a profit of: 248634  BTC
Player has made 3400000000 bets at a profit of: 252256  BTC
Player has made 3500000000 bets at a profit of: 251060  BTC
Player has made 3600000000 bets at a profit of: 260898  BTC
Player has made 3700000000 bets at a profit of: 281134  BTC
Player has made 3800000000 bets at a profit of: 294792  BTC
Player has made 3900000000 bets at a profit of: 291088  BTC
Player has made 4000000000 bets at a profit of: 295030  BTC
Player has made 4100000000 bets at a profit of: 295540  BTC
Player has made 4200000000 bets at a profit of: 304886  BTC
Player has made 4300000000 bets at a profit of: 323828  BTC
Player has made 4400000000 bets at a profit of: 337964  BTC
Player has made 4500000000 bets at a profit of: 334380  BTC
Player has made 4600000000 bets at a profit of: 338690  BTC

You really think the casino can handle billions of more bets, hoping it can make its hundreds of thousands of bitcoins back? And do you honestly think a casino would be willing to expose itself to unbounded liability for 0 expected profit?! It doesn't work, never has, never will.

But perhaps, what we'll see is bet-match-making where 0% house edge is actually feasible. That way players can play with 0-edge, and casinos aren't the counter-party

I dont understand that at all, what is that player using? Martingale? And how is he making 4 bilion bets?

I'm no coder, but the code seems straightforward to follow... the player starts with 100 and bets 1 each go at 50%.

This player has not yet busted and is up 338k after 46 billion bets.

The point is espringe is correct in his analysis and his explanation.  

People have it ingrained in their heads that 'the house always wins'. This is due to a house edge, even if its 0.01%. No casino could survive offering only 0% games.

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

[oldmate]

You can browse a list of nearly all Bitcoin casinos on TheBitcoinStrip.com and filter by "provably fair" up the top right.

[a1choi]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

[Bardman]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

What do you mean double his coins? Double 1 btc 17.6 times? Like 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 ... ? Because if thats what you saying it would be impossible since casinos have a max bet so i still dont see how that is possible unless you explain yourself better

[a1choi]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

What do you mean double his coins? Double 1 btc 17.6 times? Like 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 ... ? Because if thats what you saying it would be impossible since casinos have a max bet so i still dont see how that is possible unless you explain yourself better

Looks like i didn't look at the simulation code.  The code basically does a bet of 1 for each round (thus satisfying any concerns about max bet limits).  And thus, the bettor was able to get a profit of 200k with only bets of 1.  This might seem impossible, but it clearly isn't.   I'm sure someone with better math skills that I have can figure out the probability of this happening, and it clearly is > 0.

The probability of this happening is much much smaller than 1/200000, but still larger than 0.

TLDR Minuscule probability doesn't mean impossible.

[havecoch]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

It is far fetched if you consider the total number of total possibilities that exist and he would have to hit that streak on the first bet.

[a1choi]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

It is far fetched if you consider the total number of total possibilities that exist and he would have to hit that streak on the first bet.

it's far fetched to believe YOU will be the 1 out of 200k people to win in this scenario.  It isn't far fetched to believe that there WILL be 1 out of 200k people to do it.  as this is what the probabilities tell us.  (notice that in real life results, you'll have some factor of variance along with this mean)

[Bardman]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

It is far fetched if you consider the total number of total possibilities that exist and he would have to hit that streak on the first bet.

it's far fetched to believe YOU will be the 1 out of 200k people to win in this scenario.  It isn't far fetched to believe that there WILL be 1 out of 200k people to do it.  as this is what the probabilities tell us.  (notice that in real life results, you'll have some factor of variance along with this mean)

I still didnt understand what is he doing, what system is he using, could explain?

[Bardman]

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1.  The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000.  Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this.  Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

What do you mean double his coins? Double 1 btc 17.6 times? Like 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 ... ? Because if thats what you saying it would be impossible since casinos have a max bet so i still dont see how that is possible unless you explain yourself better

Looks like i didn't look at the simulation code.  The code basically does a bet of 1 for each round (thus satisfying any concerns about max bet limits).  And thus, the bettor was able to get a profit of 200k with only bets of 1.  This might seem impossible, but it clearly isn't.   I'm sure someone with better math skills that I have can figure out the probability of this happening, and it clearly is > 0.

The probability of this happening is much much smaller than 1/200000, but still larger than 0.

TLDR Minuscule probability doesn't mean impossible.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible

[a1choi]

I still didnt understand what is he doing, what system is he using, could explain?

He isn't using a system, he is flatbetting.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible

It's impossible for one person on one try.  But take a LOT of people trying this, and maybe one person will do it.  Thats the point.  That one person is not an impossibility, and if you are a casino operator, you will not want that possibility to happen.

[Bardman]

I still didnt understand what is he doing, what system is he using, could explain?

He isn't using a system, he is flatbetting.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible

It's impossible for one person on one try.  But take a LOT of people trying this, and maybe one person will do it.  Thats the point.  That one person is not an impossibility, and if you are a casino operator, you will not want that possibility to happen.

Do you know the chances of that happening? Winning 200.000 times more than loosing? With a 50/50? Calculate them and then you will realize how mistaken you were

[goose20]

I still didnt understand what is he doing, what system is he using, could explain?

He isn't using a system, he is flatbetting.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible

It's impossible for one person on one try.  But take a LOT of people trying this, and maybe one person will do it.  Thats the point.  That one person is not an impossibility, and if you are a casino operator, you will not want that possibility to happen.

Do you know the chances of that happening? Winning 200.000 times more than loosing? With a 50/50? Calculate them and then you will realize how mistaken you were

Seriously, are you trolling or what???

He has bet 46000000000... that's BILLION... times. He is only up 338000.

Calc 338k / 46 billion.  = 0.000007%.

 Now ask the question again, does it seem possible someone could be up only 7 after a massive 100000 bets. YES, seems easily possible to me... I seriously dont get why you think this would be so impossible.

Is it the big numbers that's confusing you?

[Tlee88]

I would recommend

1. Rollin.io
2. Bitzino

[rizkyhiw]

moneypot.com

primedice.com

satoshidice.com

luckyb.it

Just-dice.com

they're all provably fair, but their house edge varies from 0.5% to 1.9%. The house always wins anyway.

which one the most little house edge?
house edge take effect on our game?

Primedice have 0.9% house edge
And lucky.bit have about 1% house edge

If you need dice site with low house edge, then try SafeDice
They only have 0.5% House edge

i've played in luckybit, it was funny
primedice yeah its very famous around here.
oh really just 0.5%? but the site is legit? imean safedice legit?

[GannickusX]

I still didnt understand what is he doing, what system is he using, could explain?

He isn't using a system, he is flatbetting.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible

It's impossible for one person on one try.  But take a LOT of people trying this, and maybe one person will do it.  Thats the point.  That one person is not an impossibility, and if you are a casino operator, you will not want that possibility to happen.

Do you know the chances of that happening? Winning 200.000 times more than loosing? With a 50/50? Calculate them and then you will realize how mistaken you were

Seriously, are you trolling or what???

He has bet 46000000000... that's BILLION... times. He is only up 338000.

Calc 338k / 46 billion.  = 0.000007%.

 Now ask the question again, does it seem possible someone could be up only 7 after a massive 100000 bets. YES, seems easily possible to me... I seriously dont get why you think this would be so impossible.

Is it the big numbers that's confusing you?

First of all it is impossible for someone to make a billion bets, even a million its extremely hard so thats that, now if he were to make 1 million bets he would win 7 btc with a 0.000007% chance so yeah as you can see unless he finds a way to make billions of bets the 0% house edge casino would still win

[bitbink]

moneypot.com

primedice.com

satoshidice.com

luckyb.it

Just-dice.com

they're all provably fair, but their house edge varies from 0.5% to 1.9%. The house always wins anyway.

which one the most little house edge?
house edge take effect on our game?

Primedice have 0.9% house edge
And lucky.bit have about 1% house edge

If you need dice site with low house edge, then try SafeDice
They only have 0.5% House edge

And if you need site with 0% house edge, try BitBink