I see a whole lot of handwaving in this thread, and very little substance. But Mike makes a relevant point,
UPnP is a de-facto standard that's used by virtually all p2p software. The fact that it's even an option puts Bitcoin behind apps like Skype in terms of UI simplicity. It's definitely worth enabling it by default, at minimum.
The relevant question to me is: what
widely used software enables UPNP by default?
If UPNP is enabled by default on widely used software, as your post seems to indicate, then it seems reasonable that bitcoin may follow suit. I know plenty of P2P software
supports UPNP, but what about default-on?