Are you aware of the term value bets? Maybe you know what it is but you just do not know that it is called that. Well anyway, value bets are bets where their odds are a lot higher than the true probability. A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets. First is to get into smaller leagues. When the market is smaller, there are more room for error or mispriced lines. Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.
It's a big mistake to go to small leagues. Bookmakers there take higher margins, so even if it's easier to find value there, it's harder to make a profit from it because the distance between the bookmaker's estimated probability of an event and the estimated probability in your opinion becomes too big for you to always "pass" it with a profit.
In general it makes sense to look for value, but sometimes it can be profitable to place a bet because you have a booster or cashback, etc., i.e. even if the odds are formally against you there may be value there.
