Value bets

[kotajikikox]

Are you aware of the term value bets? Maybe you know what it is but you just do not know that it is called that. Well anyway, value bets are bets where their odds are a lot higher than the true probability. A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets. First is to get into smaller leagues. When the market is smaller, there are more room for error or mispriced lines. Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

[Fiatless]

High odds usually have a lower probability of happening but there can be mistakes sometimes. Value bet gives you an edge or advantage over bookmakers because the likelihood of such games playing is high due to errors. But identifying them might be difficult since it rarely happens. I don't like betting in the lower leagues because the rate of manipulations and match fixing might also be high. Even in these low leagues, it is not certain that you will win when you find value bets.

[Cointxz]

High odds usually have lower probability of happening.  I don't think value bet gives you any edge or advantage over bookmakers because the likeliness of such games playing is low. I don't like betting in the lower leagues because the rate of manipulations and match fixing might also be high. Even in these low leagues, it is not certain that you will win when you find value bets.

They consider it as an edge because bookie sometimes refer only to the majority pick for the odds placement while in reality the match is the opposite just because the underdog has influence.

Value bets is not easy to spot if you don’t have deeper knowledge on sports betting.

Btw choosing value bets on most of your bets will make your account restricted as some casino specifically mention it as unfair.

[Satofan44]

High odds usually have lower probability of happening.  

Not necessarily. Odds are not made by Gods, they are made by humans. Humans make mistakes.

I don't think value bet gives you any edge or advantage over bookmakers because the likeliness of such games playing is low.

You didn't understand his post. Value bets exist, they are rare but they do happen. It just means that the bookmaker miscalculated the odds compared to the true probability of something happening. Of course it happens, humans make mistakes all the time it doesn't matter if money is involved or not.

Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

Never trust the odds. How many amazing slips have been lost because a player decided to add a small odds game or two. I know many cases where big money was not won because of this.

[Charles-Tim]

I have seen valued odds before. I went for some like 2 odds and I won. Sometimes, do not be fooled because you will go for the value bet but you will later realize that the team you bet on is not using their main players. Or you can noticed that the opponent later won or draw even if the team use all their players. This has happened to me like 3 times before.

[joeperry]

Oh so that's that's what you called that. Yes, I'm familiar with that, if you are into small league especially in esports and you know the stats and capabilities of the teams you'll know which one is good and which one has the advantage and honestly some of the odds is really higher especially when the underdog team goes into the major league and that's one of the things I'm looking at, though it's not guaranteed that it will win but the odds were literally insane, there's one time that the odds is around 12 and the team actually won.

[Russlenat]

very similar to this post.  Implied probability and True probability.

The key here is just to look for value. We don’t just focus on the opening odds but actually look at the game itself.
Check if the odds line is overvalued or undervalued. If you know the true odds, that’s where you find a value bet especially if you end up winning on it.

[Japinat]

This isn’t easy, but I agree there’s always a value bet, you just have to be spot on.
In sports betting, the quality of your pick is more important than the quantity.

Honestly though, even if I’m aware of this, I haven’t really applied it in my own gambling. Most of the time I just follow my instinct, and that’s why I can’t say I’m active like a pro. Maybe it’s also because doing it “the right way” feels boring, but I believe if I really want to be profitable, then boring is the way to go.

[bitbollo]

This is an interesting argument for experienced gamblers.
Some players are only trying to find these bets (many years ago there was also a guy here in the forum posting these bets).
But there are many hidden threath... you need a "deep pocket". It's hard to bet dozens of time with no wins.
You had to be a real expert! Being able to beat the bookmakers mmm that's not something for all.
It's more complicated be CONSISTENT during the time!

[danherbias07]

The thing about value bets is that they are tough to find. Some even avoid this kind of strategy because it's prone to manipulation. You say they are mostly in small leagues, that's where rigging mostly happens, so it's best if we either avoid them or have someone inside that will feed us the results.

When that happens, they are not value bets anymore. You might lose your bets because someone or some group is behind the scenes to control everything and that's also why there are fewer gamblers who place their bets there. I'd rather take the risk in professional sports because rigging can hardly happen.

[Doan9269]

Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

Taking sport bets as an example, there's a way we can get to outsmart the bookmaker when we are considering for the odds given on the match selection we made, if we have more better understanding of how we could circumvent the situation for our own good, it's going to be a better experience on us because they could actually be wrong sometimes and we take advantage of playing games the probability of winning or losing is high in opposite direction to what the bookmaker expect for giving odds, in so doing, we are going to take advantage and this is also if we are the type that often gambles and also learnt how to pay attention.

[Agbamoni]

Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability.

This is so true, and I have observed it a few time. Lower divisions and unpopular leagues, there are advantages of over 1.5 odds that are higher if you compare it with the regular top leagues.

With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts.

You can score a few payouts but not consistent, sometimes the value bets can be negative, you get a bad luck and it goes against you.

[Floxynice]

Are you aware of the term value bets? Maybe you know what it is but you just do not know that it is called that. Well anyway, value bets are bets where their odds are a lot higher than the true probability. A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets. First is to get into smaller leagues. When the market is smaller, there are more room for error or mispriced lines. Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

You know, I have always known what value betting is but never knew that it has a name and is called "value betting", thanks to you Many do not understand that value betting exist, they just base their betting skills on intuition and favorite team thing without getting to identify when the odds are  overpriced.

I agree with you about identifying the odds in small leagues. In these small leagues, we don't get thesame level of accuracy we get in those big leagues, so, it is quite common to spot these errors that gives the bettors edge over the bookmakers.

Value betting may seem quite easy to win, but it is not as easy as it seems.

[mcdouglasx]

I know that there may be errors in the probabilities of matches in the sports field, but is there really a real probability? Generally, the probabilities in bets are close to a point close to reality, but they are never exact, there are too many factors involved to be able to calculate reality, that is the complicated part when choosing our plays, I also do not recommend using the probabilities that the casino gives you as the only reference, since this can be an illusion and make you make decisions that do not represent reality, such as teams with overwhelming favoritism in the bets, and then they end up losing.

[Btcdeybodi]

I have come across these value bets and it's just as you said, those leagues that people do not gamble much that is where you will see a team that is very strong will be given high odds against a mediocre team in same league. I have won a bet with this value bets and the odds that was given to the stronger side was so high, i can't remember the exact odd again. There was even a time that someone discovered a value bet and shared it with gamblers and people started staking massively and it seems like the bookies found out and started reducing the odd till it got to an considerable level. These value bets can most times be found after the European league seasons have ended and the market is left with those leagues that people don't bet frequently and it can also be found in junior leagues.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Are you aware of the term value bets?

Yes, although what you're referring to is sports betting. In poker, it's situations where you have the nuts (the best possible hand) or you're sure you have a better hand than your opponent and you bet to get value for your hand.

The thing about value bets is that they are tough to find.

Given that the percentage of profitable long-term sports bettors is very low, around 5% or less, I believe so too.

[giammangiato]

Are you aware of the term value bets? Maybe you know what it is but you just do not know that it is called that. Well anyway, value bets are bets where their odds are a lot higher than the true probability. A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets. First is to get into smaller leagues. When the market is smaller, there are more room for error or mispriced lines. Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

Without knowing it, I've made my value bets. Let's just say I adopted this way of playing because I thought I was a strange person, but instead it's used as a strategy. Crazy, you never stop learning.
In my ignorance and total luck with a very low probability of winning, I've also guessed some big bets correctly, bringing me a good result with a very low stake, but most of the time they're difficult wins.
I confess that I do this not only with the lower leagues but also with the top division ones (achieving decent results), but I have a lot of fun.

[Wapfika]

I have come across these value bets and it's just as you said, those leagues that people do not gamble much that is where you will see a team that is very strong will be given high odds against a mediocre team in same league. I have won a bet with this value bets and the odds that was given to the stronger side was so high, i can't remember the exact odd again. There was even a time that someone discovered a value bet and shared it with gamblers and people started staking massively and it seems like the bookies found out and started reducing the odd till it got to an considerable level. These value bets can most times be found after the European league seasons have ended and the market is left with those leagues that people don't bet frequently and it can also be found in junior leagues.

The only downside on betting with lower league is the house edge and odds value is very low compared to popular league.

Bookie already assume that lower league has low bettor so they make the odds lower and unattractive. Also I notice that games on lower league is sometimes predictable compared to popular league because the team involved is composed of low level skill which means there’s less competition happening.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

There are gamblers who don't care to know how much they have spent gambling, once they are able to get fun and make enough satisfaction from it by playing different games of their choice, since we already know and have it in mind that gambling is all about fun, but some are not in for the fun, instead the chances they can take to make profits while gambling.

[Maslate]

The only downside on betting with lower league is the house edge and odds value is very low compared to popular league.

Bookie already assume that lower league has low bettor so they make the odds lower and unattractive. Also I notice that games on lower league is sometimes predictable compared to popular league because the team involved is composed of low level skill which means there’s less competition happening.

I can agree with that. In lower leagues I often see odds like 1.85 on games where both teams actually have an even chance. That’s already around 15% juice compared to the 10% standard average.

But there are also local bookies who offer better odds, you’re lucky if you have one in your country.
Not only do you get the best odds, but since you’re more familiar with the league, that could also give you a better chance to win.