[POLL] when will the panic buying begin?

[smoothie]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

I don't get it.  When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins?  

If it is more difficult...do you think it will be more easy?

Think about it...

Doesn't the difficulty reflect the amount of computing power in use at the time?  
So if the block reward is halved, mining is no longer profitable, so less people mine and computing power goes down until difficulty reaches about half of what it was, where people will then start mining again because it's profitable?
Perhaps this is not 50% of what it is now but I'd assume it's a significant decrease.

Not necessary. At the current price level, the miners can continue mining with a comfortable profit margin. That is without considering the prospect of bitcoin becoming a widely used mechanism for financial transactions. Since, the difficulty did not substantially decrease even when the prices was hovering around $2.00, it is very unlikely we will see any substantial decrease after the reward is halved. Whether it will go substantially up or not, that is still uncertain. My feeling is, with the availability of ASICs, difficulty will go up in the future.

You think that halving the reward will not impact the amount of people mining?

Block reward halving could also increase the exchange rate price especially since ASICS will be hitting the mining market around the same time before and after. Kind of like the perfect bull-ish storm for bitcoin.

Just my opinion though...

[cheat_2_win]

Not necessary. At the current price level, the miners can continue mining with a comfortable profit margin. That is without considering the prospect of bitcoin becoming a widely used mechanism for financial transactions. Since, the difficulty did not substantially decrease even when the prices was hovering around $2.00, it is very unlikely we will see any substantial decrease after the reward is halved. Whether it will go substantially up or not, that is still uncertain. My feeling is, with the availability of ASICs, difficulty will go up in the future.

You think that halving the reward will not impact the amount of people mining?

Of course, halving the reward will half the amount people mine. Irrespective of the difficulty, the rate of mining is constant. I am only saying that there may not be a substantial drop in difficulty after the reward is halved if the price remains at current level. If the price goes up, the difficulty will go up as the profit margin will be larger.

[RodeoX]

Panic buying?? where?? is it to late to get in?? Crap! Someone take my money, I'll pay any price!!

[westkybitcoins]

after those who sold into the rally get over their initial euphoria and get a strong visceral sensation
that the dollar ain't what it used to be.

I doubt that there will be much panic buying because of reward halfing.

What counts is what the ASICS owners do with their coins.

My mindset has always been, if I mined, I'd like to save all the coins, but I'd need to sell a portion to pay for the electricity anyway, so I probably would have sold more than necessary.

But now with the electrical costs being so low, I can afford to take whatever meager amount I mine and just save it all away.

I suspect that, in general, ASICs miners will be doing far more saving than GPU miners do.

[smoothie]

after those who sold into the rally get over their initial euphoria and get a strong visceral sensation
that the dollar ain't what it used to be.

I doubt that there will be much panic buying because of reward halfing.

What counts is what the ASICS owners do with their coins.

My mindset has always been, if I mined, I'd like to save all the coins, but I'd need to sell a portion to pay for the electricity anyway, so I probably would have sold more than necessary.

But now with the electrical costs being so low, I can afford to take whatever meager amount I mine and just save it all away.

I suspect that, in general, ASICs miners will be doing far more saving than GPU miners do.

+1 And perhaps GPU miners will have to close shop or find alternatives to keep mining.

[proudhon]

after those who sold into the rally get over their initial euphoria and get a strong visceral sensation
that the dollar ain't what it used to be.

I doubt that there will be much panic buying because of reward halfing.

What counts is what the ASICS owners do with their coins.

My mindset has always been, if I mined, I'd like to save all the coins, but I'd need to sell a portion to pay for the electricity anyway, so I probably would have sold more than necessary.

But now with the electrical costs being so low, I can afford to take whatever meager amount I mine and just save it all away.

I suspect that, in general, ASICs miners will be doing far more saving than GPU miners do.

+1 And perhaps GPU miners will have to close shop or find alternatives to keep mining.

LTC?

[8up]

bump (for sentiment comparisons)

[r0ach]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1200114.0