Halving Bitcoin Reward Unlikely to Cause Price Surge

[streazight]

Okay so everything boils down to supply and demand in the end I think. If the block reward is cut in half but Bitcoin will have finite amount of coins at 21 million in 2140, will this slowing down of coin release make the price go up? So if we assume that, theoretically, not everyone is selling their coins owned before the halving and holding for a couple of years to see where the price is going to end up, this means we will have fewer coins on the market so if there are 'new' buyers looking to buy Bitcoin they will create a bigger demand, no? I am not saying the coins in cold storage will not enter the market at some point but they won't be used in circulation for a while.

Right now there are sufficient buyers in the market so that the price will  stay the same 

[BitconAssociation]

...
I'm not trying to argue that we *will* see a spike in price, rather, that the effect of a block reward halving is one of many factors that could contribute to higher prices. It's possible that expectations have overbid prices now and that, as a result, they'll actually fall. But, over the long term, prices should average higher with a reward of 25 than they would have with a block reward of 50.

Since we're clearly not getting anywhere, how about some data to ponder? Here's Litecoin halvening, I think Aug. 26 is when it happened.

http://s32.postimg.org/xtvi2yzs5/Capture.png

Would you be able to point to Teh Halvening on the chart if not for the helpful vertical line?
Why did the price not go up, as the halvening faithful predicted?

Let's give analogies one more chance, let's imagine again.
The Princess (from our last game) issued a decree: "On Jan. 1, 2017, Princess Satolestia will buy all your Bit coins @ $10k/BTC."

Taking into account that you are the cunning and rational trader I know you to be, wat do?
Do you wait until Jan. 1, or do you start buying now?
If you chose to wait until Jan 1, why? If not, why?

While we have to imagine that Princess never lies, we can be 100% sure that Teh Halvening will happen, because algorithmically determined and maths. It's been announced back in 2009, and will surprise no one who cares

Bawww!

^Sorry ur platinum mad, bro, didn't mean to pop ur bubble.
Just go back 2 wat u waz doin' pl0x

http://opioids.com/images/opiumsmoker.jpg

@--Encrypted--: how many people actually use BTC "not just for trading"? How is LTC fundamentally different from BTC?
P.S. Feel free to play my game above, see boldface

[--Encrypted--]

@--Encrypted--: how many people actually use BTC "not just for trading"? How is LTC fundamentally different from BTC?
P.S. Feel free to play my game above, see boldface

LTC have much less adoption than BTC so once it gets a bit of a spike, people are likely to sell all their coins to secure profit. same with BTC but because it have more adoption more people will buy bitcoins, and when the price spiked there's not always the need to sell to secure profit because you can buy things with it anyway.

just my 2 sats.

[Razick]

...
I'm not trying to argue that we *will* see a spike in price, rather, that the effect of a block reward halving is one of many factors that could contribute to higher prices. It's possible that expectations have overbid prices now and that, as a result, they'll actually fall. But, over the long term, prices should average higher with a reward of 25 than they would have with a block reward of 50.

Since we're clearly not getting anywhere, how about some data to ponder? Here's Litecoin halvening, I think Aug. 26 is when it happened.



Would you be able to point to Teh Halvening on the chart if not for the helpful vertical line?
Why did the price not go up, as the halvening faithful predicted?

Let's give analogies one more chance, let's imagine again.
The Princess (from our last game) issued a decree: "On Jan. 1, 2017, Princess Satolestia will buy all your Bit coins @ $10k/BTC."

Taking into account that you are the cunning and rational trader I know you to be, wat do?
Do you wait until Jan. 1, or do you start buying now?
If you chose to wait until Jan 1, why? If not, why?

While we have to imagine that Princess never lies, we can be 100% sure that Teh Halvening will happen, because algorithmically determined and maths. It's been announced back in 2009, and will surprise no one who cares

Yeah, I agree, that particular piece of evidence does not support the "price surge" that is the topic of this thread. That said...

But, over the long term, prices should average higher with a reward of 25 than they would have with a block reward of 50.

And look what happened when the dust settled:



Nothing to get exited about, but I would argue that the equilibrium shifted slightly higher.

As for your scenario, I believe you are suggesting that the halving is already priced in. I think you are right for the most part, but it may be only partly (mostly?) priced in due to the time value of money and the risk of holding Bitcoin to that point.

I'm not really sure what the disagreement is since we both have modest expectations about the halving. I may be slightly more bullish than you, but I think in general we are on the same page.

[maokoto]

I agree with the view of original poster, but miners may decide to stay in and sell their bitcoins much higher too.