Halving Bitcoin Reward Unlikely to Cause Price Surge

[DimensionZ]

The fact that the miners are paid less while you need more is what make them sell their bitcoins at an higher price and thus lead to a price rise.

they don't need more they are currently earning 4 times their consumption, they are safe at the current price even afte the halving

Do you mean the big Chinese farms are making 4 times what they are paying in electric bills? But is this in a year or they can pull such a profit every month? I thought only people doing alt coin mining can earn such profits by targeting pumped coins before the bubble bursts. I wonder if we could achieve similar results if we tried to do a mining operation in Europe for Bitcoin or we will break even at most?

[raphma]

it's not only psychological... it's about mining costs too.
Basically, if the hashpower doesnt change the difficulty wont change. If the difficulty doesnt change, the mining costs will remain the same.

Nobody want to do the same job for half salary.... the way to balance that is simple(half reward? doble price).

If you dont belive the price will double, then you're blind.... it's already pumping, it will keep rising till the halving and then might have a little dump.

The fact that the miners are paid less while you need more is what make them sell their bitcoins at an higher price and thus lead to a price rise.

they don't need more they are currently earning 4 times their consumption, they are safe at the current price even afte the halving

and who doesnt need more money? dont be naive... doesnt matter if they need or not, they are receing some money now and they PROBABLY wont to do for half price after the halving.

[franky1]

Do you mean the big Chinese farms are making 4 times what they are paying in electric bills? But is this in a year or they can pull such a profit every month? I thought only people doing alt coin mining can earn such profits by targeting pumped coins before the bubble bursts. I wonder if we could achieve similar results if we tried to do a mining operation in Europe for Bitcoin or we will break even at most?

when antpool manufactures a ASIC. it costs them $200 but they RETAIL it for $1000.
for every 1 asic they sell for retail price to their competition, they are literally getting 4 rigs for free themselves..

imagine that. no ASIC cost and 4x more profitable then the competition

[Amph]

The fact that the miners are paid less while you need more is what make them sell their bitcoins at an higher price and thus lead to a price rise.

they don't need more they are currently earning 4 times their consumption, they are safe at the current price even afte the halving

Do you mean the big Chinese farms are making 4 times what they are paying in electric bills? But is this in a year or they can pull such a profit every month? I thought only people doing alt coin mining can earn such profits by targeting pumped coins before the bubble bursts. I wonder if we could achieve similar results if we tried to do a mining operation in Europe for Bitcoin or we will break even at most?

yes it's what i mean, hell some chinese farm are paying less than 5 cent per hour for their electricity

go in the calcualtor and you can see that 1 single anminer produce 0.013 around $6, and consume only 1200w, which is $0.06 per hour = 1.44 per day vs 6 per day = 4:1 ratio

[franky1]

If you dont belive the price will double, then you're blind.... it's already pumping, it will keep rising till the halving and then might have a little dump.

the price rises currently happening before the halving are just speculative.. wait until after the halving.. then you will see the real prices rises due to the impact of pool income change

[raphma]

If you dont belive the price will double, then you're blind.... it's already pumping, it will keep rising till the halving and then might have a little dump.

the price rises currently happening before the halving are just speculative.. wait until after the halving.. then you will see the real prices rises due to the impact of pool income change

Well... im pretty sure of one thing. Bitcoin wont stay the same.
Or it will double the price, or it will die...

The scenario, in my opinion, will be like that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NgFIj9dBkQ

Im not promoting this, i just have the same opinion as said in there.

[BitconAssociation]

lol i am starting to laugh at everyone trying and failing so hard to deny that the bitcoin price is going to go up.

.. but when they brought hitler into the debate.. then it becomes apparent they have no more rational options left to persuade people to their way of thinking.

"bitcoin Association"

you would have had much a better point if you mentioned the inception of ASICS around a year later as the reason why the price went over $400 in late 2013.. but can you explain the cause of the price movement from november 2012-spring 2013.. without a hitler reference

It's difficult for me to relate to your mindset, so it's hard for me to offer you analogies you'd find compelling.

You seem to think that correlation is causation, and that "if A happened after B (price went up sometime after the halvening), A is causally linked to B (the price went up because of the halvening).

This is not the case, just like it is not the case that Mashka Kobilova started the Great Patriotic War by getting drunk.

November 2012(pre halving) $10/btc
February 2013 (post halving)$20/btc

On June 21, 1941, Mashka Kobilova got so drunk she didn't show up for work and got fired.
On June 22, 1941, Hitler invaded Russia.
From this we can infer many things, not least of which is that
1. Mashka Kobilova caused The Great Patriotic War, and
2. If Mashka Kobilova gets drunk again, expect WW3; kiss your butt goodbye.

Even though she did get drunk, as you can see above. And right before the war started .
Yeah, blind drunk on samagon, and BLAMO! War starts the next day.
Teh Halvening, tho, the causal link is nowhere as obvious. Can't even be seen on the price chart without someone drawing a line
http://s32.postimg.org/3xfvgpcdh/Capture.png

So yeah, my Mashka Kobilova analogy works just fine for many, though not for everyone.
Not for my cat, who feels he's transcended mundane logic, and not for you, with your nutty idee fixe that you're "a little teapot/short and stout"  BTC price is guaranteed to go up after Teh Halvening

[franky1]

Teh Halvening, tho, the causal link is nowhere as obvious. Can't even be seen on the price chart without someone drawing a line

it is obvious..

when you solve a block. you cannot spend it instantly.. firstly there is the 100 confirmation period for coins that are freshly minted. so thats 1 day (november 29th).
then people dont withdraw their costs by the minute. most farms pay salaries/bills monthly.. not the hour. so ofcourse you are not going to see a sudden rise the very minute the reward halved in 2012.(though there was a small rise)

but there are alot of correlations and relationships..

unlike your hitler analogy where one event has no connection to the other (i know thats the subtle point you were making)

but if you think about the fact that the funds were not spendable until nearly december.. we didnt see a price drop due to a sudden scare of needing to grab fiat .. so the price did not tank on the first says of december..

what did happen was when their bills were due the following month(after christmas). they realised they needed to push the market value up.. and so thats what happened.

here ill show u a chart and colour it in


blue block: december lull.. people concentrating more on christmas and new year. with funds they already cashed out in november
green block: bills have arrived and its time to pay them.. now they start to act

once you see that there are many factors to think about. such as salaries paid early in november to cover the christmas newyear period so people dont need to worry about loss of earnings/bonus over christmas..

knowing that bills wont start coming in until after christmas,

you will start to see the correlation. of why there was a Lull (stangnant delay) in december.

but hey, lets hear another analogy of yours that has no correlation and no background information that makes common sense..

[BitconAssociation]

^^TL;DR: ♫ Here is my handle/here is my spout ♫

I can't possibly convince you, that's the very essence of idee fixe: everything else must be reconciled with it, and everything appears to you as proof of your correctness re. you being a short & stout teapot.

If reality fails to comply, it won't be due to your *not* being a teapot, but the willful blindness/ignorance of others, and possibly nefarious forces (see: banksters & their lapdogs, the statist jackboots) brainwashing the sheeple into not accepting your teapotty essence.

[franky1]

^ i think you need to go sober up.. come back to this debate after a good 12 hours rest and relaxation. and stay away from the alcohol or drugs.

then tomorrow try again using rational thought.

have a nice peaceful day

[BitconAssociation]

You like good pictures, kid?  See the little red box at the bottom left?

http://s32.postimg.org/6ga62sijp/Capture.png

yeah, that's where your Halvening pitcha below fits, that's the scale. Weird when you zoom out, huh?

https://i.imgur.com/RlL1Mdo.png

Hope (against hope) I've helped you put things into perspective
To reasonable people: Bitcoin is a purely speculative commodity. It's not like oil, which is consumed at a roughly predictable rate, so that cutting supply sends prices skyrocketing.

Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin demand is like demand for potato in a game of hot potato, or for seats in a musical chairs game, or for an ace in a game of Black Jack: People don't need to buy btc like they do oil and food -- they can simply *not buy* BTC & walk away when the game stops being fun. And move on to Ether, or BBQ coin, or whatever looks fun at the moment

[richkellj]

The supply of bitcoins in circulation is not changing,

Yes, it will. This is very precisely what the halving means. Actually, more than 3,200 BTC are mined every single day, after the halving, it will be down to about 1,600 new BTC per day. That's a huge difference!

So it means price will increase more as less  Coins can be mined

[odolvlobo]

The supply of bitcoins in circulation is not changing,

Yes, it will. This is very precisely what the halving means. Actually, more than 3,200 BTC are mined every single day, after the halving, it will be down to about 1,600 new BTC per day. That's a huge difference!

It is not a huge difference. Before the halving, the number of bitcoins increases by 0.024% each day. After the halving, the number of bitcoins will increase by 0.012% per day. A difference of 0.012% cannot be considered huge.

People that believe that the supply will decrease as a result of the halving are confusing supply with production. Supply and demand is a thing. Production and demand is not.

[Amph]

The supply of bitcoins in circulation is not changing,

Yes, it will. This is very precisely what the halving means. Actually, more than 3,200 BTC are mined every single day, after the halving, it will be down to about 1,600 new BTC per day. That's a huge difference!

It is not a huge difference. Before the halving, the number of bitcoins increases by 0.024% each day. After the halving, the number of bitcoins will increase by 0.012% per day. A difference of 0.012% cannot be considered huge.

People that believe that the supply will decrease as a result of the halving are confusing supply with production. Supply and demand is a thing. Production and demand is not.

$800k(1600, 1800 actually x 450) less dumping each day is not to underestimate either, it mean less pressure on the market, every 30 days $24M in bitcoin will not be dumped to pay electricity and new equipment for mining...

[Enotche]

Well, maybe it is. Past Halving caused the price increase, but because of panic future Halving the price of Bitcoin is growing right now. I think it all depends on the interest of people in Bitcoins.

[actmyname]

To OP. This is a way too mechanical view, what ignores the psychological impact of the halving.

In fct, the psychological impact is way bigger than any technical explanations you want to give it. The having is a celebration of Bitcoin every 4 years, and if it happens during a time where we are making solid progress technologically (segwit, schnorr sig, sidechains, lightning...) then you add in the inherent hype of halving, and the price rise is guaranteed.

The price rise is guaranteed... maybe. A price surge, up to the levels of doubling the price is unlikely to happen. Though the halving will affect day-to-day mining, let us remember that even halving the intake every day would not double the price instantly. That's not necessarily how coins are circulated. They aren't circulated directly from the blocks mined directly the day of.

[odolvlobo]

blue block: december lull.. people concentrating more on christmas and new year. with funds they already cashed out in november [/color]

franky1, your explanations are pure fantasy and speculation. You have no evidence to back up your claims. You say that the reason that there was no immediate rise at the first halving is due to people focused on Christmas. LOL. Good luck supporting that claim.

Here is evidence against your claim of the existence of a "december lull".

12/2010 - Price falls from $0.25 to $0.20, then rises to $0.30: +50% (preceded by -20%)
12/2011 - Price rises from $3.20 to $5.00: +56%
12/2012 - Price rises from $12.40 to $13.20: +6%  (post-halving) <---
12/2013 - Price drops from $1150 to $750: -35%
12/2014 - Price drops from $380 to $310: -18%
12/2015 - Price rises from $360 to $470, then falls to $430: +31% (followed by -9% )

There is no "december lull". If anything, the halving appears to have prevented a change in price instead of causing one.

[MingLee]

The supply of bitcoins in circulation is not changing,

Yes, it will. This is very precisely what the halving means. Actually, more than 3,200 BTC are mined every single day, after the halving, it will be down to about 1,600 new BTC per day. That's a huge difference!

It is not a huge difference. Before the halving, the number of bitcoins increases by 0.024% each day. After the halving, the number of bitcoins will increase by 0.012% per day. A difference of 0.012% cannot be considered huge.

People that believe that the supply will decrease as a result of the halving are confusing supply with production. Supply and demand is a thing. Production and demand is not.

It all comes down to how much it costs the miners to operate right now. If they need to start charging more to cover their costs, they'll start charging more. If the price is allowing for them to make pure profit right now, they might not change their selling cost at all.

[BitconAssociation]

It all comes down to how much it costs the miners to operate right now. If they need to start charging more to cover their costs, they'll start charging more. If the price is allowing for them to make pure profit right now, they might not change their selling cost at all.

How does a miner go about charging more? If they could charge more, why wouldn't they charge more now? Because charitable & pro bono?

[Amph]

blue block: december lull.. people concentrating more on christmas and new year. with funds they already cashed out in november [/color]

franky1, your explanations are pure fantasy and speculation. You have no evidence to back up your claims. You say that the reason that there was no immediate rise at the first halving is due to people focused on Christmas. LOL. Good luck supporting that claim.

Here is evidence against your claim of the existence of a "december lull".

12/2010 - Price falls from $0.25 to $0.20, then rises to $0.30: +50% (preceded by -20%)
12/2011 - Price rises from $3.20 to $5.00: +56%
12/2012 - Price rises from $12.40 to $13.20: +6%  (post-halving) <---
12/2013 - Price drops from $1150 to $750: -35%
12/2014 - Price drops from $380 to $310: -18%
12/2015 - Price rises from $360 to $470, then falls to $430: +31% (followed by -9% )

There is no "december lull". If anything, the halving appears to have prevented a change in price instead of causing one.

again none said that the increase must be on the same date of the halving, this is your assumption, which is wrong btw, the increase was there, around the halving, from 4 to 12, 3x increase