yes yes,
- altcoins are not in a bubble,
- their marketcap is real
- they are good and will grow
i just don't know why in the past 2 days the total marketcap of altcoins has declined -3,860,900,000 USD and that is a big ass 14% decline.
i also don't know why this "pattern" repeats itself each year.
everything is very real in altcoin market. yes yes.
There is no fundamental difference between bitcoin and "alt coins". All these are highly speculative assets, and in as much as the market becomes efficient, their evolution will be entirely unpredictable and not understandable. Don't make a mistake, bitcoin is in the same boat. From the moment that big smart money enters the scene, it is not bound to emotional attachment, and optimizes the greater-fool game. In the same way as in the complex derivatives market, towards which the crypto scene is evolving, ideally nothing is predictable. When you are sure it will go up, it will come down, and vice versa. Because otherwise, there was an opportunity that smart money would have missed, which is against the hypothesis of it being smart.
This is nothing else but the "efficient market hypothesis": all there is to know is already in the price (except for inside knowledge).
I think the market is not there yet. There is still too much asymmetry between, for instance, bitcoin, and all the rest, which makes things still somewhat previsible. When you are sure that bitcoin will "go to the moon", for sure, it will crash. When you are sure that altcoins will take over, for sure they will retract. Until all of this becomes perfectly chaotic (except maybe for some insiders).
It is very simple: if smart money were 100% convinced that bitcoin is going to, say, $500 000 in a few years, then it wouldn't miss the opportunity in flowing massively in bitcoin. To the claim that "no, they are misleading you with going to alt coins", the answer is: this is impossible because of the tragedy of the commons. The smart money that would pump alt coins "to mislead you" would be losing out to the smart money that would go early into bitcoin. There is no "single boss" in smart money. So if smart money is convinced that bitcoin goes to $500 000 in a few years, its current price would already tend quickly to $500 000 because they would out-race one another to get in early and rip off one another.
This doesn't mean that bitcoin won't go to $500 000.-, but if smart money cannot know, you can't, either.
BTW, on the 5th of mai, bitcoin's market cap lost about $2 billion too. That's not a problem for highly speculative gamblers' tokens.