Bitcoin prediction market?

[stakhanov]

Is there a generalist bitcoin prediction market somewhere? Prediction markets are an awesome way to aggregate information, and seem like a perfect match for bitcoin. There used to be something called BitcoinFuture, but it seems dead. Any other projects?

Thanks!

[Stephen Gornick]

Is there a generalist bitcoin prediction market somewhere? Prediction markets are an awesome way to aggregate information, and seem like a perfect match for bitcoin. There used to be something called BitcoinFuture, but it seems dead. Any other projects?

Bets of Bitcoin:
 - http://www.BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37069.0

BTCSportsBet.com (predicting outcome of sporting events)
 - http://www.BTCSportsBet.com


A party who claims to fund your Intrade account using bitcoins  (suggestion - use escrow as this could possibly be just an attempted scam)
 - http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/listByUser/10829.page

[stakhanov]

You can't trade bets, right? If not, it's not as good as a prediction market, because the trading rate directly gives you a real-time estimate of the probability of the event.

Is there a generalist bitcoin prediction market somewhere? Prediction markets are an awesome way to aggregate information, and seem like a perfect match for bitcoin. There used to be something called BitcoinFuture, but it seems dead. Any other projects?

Bets of Bitcoin:
 - http://www.BetsOfBitco.in
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37069.0

BTCSportsBet.com (predicting outcome of sporting events)
 - http://www.BTCSportsBet.com

[Stephen Gornick]

You can't trade bets, right? If not, it's not as good as a prediction market, because the trading rate directly gives you a real-time estimate of the probability of the event.

Correct - the bets are not tradeable and payout occurs after the event occurs or the event date.

I added to my post above a method to use Bitcoins for funding an Intrade account.

[stakhanov]

That would be a great project indeed, unfortunately I don't have the time or energy to do it myself. But if somebody does it, I will definitely use it and promote it.

@stakhanov
You can code yourself new  betting platform, with Intrade-like
features You wish, but for Bitcoins.
Tho you'll need to convince people to trust your site
 somehow.
I hope , that in the not so distant future we'll have
distributed betting system, without necessity to trust
to server operator.

[mav]

I have made a platform for exactly this

https://www.bitcoinalafuture.com/

The aim was to have a data-friendly representation of future predictions. Bets-of-bitcoin has been seeing a few of these style of bets lately but it's not friendly as a data source.

This is a new service only about a week old, hopefully it picks up some traction.

It has a convenient link system so you can easily tell people how to predict against you - https://www.bitcoinalafuture.com/#price=13&lt=1&time=1347580800000

There's some more detail in the service announcements forum

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105121.0

I plan to make predictions 'trade-able' by paying the owner of a receive address to change it to your own address.

[FreeMoney]

A while back I talked with the owner of BTFuture.com which appears to be a working or nearly working but abandoned site and he is willing to sell but we never got as far as actually negotiating price.

I decided that I didn't like having to manually adjudicate results and didn't see a way around that.

I just checked and the site is gone.

[stakhanov]

It's sad to think that this code is probably going to rot somewhere, when it could be put to good use.

Maybe the community could pool money to open-source it?

A while back I talked with the owner of BTFuture.com which appears to be a working or nearly working but abandoned site and he is willing to sell but we never got as far as actually negotiating price.

I decided that I didn't like having to manually adjudicate results and didn't see a way around that.

I just checked and the site is gone.

[FreeMoney]

It's sad to think that this code is probably going to rot somewhere, when it could be put to good use.

Maybe the community could pool money to open-source it?

A while back I talked with the owner of BTFuture.com which appears to be a working or nearly working but abandoned site and he is willing to sell but we never got as far as actually negotiating price.

I decided that I didn't like having to manually adjudicate results and didn't see a way around that.

I just checked and the site is gone.

The first step would be to find out how much money the person wants.

I just checked and I was corresponding with jack @ btfuture.com. Since the domain seem to have changed owners I doubt you can get him there anymore.

[carbonpenguin]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34227_162-57554483/intrade-boots-u.s-residents-hours-after-feds-file-charges/

This is now a GOLDEN opportunity...

[Predictious]

We are launching an Intrade-type Bitcoin Prediction Market called Predictious. Right now the website is invite-only but we are giving away invites on this thread.

Update: Predictious has launched on July 11th 2013. Official Thread here.

[bytemaster]

A while back I talked with the owner of BTFuture.com which appears to be a working or nearly working but abandoned site and he is willing to sell but we never got as far as actually negotiating price.

I decided that I didn't like having to manually adjudicate results and didn't see a way around that.

I just checked and the site is gone.

No need to manually adjudicate results given a large enough market.   Nash Equilibrium will force people to 'settle'  their positions honestly if the only way with withdraw your funds from the betting pool is to agree to the split ratio on a market.  Those who are willing to settle closest to 50/50 will be most likely to get their funds out of escrow in an ambiguous outcome.  The honest players in the market will tilt the price for getting out of escrow in one direction or another and after the price crosses a 75:25 split, the network could automatically call it.   

This entire algorithm could be implemented on a blockchain and be very reliable.