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Author Topic: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins!  (Read 32859 times)
Predictious
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July 29, 2013, 09:24:15 PM
 #1



Predictious - The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market.

Predictious has launched on July 11th 2013, we are starting this official thread as we would love you to try and win Bitcoins! Please also provide feedback, we really want to hear suggestions on how we can make it better.

A true Prediction Market:
Predictious is a true Prediction Market, similar to a futures exchange. Here are two big advantages for users to bet on Predictious and not on the other betting websites:
  • Users decide on the odds. If their prediction is right, they will win mBTC10 (= BTC0.01) per share. Most if not all other websites use a pari-mutuel betting system: all bets are placed in a pool, and when the outcome of the event is determined, the winners share the funds in that pool, which is very unfair for early traders (the odds may change over time).
  • Predictious is like a stock market, users don't have to wait for the event to occur, they can re-sell their shares whenever they want, to unlock profit early.

Why you should use Predictious:

Categories::
And if you want to submit a market, please send us suggestions!

Useful Links::
Predictious Official website
Predictious Support Center Support Center
Contact the Predictious team Contact
Predictious API
@Predictious Twitter
Predictious Facebook page
Predictious on Google+

Screenshots::




Again, you can try Predictious with only a few millibitcoins (mBTC1 = BTC0.001), all you need is a Google Account.

Please post here any question you may have and/or feedback.
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coinprize
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July 30, 2013, 08:44:15 PM
 #2

The Premier.. Huh

Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.

So that I can compare yours and others.  Grin

Predictious
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July 30, 2013, 09:47:20 PM
 #3

Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.

So that I can compare yours and others.  Grin

Hi Coinprize,

here are the 2 other Bitcoin prediction markets we know of: bitbet.us and betsofbitco.in, however they use bet pooling, which is unfair for early traders and doesn't allow you to trade out of your position (with Predictious, the users set the odds themselves, and they can sell their bets before the event ends).

There are also a few sport Bitcoin betting sites: nitrogensports.com, bitbook.biz, anonibet.com.

Betfair would be our biggest competitor in the fiat currency world.

Hope this helps, don't hesitate if you have any further questions.
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August 01, 2013, 09:38:17 AM
 #4

Could you list some of your competitors for me?
About 4~6 would be fine.

So that I can compare yours and others.  Grin

Hi Coinprize,

here are the 2 other Bitcoin prediction markets we know of: bitbet.us and betsofbitco.in, however they use bet pooling, which is unfair for early traders and doesn't allow you to trade out of your position (with Predictious, the users set the odds themselves, and they can sell their bets before the event ends).

There are also a few sport Bitcoin betting sites: nitrogensports.com, bitbook.biz, anonibet.com.

Betfair would be our biggest competitor in the fiat currency world.

Hope this helps, don't hesitate if you have any further questions.

Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.

█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
▓▓▓▓▓  BIT-X.comvvvvvvvvvvvvvvi
→ CREATE ACCOUNT 
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August 01, 2013, 05:02:53 PM
 #5



Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.

Or a Small bounty for unique ideas that generate a lot of bets...

  !>                    122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n                 Heh!
Hfleer
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August 02, 2013, 06:41:23 AM
 #6



Nice, you should look at some of competitors for ideas to add more events also, so you can see what's popular.

Or a Small bounty for unique ideas that generate a lot of bets...

  !>                    122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n                 Heh!

I think one of the older Prediction markets did that at one time, not sure if it's still ongoing.

█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
▓▓▓▓▓  BIT-X.comvvvvvvvvvvvvvvi
→ CREATE ACCOUNT 
▓▓▓▓▓
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Predictious
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August 03, 2013, 10:00:38 PM
 #7

We now have the following new markets on Predictious:

Bitcoin:

Business:

Sport:
flix
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August 03, 2013, 10:33:45 PM
 #8


Eventually you should have at least
...the top 3 Nasdaq stocks by mkt cap.  ( http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_mega&o=-marketcap)
*AAPL
*GOOG
*MSFT

...top 3 NYSE
*XOM
*JNJ
*WMT

...top 3 currency pairs       (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/)

*EURUSD
*USDJPY
*USDCHF

...and top 3 commodities   (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/)
*Gold
*Oil
*Copper

Also
*US 10 yr T-Bond yield   http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

But perhaps a weekly bet for each is too much... monthly maybe?
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August 04, 2013, 02:54:10 AM
 #9

Cheap (?) hedging! Although not just for stocks. May be more useful with the price of Bitcoin itself.
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August 04, 2013, 08:36:17 AM
 #10

Sounds interesting
Predictious
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August 04, 2013, 11:34:54 AM
 #11

...top 3 currency pairs       (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/)

*EURUSD
*USDJPY
*USDCHF

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added:
- EUR-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- GBP-USD exchange rate August 30th 2013
- Dow Jones Industrial Average close August 30th 2013
- Close price of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) on August 30th 2013
and we'll consider adding more.
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August 05, 2013, 11:21:18 AM
 #12



Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp

Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.

Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.

As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.
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Thank you! Thank you! ...


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August 05, 2013, 12:45:16 PM
 #13

Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:

https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale

The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.
Predictious
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August 05, 2013, 01:36:14 PM
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Great. Now what you need are market makers. Nobody wants to trade a thin market and nobody wants large (or non-existent) bid-ask spreads. Normally the way to kick-start this a bit is by getting a few pro traders to create a market by entering multiple orders. This increases liquidity and makes trading more attractive.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp

Good market makers can generate a steady profit, just like good bookies. If you can attract a few of them to your site, you will ensure more liquidity and market depth, making it much more interesting for punters, and a much more efficient prediction market.

Either that... or get a dozen Beta-testers and give away a few BTC on the condition that they bet on every single statement.

As a trader who is very much fed up with the paperwork involved in traditional fx, options, equity trading platforms... I am very much looking forward to your success. If you can tap into the FX market, you could be huge.


Thanks for your feedback, we are working with a few people interested in doing market making for a few specific markets. We also have a Trading API for people who wants to become maket makers for Predictious.

Uh... the event date for all of these bets seems wrong:

https://www.predictious.com/entertainment/breaking-bad-season-finale

The Breaking Bad Season 5 Finale is not August 10th. That is merely when the Season 5 (second half) starts.

Yes, but in theory, the characters may die at any episode. People can't all watch it at the same time (as opposed to a sport event), and we don't want to favor people who can watch it "live".
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August 05, 2013, 02:11:11 PM
 #15

Hey, just found out about this site and I am very excited for it. I was a huge fan of inTrade and have been waiting for a BTC replacement. Following up on the above comment, will you only be entertaining markets which have a set close date? I understand the difficulty in settling markets with a "floating" close, but excluding them will cut out many potentially popular ones. Is there any chance you will be including them going forward? Such markets which were present on inTrade or follow the inTrade spirit (most with "floating" close dates):

- North Korean military action market/Kim Jong-Un leadership market
- Edward Snowden/Julian Assange asylum market
- Global Warming market
- Extra-terrestrial market
- Iran/US conflict market
- Bashaar Assad presidency market
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August 06, 2013, 10:08:22 AM
 #16

Hi,
I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.

.







.
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August 06, 2013, 12:09:18 PM
 #17

I've seen similar sites and I just don't understand it well enough. Say I want to say YES for an item and it theres a green "BID" price and a red "sell" price, which would I pick? I assume it would be the green one or something. And my payout would be 10? Its confusing to me. I wish they just said click here if you want yes, you pay this. Click here if you want no you pay this price. Payout is always 10mbtc. Please explain it for me, I apologize but would like to give your site a shot once I understand it better.
If you think an event will occur, you need to buy shares (the green button). The price indicated in the green button is the ask, at which you can immediately buy a share. If your prediction is correct, you will receive 10mBTC per share. So assuming you paid your shares 2 mBTC, you will make 8 mBTC profit per share (4:1 odds). You can also place a limit order to a price lower than the ask, and wait for the price to go down, if you think it will.
If you think an event will NOT occur, you can sell shares. You can sell even if you don't own a share, that's called short selling. In that case, you will own a short share. Short shares are redeemed at 10 mBTC if the event does NOT occur.
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August 06, 2013, 12:36:41 PM
 #18


Looking better now, site seems a bit more saturated with available bets.  Still seeing big spreads and low volume, but that's probably to be expected for a while.

█████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████
▓▓▓▓▓  BIT-X.comvvvvvvvvvvvvvvi
→ CREATE ACCOUNT 
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August 06, 2013, 12:44:32 PM
 #19

Hello,

Bitcoin is undergoing a hard fork to Scrypt by block 256000.

You must take action by then: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268902.msg2876840;boardseen#new
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August 06, 2013, 01:10:02 PM
 #20

Hello,

Bitcoin is undergoing a hard fork to Scrypt by block 256000.

You must take action by then: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268902.msg2876840;boardseen#new

Not sure why you would post that in this thread.  Are you suggesting this as a bet on Predictious?

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▓▓▓▓▓  BIT-X.comvvvvvvvvvvvvvvi
→ CREATE ACCOUNT 
▓▓▓▓▓
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