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股市崩盘资金会涌入黄金?别天真,若1987年股灾重演无人幸免
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Topic: 股市崩盘资金会涌入黄金?别天真,若1987年股灾重演无人幸免 (Read 91 times)
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股市崩盘资金会涌入黄金?别天真,若1987年股灾重演无人幸免
November 23, 2017, 12:29:07 AM
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春节以来美股屡创历史新高,但通常情况下与美股走势反向的黄金却没有下跌,而是与美股一同上涨。有分析认为,不少基金选择买入黄金来对冲风险。值得一提的是,今年迄今黄金的表现甚至优于美股,这表明股市已经被过度高估了。
如果股市崩盘,1987年股灾重演,黄金真的能够做到有效的风险规避吗?拥有25年贵金属及能源领域投资经验的私募基金Echobay Partners合伙人、金融博客MarketSlant专栏作家Vince Lanci认为并不见得,通过购买黄金来对冲风险是一把双刃剑。”
via Lanci:
黄金能够反映一些在基本面上不易察觉的忧虑
欧元区的选举
委内瑞拉、希腊、意大利问题
印度货币变化
投资黄金意识的增强
值得注意的是,越来越多的股票风险规避者开始不断地加持黄金,并通过这种方式对冲股票市场的风险,这似乎可以看做是他们看好黄金的证据。当然,这也反映了宏观层面,市场焦虑意识的提高。
我们需要重新考虑一个不容忽视的重要历史警告。
1987年的崩溃对于黄金来说是场灾难
1987年10月19日,纽约股市一开盘,道·琼斯指数经过一段颤动后突然下跌,整个纽约股市惊慌失措,投资者纷纷抛售黄金去填补股票的空缺,带动了黄金市场的崩盘。
当人们都匆忙冲向出口的时候,多数人将被踩踏至死。
基金经理对于黄金市场的体量不甚了解,纷纷抛售黄金导致黄金市场崩盘。直到他们的投资顾问建议清算盈利产品的时候,他们才吐出股票仓位,黄金也从有效的套期保值转为亏损。
不少基金仍不懂退出流动性有多么重要,我们强烈建议人们可以持有黄金,以便在下次股灾突然来临时保护好自己,前提是你不加杠杆。
被看好的股票
历史不会重演,现在许多基金投资人都了解风险,但是,那些只认识伯南克和耶伦的80、90后”基金经理可能会忽略风险的存在。
只将黄金当作股市套期保值的手段是十分危险的,尤其对于一些长期杠杆投资者来说。如果近期对冲基金把黄金作为对冲事件性风险”,比如英国退欧等的历史是参考指标的话,黄金的风险是实质性的。
如果股市下跌,可以预见的是,空头会抛售黄金来补仓,多头会期待美联储推出第四轮量化宽松政策或在短期内停止加息,权衡二者,黄金市场的波动不会太大。
一个睿智的投资人应该期望股市不要暴跌,而是横盘调整,因为这是未来经济预期平衡的标志,良性通胀对收益的影响带来物价水平的上涨,会让股票投资人重新关注黄金这个被低估的资产。
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