What is the peak of this bull run?

[zentdex]

Considering verifiable information. A year ago there is a 10% cost increment frame the long stretch of November to December and if this same wonder happened the current 9k cost in addition to a 10% could close a 10k outcome. You are ideal about the successive here and there swings of cost. As you could see in the market relative quality list when the cost goes up the RSI signals an overbought showcase which at that point in the end took after by sudden value dumps.

[MickeyT2008]

Hahah so you are really saying that the price will fall to $2k again?

Let me tell you that it is almost impossible mate, because the market is not the same as it was on 2013 when it felt from $1000 to $300 in just a few hours.

There are more than 150 billion dollars invested in bitcoin right now, when the price was $1000, there were less than 15 billion, it means that there was much less people than now, and of course, less money in here.

People would not react by the same way as before, just because we know how can everything re-act if everybody decides to dump their coins.

And no, it would not happen, if you are so scared, then why dont you dump your coins?

[gentlemand]

There are more than 150 billion dollars invested in bitcoin right now, when the price was $1000, there were less than 15 billion, it means that there was much less people than now, and of course, less money in here.

Don't get market cap mixed up with real dollars. There's nowhere near 150 billion directly spent on it and there's no way you could extract 5-10% of that without the price collapsing to zero.

There are a lot of new people. They've also never really been put to the test like people post 2013 were. I don't think they can be depended on not to panic dump. There may well be serious money waiting on the sidelines to scoop it up. We shall see.

[LoyceV]

I think there's going to be a big adjustment in 2018.

Just like there have been big adjustments in every other year. Bitcoin is unstable, but until this very second has only been going up on average.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Bitcoin has dropped that much in the past, for instance 2013 and earlier, but has matured a lot since then. I realize it's very risky to say "it's different now", but it is! Mt.Gox manipulation caused a huge uptrend followed by a hard crash. The recent very big attack from Bitcoin Cash only had a "small" ($2000 drop) and short (it was higher again in just days!) effect.

There are more than 150 billion dollars invested in bitcoin right now, when the price was $1000, there were less than 15 billion, it means that there was much less people than now, and of course, less money in here.

This isn't how market cap works: a market cap of X doesn't mean X has been invested.
The 24h volume is $4B now, while the market cap went up $9B in this time. And those $4B includes sales too, it's not just new dollars flowing in.

[malikusama]

The rapid increase is no doubt alarming but don't expect like in the past (2013) because we can't predict by referring to the past situations and downfalls. Bitcoin has changed a lot with the passage of time during the past couple of years due to its community, the community has become much more stronger than before and there is a low chance that there would be a huge downfall like in 2013. Nobody can exactly predict the peak of this bull run, however i think we will have to face a dip after $10K.

[illyiller]

I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.

I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Does anyone else see this?

I tend to agree about the upside, but $2k is overshooting the downside. We usually see price overshoot these big psychological targets. People have been aiming at $10k for years now, and I bet many will take profit there. It's only natural that these profit takers will get run over in a final blaze of glory, a blow off top, an eiffel tower....

So yes, my sights are set a few thousand dollars higher than $10k for that reason. Also, extrapolating based on the last two runs puts targets in the $12k-$14k range. You never know in this kind of market, though!

[1Referee]

I think it makes perfect sense. There's a tidal wave of new blood arriving every hour. Because of that predictions on past behaviour and predictions in general are pointless.

In quiet times of the past it was probably all the same exchange whales playing with the price. That's not the case any more. Current exchange movements could be a combination of the dawn of Wall St bumping into an army of rabid noobs or anything in between.

That's not going to make for steady charts. Many more diverse mindsets are going to be clashing on markets.

You have a point there, which indicates that everyone (including myself) is/was too much focused on how the market was performing before all this started, and based on that assumed that things would more or less remain the same, which isn't the case. This makes me even more confident about my decision to (at least temporarily) stop trading this market. I will however keep my selling point for this bull run at ~$9500 just in case a correction happens somewhere around the $10,000 level. If there will be no correction in the short term, then so be it.

[hydeevanz]

Look at the history of btc, shares whatever, they pretty much follow a steady long term growth rate.

However, there are always peaks and troughs on the way.

At the moment btc is way ahead of the long term trend and there is no way that this can be sustained based on historical correction. That doesn't mean it's going to happen now but it's very likely too soon.

I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.

I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Does anyone else see this?

I am also expecting that it will increment i think $10,000 to $12,000 and followed by a big fall but not $2,000 because that is way too low to imagine. Maybe a price correction will happen but it won't dropped that much. However, no matter what happen, we should still be ready to face if ever the value dropped in just a blink.

[jorneyflair]

Look at the history of btc, shares whatever, they pretty much follow a steady long term growth rate.

However, there are always peaks and troughs on the way.

At the moment btc is way ahead of the long term trend and there is no way that this can be sustained based on historical correction. That doesn't mean it's going to happen now but it's very likely too soon.

I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.

I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Does anyone else see this?

Spot on analysis in my opinion.

Long term growth is one of the most important guiding principles when it comes to bitcoin price appreciation. You pretty much know that bitcoin is goign to go up in the long term since it is naturally dis-inflationary and the inflation is controlled, compared to fiat inflation.

But, that doesn't mean that you're going to see a linear growth curve. It's going to boom and bust at certain points in the cycle. Right now we're in a boom, and once this boom is over there will be a bust. It could take us under $10k, but we'll see.

[p i e c e]

You know, friend, when today in the morning I saw the price of Bitcoin, I thought that the moment of a breakthrough happened. In my opinion, now it will rise only. Probably the peak of this run will be 10 thousand, and then the market will be stabilized for some time.