What is the peak of this bull run?

[coinycoiny]

Look at the history of btc, shares whatever, they pretty much follow a steady long term growth rate.

However, there are always peaks and troughs on the way.

At the moment btc is way ahead of the long term trend and there is no way that this can be sustained based on historical correction. That doesn't mean it's going to happen now but it's very likely too soon.

I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.

I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

Does anyone else see this?

[Iranus]

It's difficult to use the past to predict the future with asset prices.

Since there's nothing really pegging down the price or any particularly strong fundamentals right now, the fact that the 2013 bubble peaked at $1000 is pretty much irrelevant to how it'll peak this time around.

It definitely seems likely that a correction will result in a massive crash though.

[mathiaslivis]

I think there's going to be a big adjustment in 2018. But I don't agree with the idea that it's going to crash or slide. The main reason is that the market is now quite different from what it was a few years ago. Now the market is very big money, in recent days, some of the big funds are already entering the market.

[coinycoiny]

in recent days, some of the big funds are already entering the market.

Any proof of this statement!!!

[Javanewstar]

I personally feel that there will be a big drop in bitcoin at the time of the $10,000, because $10,000 is the price that many people are selling. So I think that's a top in the short term.

[elie_s]

I don't think bitcoins will have limits it's doesn't have a number to reach every1 is waiting for it to reach 10k and sell it maybe this will make the bitcoin loose there value I spec that in long term it will go higher then this and more bitcoins will be circulated globally

[BitcoinHodler]

So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.

what "past performance" is that? the always rising market where we see 30% corrections in worse case scenario which never even last longer than a month before price corrects back up to where it was before and continue rising?
that won't take us to $2k.

or maybe you saw the one time Mt Gox 500% pump within a month and think that can repeat?

[Lucius]

It would be logical to have a correction of price at one point,this has always happened and it is likely to happen this time too.But it is difficult to predict when this bull run will stop,there are currently no indications that this will happen.I think we should not compared things from 2013 and this year,this is something quite different in every way.The number of users has increased several times,bitcoin has become popular and known to the wider audience and big players become investors.This price is just reflection of supply and demand in my opinion.

I am aware that 10k$ will be point where some people will sell,but I do not think we can slide down to 2000$, maybe in the worst scenario 5000$ would be the bottom line.

[Xavofat]

always rising market

Always rising market - in the last two years.

where we see 30% corrections in worse case scenario

There was a bubble in 2011 which was more significant than that.  There was two bubbles in 2013 that were worse than that.  In all markets there are periodically bull markets and bear markets.

which never even last longer than a month

Once again, there have been three periods lasting longer than a month, one of which lasted for two years.

or maybe you saw the one time Mt Gox 500% pump within a month and think that can repeat?

Bubbles can occur, yes.

[bitcoinveda]

Bitcoin bull run continues until it reaches 25000 dollars in 2018 Bitcoin already and will exceed everybody expectations in coming months and break it owns All time high

[gentlemand]

No idea. Don't listen to anyone else who declares anything. Everyone winds up looking like a tosser.

Even old school traders are starting to get stirred - https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/934574285124812800

The most important factor is one that's not really talked about enough which is - discovery.

The more people learn and discover and want in the further back any proper fall is pushed. And discovery could continue for far longer than anyone expects.

[markleal]

Look at the history of btc, shares whatever, they pretty much follow a steady long term growth rate.
However, there are always peaks and troughs on the way.
At the moment btc is way ahead of the long term trend and there is no way that this can be sustained based on historical correction. That doesn't mean it's going to happen now but it's very likely too soon.
I'm seeing an awful lot of similarity to when we approached $1000. Every one getting excited, almost everyone hyping the market and nobody wanting to miss the big $1k. And then we broke through that and we thought the sky is the limit. I think what followed was a sudden realisation that this was all on hype and not organic growth and as soon as it dips it snowballs as people want to make sure they get out while they are still in profit.
I might be wrong but I see the same thing happening here today, we are being drawn to $10k on excitement.
So I expect to see us smash through $10k perhaps even $11k or $12k followed by a big fall, maybe down to $2k if past performance is any guide.
Does anyone else see this?

Hi there coinycoiny! You got a lot of question and presumptions there. Let me answer first your main question in a simple answer there is a big chance to hit 10k before 2017 ends. Why? Because as what you said, based on historical data. Last year there is a 10% price increase form the month of November to December and if this same phenomenon happened the current 9k price plus a ten percent could conclude a 10k result. You are right about the frequent up and down swings of price. As you could notice in the market relative strength index when the price goes up the RSI signals an overbought market which then eventually followed by sudden price dumps. Most of the people will wish to make the price low so that they could buy again and sell when the price breakout again.  Hope I help a little. 

[BitcoinHodler]

or maybe you saw the one time Mt Gox 500% pump within a month and think that can repeat?

Bubbles can occur, yes.

yeah but that still doesn't mean we are going to see an 83% drop for no reason just because it has happened once before due to a 1-month-pump.

[coinycoiny]

Those of you who don't think it could fall more than 30% go back and look at the history of bitcoin.

Last big fall was from $1200 to i think it was $187 or thereabouts.

Yes I know it more people are involved now but it could still fall by a similar percentage which is why I say it might fall to $2k.

I'm not saying it will but we are well above the normal rate of expansion today, just like we were when we hit $1k.

Just be prepared to loose that amount.

Of course holders will say hodl, but I say be ready to sell and buy back at a big discount!

[aoihs00]

Thats the logical assumption of bitcoin fate based on the historic data but what believe is the situation was different back then and now for the bitcoin.


Then:

Not much of the people were into bitcoin and it was very ambiguous currency and people had fear of loosing money over its investment. Most of the people did not know in what they are investing the money so they did not put much money into it. This grew the bitcoin market very very slowly and whenever there was situation of panic almost everyone left the market and hence the major drops in it.


Now:

More than billion people are into the bitcoin and everyone knows what bitcoin is. They know different strategies for it and they know very well how the market grows here. They know what decentralised currency means and how it can be manipulated by ourself. They have newer opportunities of using bitcoin, merchants, stock brokers, kids, everyone is into bitcoin.



So I’m pretty sure that this will change the scenario and it will only be unidirectional.

[1Referee]

No idea. Don't listen to anyone else who declares anything. Everyone winds up looking like a tosser.

Even old school traders are starting to get stirred - https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/934574285124812800

It's insane how nothing seems to make sense anymore. Everything that most of time times would more or less be a spot on analysis, did hold somewhat of a decent chunk of value before the current rush started, but now it's all garbage speculation/analysis, regardless of how much time and professionalism is being put into it. I used to exploit repetitive patterns in times the market was in a more active phase, but have stopped recently because of the fact that nothing works out anymore. I turned into a sole holder, which seems to be the safest side to be on in current times. Some times you need to admit that you can't beat the market, and this is definitely my way of admitting that.

[mangkucrypto]

I personally feel that there will be a big drop in bitcoin at the time of the $10,000, because $10,000 is the price that many people are selling. So I think that's a top in the short term.

I am not sure with this because I think there are many people which want to hold their bitcoin and I think they have their own goal price. and if the price is not reaching their goal price, they will not sell their bitcoin. but I see a big drop in bitcoin could happen because the correction price will always come after the higher price so we should be ready for this and don't get panic.

[alyssa85]

I was there for the 2013/14 bull run as well.

What I remember back then was there was no talk of bubbles at all. Everyone was convinced it was moon time. And of course it wasn't.

This time, plenty of people are talking about bubbles (including this thread). Which means we're not at the peak yet. They say bull markets climb a wall of worry. And it's only when the last bear capitulates and decides, heck it's going to the moon, that the market turns and falls. The opposite happens in a bear market - when the last bull capitulates and decides there will never be a recovery, is when the market turns up. This is what happened in 2016, when people were convinced the flippening would happen and Ether would take the crown.

I don't think we're at the peak just yet, simply because so many people are talking about the market falling.

[gentlemand]

It's insane how nothing seems to make sense anymore.

I think it makes perfect sense. There's a tidal wave of new blood arriving every hour. Because of that predictions on past behaviour and predictions in general are pointless.

In quiet times of the past it was probably all the same exchange whales playing with the price. That's not the case any more. Current exchange movements could be a combination of the dawn of Wall St bumping into an army of rabid noobs or anything in between.

That's not going to make for steady charts. Many more diverse mindsets are going to be clashing on markets.

[MNDan]

Solved...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.580