Technical analysis comments on Bitcoin

[Trading]

Three warnings:
1) There is no future price to predict. Human decisions make the price. Trying to predict human decisions has trashed almost all human "sciences". So, the price is unpredictable. One can only try to point out possible scenarios. In a market like MtGox, one or two powerful traders can destroy the accuracy of any prediction.

2) Technical analysis must be simple and evident to any observer in order to be generally understood and its outcome adopted: some trend lines and some patterns.

3) This is not a recommendation of trading.




There is a down trend line connecting 3 recent highs that currently points out to a resistance around 121. The current trend is bearish.
The two support lines have no technical meaning, since both have only two price points, but when one has almost nothing, one works with what one has. The uptrend line connecting the low 50 and the higher low 79 is pointing out to a support around 90. If breached, the supports seem to be 79 and then 55/50. Then we have the 32, the old resistance, converted in support.

[tutkarz]

To me trend is rising because more and more people know about bitcoin and want to have it too. More shops are using bitcoins everyday. Someone is trying to keep price low but he is playing against trend so probably loosing coins in the process and loosing its value for sure. The good thing about this is more people have time to jump in cheap beacuse if there would be no so called "crash" meantime we would have $1000 already.

[Trading]

That is a fundamental argument. I'm limiting my comments to what I see on the chart: technical analysis comments.

[jolly-roger]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-US#q=bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

looks similar?

[Trading]

Yes, after the crash of the price, interest on bitcoin crashed also.

[tutkarz]

Yes, after the crash of the price, interest on bitcoin crashed also.

But is that bad? People who lost interest was mostly ones who wanted to make quick money. Now price will stabilise which might draw more merchants and make stable growth.
Besides no one knows if people who made first bubble are not going to make another.

[Trading]

There can't be higher prices (or bubbles) without new money going into the market to buy bitcoins. As price goes up, it's necessary more money to buy the same amount of bitcoins. The lost of interest in bitcoin suggests that there won't be new money that soon. But this is also a fundamental argument and not a technical one.

[tutkarz]

There can't be higher prices (or bubbles) without new money going into the market to buy bitcoins. As price goes up, it's necessary more money to buy the same amount of bitcoins. The lost of interest in bitcoin suggests that there won't be new money that soon. But this is also a fundamental argument and not a technical one.

Why they cant be higher? If seller will set price and buyer will agree on that then there could be any price. Amount of cash does not matter if one will buy 1000 bitcoins for $1 or 1 for $1000, the price will be set regardless of amount traded.
People who already sold they coins have money to make another bubble. I don't think so speculates will leave their favourite game

[jolly-roger]

Yes, after the crash of the price, interest on bitcoin crashed also.

Or price is just reflecting the interest.

[Trading]

The downtrend line identified in the previous post has stand all this time (with a fake breach on 20-21 June).
A technical relevant uptrend line was formed giving a currently (naturally, since it's a uptrend line, tomorrow the support will be higher) temporary support around 93.
The downtrend channel suggests that this support will eventually be breach, perhaps after another test of the downtrend line. There isn't another strong support. The lower line of the channel, the 88 and 78 lower prices are weak supports.

[Trading]

Breach of the long term uptrend line. Next stop, 54-50 usd?

[pulsecat]

Don't you assume this market flatness is caused just by low trading volumes due to the summer season? If you look at the daily chart you will notice how volumes fall dramatically since the beginning of May http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90zigDailyztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zv

[Trading]

The famous top price of 31.89 USD, back in 2011, was made on 8 June. In 2012, the top price of 15.41 was on 17 August. The summer season might determine low volumes, but hardly a crash. There are less buyers, but also less sellers. Anyway, a crash is a crash. When your supports are breached, you better watch out.
Right now, the 65 are holding, but the huge pockets are waiting at 50-56. Resistances at 69.6, 71 and 75. Then, two big ones currently around 85 and the major one (the down trend on my first charter) at 98.5. The break of the 75 could signal a change of median term trend from bear to bullish. I doubt that, but who knows what will happen...